2016 Premiership Odds

[DOC]

Should that be North and Sturt $41?

[Fricky]

Should that be North and Sturt $41?

Yes, my bad. It has been amended now

[robranisgod]

I find it strange that the two sides who made big profits last year are the rank outsiders. In North's case I think 140/1 is more realistic but I think back to the mid to late 70s through to the mid 80s when making money equated to success on the field.

[Dog_ger2]

Will Port or Adelaide ever win?

So its really only about 8 teams.

Legs & westies again.

Maybe Eagles..

That's out of three then.

Time will tell..

My tip Legs..

[Second Team]

Surely after drafts the markets have to change. With westies hit hard by draft, the Eagles top of all 3 grades after minor round without anyone going. Surely the Eagles move to deserving favourites going into 2016.

Not after the way you played in the grand final.

[Dog_ger2]

Just making it a conversation,

It is possibly only time until the Power and Crows eventually win it,

Or is it made impossible for that to happen?

[Wedgie]

Quite the opposite Dogger, the odds are hugely in their favour but these franchises cannot buy heart and soul that SANFL clubs and their fans have.

[Dog_ger2]

Heart and soul doesn't always win, my very good Rooster Friend.

Those days are gone when we lost West Torrens...

AFL is always going to over run us.

TV rights...

The Goldern years of SANFL years are gone.

[Panther Pack]

Jump on the Panthers those are tasty odds!!!!

Reckon we will be right in the thick of it

[Bounce of the ball]

Is Don Scott involved again ?

[on the rails]

Jump on the Panthers those are tasty odds!!!!

Reckon we will be right in the thick of it

Bookies taking odds on the battle for the spoon then??? ☺LOL

[Wedgie]

North into $26. Sturt still $41.
WTF?
North should be at longer odds than Leicester were at the start of the EPL season. I'll honestly be surprised if North win a game this year.

[another grub]

After round 1................

Norwood 3.75

Eagles 4.75

Adelaide Reserves 5.00

West Adelaide 7.00

Port Adelaide Magpies 7.00

Centrals 8.00

South Adelaide 13.00

Glenelg 26.00

Sturt 41.00

North Adelaide 41.00

[another grub]

How many sides can win this years premiership and why?

[PatowalongaPirate]

How many sides can win this years premiership and why?

Just the one because they're the rules.

[Bounce of the ball]

[SimonH]

Just making it a conversation,

It is possibly only time until the Power and Crows eventually win it,

Or is it made impossible for that to happen?

If they were in the competition indefinitely, it would only be a matter of time 'til they won it. But they won't be, one way or t'other—within a couple of decades or so, either they will leave, or the competition will transmogrify into something not widely recognised as the SANFL any more.

It's far from impossible for one of the AFL clubs' reserves to win a SANFL flag. 18 months ago, one of them was only a kick away from doing it.

It's just that the odds are gamed by the fact that AFL reserves sides, playing against firsts teams of their opponents, will tend to underperform in finals compared with regular season. There are now enough AFL reserves teams that have played enough seasons in enough state leagues, that the records are there. There are other posts on the topic that I couldn't be bothered digging up now, but there are some striking examples in NSW alone both from the Swans reserves and in recent years the GWS reserves, where regularly repeated 100 point+ smashings of opponents in the H&A season segued into 'surprising' finals losses.

There are multiple reasons for this. A major one is what's technically known as 'giving a shit'. A second is that players' bodies wear down over the course of a year of AFL footy, increasing injuries and 'resting' for older AFL players at the tail end of the season, and the club is automatically taking the best and most in-form players out of the reserves to replace them. Third, very significant where it applies, is the fact that (in non-GFs) it's generally in the AFL club's interest for their state-league team to lose if their AFL side is out, so their young players commence their off-season break sooner (and so get back to pre-season training for the next year sooner, after their minimum break under the AFL players' award). Fourth are the state league finals qualification rules which have a slightly limiting effect on the reserves sides' September strength.

Adelaide reserves will no doubt hand out some more smashings in the H&A season. Unless the AFC has an exceptionally lucky run with injuries all year, I wouldn't get on them to win the flag, though.

[topsywaldron]

After round 1................Adelaide Reserves 5.00 Port Reserves 7.00

Fixed that for you.

Unless the AFC has an exceptionally lucky run with injuries all year, I wouldn't get on them to win the flag, though.

That sound you hear is the hearts of all the thousands of Raven's diehards breaking as they read this.

[another grub]

After round 2

Norwood 4.00

Adelaide Reserves 4.00

Eagles 5.00

West Adelaide 7.00

Port Adelaide Magpies 7.00

Centrals 8.00

South Adelaide 11.00

Glenelg 21.00

North Adelaide 31.00

Sturt 41.00

[SimonH]

Even though Norwood's absolute figure has gone down a little last week, still weird to see them listed as equal flag favourites on the same day that they proved themselves 10 goals worse than the (previously) undisputed worst team in the comp.

With Eagles and West losing fairly convincingly against opponents they were expected to outclass (and the other name at the top of the betting is a side that's never even made the finals), the SANFL is suddenly looking wide open this year.