Disastrous internal Liberal polling ignites speculation about Vincent Tarzia’s leadership
Disastrous opinion polling showing the Liberals being decimated at next March’s state election has ignited speculation about Vincent Tarzia’s leadership.
State Liberal shadow cabinet was briefed on Monday night about research showing the party losing substantial ground to One Nation, both across the metropolitan and country areas.
It is understood the polling showed Liberal primary support in the high 20s – a bit higher than the 21 per cent revealed in a YouGov poll published by The Advertiser in June.
But this would leave the Liberals holding just three of their current 13 seats – all blue-ribbon country electorates – and hoping to win back three independent-held regional electorates, where the polling is said to show them performing strongly.
Senior Liberal sources said expected future leader Ashton Hurn, the party’s health spokeswoman, would not challenge Mr Tarzia, but said momentum was gathering for a push to convince him to step aside in her favour.
It is believed Ms Hurn, who has previously repeatedly ruled out becoming leader until after the election, has signalled to colleagues she would not resist being drafted in the event of an overwhelming push.
But Mr Tarzia is believed to have repeatedly told colleagues he will not quit and is determined to lead the party to the March 21 election.
Any leadership switch would be complicated by the timing, so close to the election, and Mr Tarzia’s replacement having to pay out office staff as they set up a new operation.
Senior Liberal sources said no move was expected this week, when the final three sitting days of state parliament have been scheduled before the election.
The leaking of the polling results to The Advertiser appears to be triggered by some desperate MPs and party figures, alarmed by the polling results and trying to goad Ms Hurn into a leadership bid.
“The problem is there’s no candidate at the moment (to replace Mr Tarzia),” one advocate for leadership change said.
Liberal sources said the polling showed the Liberals would be left with Flinders, held by Sam Telfer, Chaffey (Tim Whetstone) and Schubert (Ms Hurn).
But they said it showed the party performing strongly in independent seats the Liberals had previously held, notably MacKillop (Nick McBride), Narungga (Fraser Ellis) and Mount Gambier (previously Troy Bell).
Liberal leadership murmurings emerged last week, after the party switched state leaders in Victoria and New South Wales.
But there was little appetite for change in SA, so close to an election, until Monday night’s polling briefing by Liberal state director Alexander Hyde.
It is understood Mr Hyde cautioned shadow cabinet MPs against leaking the results, telling them Labor had made numerous blunders in government but its discipline was seen by voters as proxy for competence.
But Liberal infighting and turmoil was seen as proxy for incompetence, Mr Hyde is said to have told MPs.
Asked to respond, a Liberal spokeswoman said: “The state director regularly briefs parliamentarians on the Liberal Party’s ongoing research program.”
Independent MPs were sceptical about claims the Liberals were polling well in their seats, with one saying the party was struggling there because its vote was competing against both independents and One Nation.
“If it was true then it’s an indictment on them. They’re only polling well in places they’re not present,” another independent MP said.
For the sake of good government and relative accountability one can only hope the opposition seats dont go any lower than the ALP cricket team in 1993.
Based on the current opinion polls it is likely but that is not a good result for the state. I for one hope Patto survives in Morphett.
Let that be a lesson to you Port, no one beats the Bays five times in a row in a GF and gets away with it!!!
am Bays wrote:The result next year is a fait accompli
For the sake of good government and relative accountability one can only hope the opposition seats dont go any lower than the ALP cricket team in 1993.
Based on the current opinion polls it is likely but that is not a good result for the state. I for one hope Patto survives in Morphett.
He should go back to being Mayor … the current one is a disaster.
am Bays wrote:The result next year is a fait accompli
For the sake of good government and relative accountability one can only hope the opposition seats dont go any lower than the ALP cricket team in 1993.
Based on the current opinion polls it is likely but that is not a good result for the state. I for one hope Patto survives in Morphett.
On AA this morning they threw up the notion that Spiers might hold more metropolitan seats than the Libs this time next year.
I don't see Speirs winning his old seat off Labor (but wouldn't be entirely surprised if he outpolled the Liberal candidate, depending on who that is).