This year is shaping to be the most competitive in terms of finals spots since 1999. In that year, 7 teams were still in the finals race coming into the last round and over the past few seasons the top places have been fairly stable come round 22.
However in 1999, into the last round 4th - Glenelg was capable of reaching 2nd - Eagles; this year 2nd is realistically out of reach of the 5 teams below. Not impossible, but it would mean that Central or Port would need to win more than 4 games (due to % gap) than one of the top two clubs to get there.
Although that isn't much of a fuss - 2nd and 3rd of course are double chance spots - all 5 clubs (Central, Port, Glenelg, Norwood and South) are in the race for 3rd.
I won't go into a great detail over the possibilities that can happen - it will bore everyone to death - and Nai has the calculator up on FootySA to fully realise the possibilities.
The matches that will have the greatest bearing on who finishes where will of course be when the 5 teams play each other. This is the list of occurances over the next 7 rounds:
R 17 - Central v South (Eliz.)
Glenelg v Port (Glen.)
R 18 - Norwood v Glenelg (Nor.)
R 19 - Port v Central (Alb.)
South v Norwood (Noarlunga)
R 21 - Central v Glenelg (Eliz.)
R 23 - Glenelg v South (Adel.)
Central - 3
Glenelg - 4
Norwood - 2
Port - 2
South - 3
It is fair to say whoever has a winning % of 100 in those games will make the finals.
But that is still not totally correct - the 5 clubs must also win the games against Sturt and West as well to be totally assured (particularly South and Norwood)
Central - Sturt, West
Glenelg - Sturt
Norwood - West, Sturt
Port - West, Sturt
South - Sturt, West
This does not mean to say that the five clubs cannot beat North and Eagles - at their best they are all capable. Wins against these clubs will also go a long way to determining who makes it or doesn't.
Central - North
Glenelg - North
Norwood - North, Eagles
Port - Eagles, North
South - Eagles, North
All up, it shoud prove fascinating watching how it will unfold over the next 7 weeks.