MAY-Z wrote:
2) 2007 and world cup
i would think that the semi finals should be made up of australia, south africa, india and possibly the west indies or sri lanka but the fourth spot is quite open.
the biggest chance i think is south africa as the pitches will be reasonably lifeless and the grounds are small. i think they have the best batting line up to succeed in those conditions with smith, gibbs, kallis, boucher, pollock, kemp and hall all capable of playing big quick innings in those conditions. they may get found out a little with the ball but with kemp back bowling recently it does give them another option.
based on what i have ssen in south africe pakistan wont be any good despite their batting depth as their bowlers are just not up to it and can concede scores very quickly with no ability to bowl yorkers.
sri lanka will also have to rely on their batting as their bowling gives 30 overs of very hittable deliveries- they would have easily won their last series in new zealand if someone other than vaas or murali could bowl effectively. new zealand and the west indies are very similar to this and will need to bat very well due to a lack of depth in the bowling- for that reason they cant win.
england may have turned a corner, but it wouldnt take much for teh old habits to resurface. with the addition of pietersen to the middle order it does give a good balance to the batting with a good mixture of hitters and accumulators. another team where the bowling could be an issue but if plunkett can continue to take early wickets that gives flintoff and panesar a good shot at the middle/lower order.
indias batting on paper looks ghood and they definately have the ability with a good balance to th eline up and they have bowlers who should be ably to back the powerful batting line-up up, although sehwag is out of form it only takes a moment for a player like him to get back to his best.
australia must be feeling real low right now and with some disruption to the early round sides inevitable it is probably lucky that south africa are the only challengers early. for a good side they seem to be the only team that doesnt know their best team which could be the downfall.
my tip is for south africa to beat india in the final.
Great summary here May-Z and I agree with you in most parts, except:
England - I don't think that the bowling is as much of an issue as you may think. Jimmy Anderson will return for the World Cup, and if he and Liam Plunkett pick up where they left off in Australia on the reverse-swing conducive wickets of the Caribbean, then England are well and truly on their way. Throw in Freddie Flintoff (relinquished once again from the captaincy -we all know what he can do when he is), Monty Panesar and Saj Mahmood and you should have (in theory) a fair quality attack over the 50 overs.
The batting line-up is also OK. Strauss had a shocker in Australia, but I think a change of scenery at the World Cup will do him good. His spot may be under pressure at the moment from Ed Joyce, especially as Pietersen will be back. Loye will probably retain his spot purely on the basis that he can smash a quick-fire 30 to 40 and take advantage of the early field restrictions. Bell is good for 50 or 60 and Pietersen and Collingwood will compliment each other well, as we have seen.
I think that the final four will be Australia, South Africa, England and India.
