SANFL Rationalisation to 8 Clubs

[Grahaml]

I think the bookie is not far from running out of business!

Seriously, what sort of time frame are you talking? No doubt in my mind that in 100 years there will not be the same 9 clubs. Some new clubs might be there, some merged clubs, some clubs just gone completely. But if you're talking even the next 20 years there's only a very small chance of any club folding or merging.

You can argue for hours that if this and that were to happen then a couple might merge, but which teams haven't been looking good in the last 10 years? Centrals are obviously looking good, but the eagles have been mainstays in the major round, North, West and Glenelg made the dance in recent years, South and Port had years under Pyman and Cahill where fans went into the next season rembering finals won and looking forward to the next. Sturt won the flag in 02 and have been serious players in the last couple of seasons while Norwood are looking strong for the first time since 02 when they made the prelim. It doesn't look good for South and West on the field right now but how long since it was Norwood and Glenelg?

It goes in cycles and all will have good seasons, bad seasons, make losses from time to time but the strength of this comp is our representation of all metro adelaide and even right across the state. If we lose that we weaken the overall competition by losing access to a massive amount of fans and possibly kids who decide if they can't play AFL they'll play amateurs.

[am Bays]

You can forget on-field performace being the reason why clubs will seek a merger. Clubs will fold or merge based on the off-field performance - profit/loss and asset base. Yes on-field performance affects that indirectly but primarily the off-field performance will govern which clubs survive.

IMO it is odds on that by 2015 one SANFL club will fold or two will merge for the following reasons:
1. Expansion of the AFL (populated market place)
2. SANFL having to change its funding model for Port Power - less money filtering down to the SANFL league
3. Global Financial downturn impacting on sponsorship (i.e. income for the league clubs)

[drebin]

Something points to the Roosters.....

Sorry Wedgie, my friend....

The second post in recent weeks that you have "pointed" at North re not surviving! Based on what???

I'm not sure why intellectual midgets like yourself bother to post absolute rubbish.

[Ronnie]

Without being an expert on each clubs' finances i would have thought every club has a good shot at survival.
Nothing is guaranteed whether you are Centrals or a West Adelaide but there is no immiment merger on the cards.
rumours always fly around football clubs, and club finances are a concern yes, but if clubs adjust their business models accordingly talk of an 8 team comp is trite.

[HeartBeatsTrue]

In a few years time will the global economy go back to normal? And all this merger/folding speculation will be forgotten?

[Wedgie]

I find the whole rationalisation subject irrational.

[am Bays]

In a few years time will the global economy go back to normal? And all this merger/folding speculation will be forgotten?

My point in raising the issue of the GFC is that some clubs given their financial performace last year need to at least hold their income bases for this year whilst curbing expenditure. With reductions in descretionary spending and a tougher sponsorship market for 2009-10, clubs currently in a poor trading position could go backward this year.

Hardly a recipie for enhancing their chances of financial survival.

Yes by 2015 the GFC will be a relatively distant memory so to might a couple of our clubs.

[JK]

Yes by 2015 the GFC will be a relatively distant memory

A few Rooster fans might be having an ale or 2 over that one

[am Bays]

Yes by 2015 the GFC will be a relatively distant memory

A few Rooster fans might be having an ale or 2 over that one

I don't how the demise of the Glenorchy or Geelong Football clubs would make them so happy....

[JK]

Yes by 2015 the GFC will be a relatively distant memory

A few Rooster fans might be having an ale or 2 over that one

I don't how the demise of the Glenorchy or Geelong Football clubs would make them so happy....

LOL ... Very good mate *dips hat*

[Barto]

Kick Port out, they wanted to be in the AFL, the rest of us want to keep our history. Done.

[oldfella]

I find the whole rationalisation subject irrational.

Spot On Mate

[Dog_ger]

Something points to the Roosters.....

Sorry Wedgie, my friend....

The second post in recent weeks that you have "pointed" at North re not surviving! Based on what???

I'm not sure why intellectual midgets like yourself bother to post absolute rubbish.

I will remind you in 12 months....

[SimonH]

If the odds in the original post were accurate, at least 6 clubs would be folding and the comp itself would be near enough to extinct. 3 clubs virtual certainties to close, 3 others more likely to close than stay open, and even the strongest club only about a 60% chance of staying alive. Might need to take remedial bookie lessons...

[MagareyLegend]

If the odds in the original post were accurate, at least 6 clubs would be folding and the comp itself would be near enough to extinct. 3 clubs virtual certainties to close, 3 others more likely to close than stay open, and even the strongest club only about a 60% chance of staying alive. Might need to take remedial bookie lessons...

But do you not agree that is the case? So what price would you have Centrals at then? If Centrals merged with North that doeas not mean Centrals have survived. There is no such thing as an agressive merger as there is with agressive takeovers in the corporate world. In the West Torrens/Woodville merger did either club survive? I think not.

The origins of this topic are a radio interview with Leigh Whicker I heard last weekend in which he said that rationalisation to 8 clubs is one option that the league will need to look at closely to maintain viability.

[LBJ8]

You would think if a team was to fold or merge it would be a team thats struggling on and off the field, who are the teams that are in that position atm honest question as i don't know the state of each club??.....not bagging the other clubs but i'd hate to see clubs with good support eg Centrals, Port Adel, Norwood, Sturt, Glenelg even North Adel go....If you merge one of the other clubs might see a few more people at games maybe? could be one good thing out of it, also could have 21 rounds play each other three times, one game at each home ground and one game at Adel Oval, under lights, double headers etc. Could be good..

[SimonH]

If the odds in the original post were accurate, at least 6 clubs would be folding and the comp itself would be near enough to extinct. 3 clubs virtual certainties to close, 3 others more likely to close than stay open, and even the strongest club only about a 60% chance of staying alive. Might need to take remedial bookie lessons...

But do you not agree that is the case?

No, obviously not. Nor would anyone unless they think the league is about to have 3 clubs in it.

So what price would you have Centrals at then?

Conservatively, 20:1 on to survive intact, not having read their annual reports. If what's been quoted around here as their financial position is accurate, it would be more like 100:1 on or higher.

If Centrals merged with North that doeas not mean Centrals have survived. There is no such thing as an agressive merger as there is with agressive takeovers in the corporate world. In the West Torrens/Woodville merger did either club survive? I think not.

All true, and all completely irrelevant.

The origins of this topic are a radio interview with Leigh Whicker I heard last weekend in which he said that rationalisation to 8 clubs is one option that the league will need to look at closely to maintain viability.

Which returns us to the original point. If there is only going to be one team lost to the comp (or two if you count 2 teams merging), then mathematically you cannot have 3 sides all at 50/1 or worse chance of surviving.