Albanese Labor Govt Watch

[Jimmy_041]

Losing one seat to ON v losing a multitude of seats to Labor - on balance I'd say that going back to the middle is the sensible approach.

Immediately before the election, the Coalition were in front in the polls.
It was a terrible (that is a very conservative word) campaign and Labor's campaign was very good.
Pretty much the same as the last State election campaign here,
My view, together with plenty of others who know better than me, is the campaign cost them big time.
They also lost seats to ON because some long time Liberal voters wanted something else but wouldn't vote Labor

[RB]

They also lost seats to ON because some long time Liberal voters wanted something else but wouldn't vote Labor

That looks to be the case in the senate, and may mean that the days of the Coalition reliably winning 3 seats in most states in good-to-middling elections are disappearing - sort of like how Labor rarely win 3 seats these days because they're squeezed out by the Greens for that third seat (Labor did win 3 seats in two states this year - in addition to a Greens seat in each state - but it required an especially strong ALP vote which won't always be the case).

However in the House of Representatives, the Coalition still lost a hell of a lot more votes to Labor than to ON (and in any event most of the folks you're referring to would have preferenced the Coalition before Labor in the lower house).

The path back to government for the Coalition is by winning back folks who voted for Labor this year, but have voted for the Coalition regularly or at least occasionally in the past.

[Jimmy_041]

They also lost seats to ON because some long time Liberal voters wanted something else but wouldn't vote Labor

That looks to be the case in the senate, and may mean that the days of the Coalition reliably winning 3 seats in most states in good-to-middling elections are disappearing - sort of like how Labor rarely win 3 seats these days because they're squeezed out by the Greens for that third seat (Labor did win 3 seats in two states this year - in addition to a Greens seat in each state - but it required an especially strong ALP vote which won't always be the case).

However in the House of Representatives, the Coalition still lost a hell of a lot more votes to Labor than to ON (and in any event most of the folks you're referring to would have preferenced the Coalition before Labor in the lower house).

The path back to government for the Coalition is by winning back folks who voted for Labor this year, but have voted for the Coalition regularly or at least occasionally in the past.

Dont disagree at all
I just place more emphasis on a $hite campaign
Same here in SA - Marshall should never have lost

[Jim05]

WA senator Dorinda Cox (GRN) will defect to the ALP.

[dedja]

Libs lose Bradfield by 26 votes

[Jim05]

Worst Labor vote in Tasmanian history.
Libs will actually win more seats than they already had.

[dedja]

It was a completely pointless exercise by Labor … no surprise that they appear to have been punished by the electorate.

[stan]

It was a completely pointless exercise by Labor … no surprise that they appear to have been punished by the electorate.

Absolute disaster for Labor. Great result for the Libs. If they can win 15 to 16 seats, 17 was a possibility early in the night, but looks unlikely now, then they can form a more stable government than they previously had.

Again this will depend on the independents but they are in a good position to work with them now.

[RB]

Clearly a pointless exercise by Labor, but not a disaster - there's a pathway to government if they're interested. That's a big if though.

[Dutchy]

How does the Government get away with bracket creep? Should be an adjustment to personal tax rates every year.

[Dutchy]

Albo making the housing market easier to get into for first home buyers which means market will get even tighter, driving up house prices again making it less affordable. Politics eh....

[wenchbarwer]

Albo making the housing market easier to get into for first home buyers which means market will get even tighter, driving up house prices again making it less affordable. Politics eh....

I honestly can't believe he said this, as well. Gormless is a wonderful word and it suits this prick perfectly.

[mighty_tiger_79]

its a word i never knew exitsed, but i like it

[Booney]

Albo making the housing market easier to get into for first home buyers which means market will get even tighter, driving up house prices again making it less affordable. Politics eh....

I can't see it helping too many people, all it means is the mortgage will be higher as you are borrowing more and banks still have their checks in place for people being able to service a mortgage.

[wenchbarwer]

Albo making the housing market easier to get into for first home buyers which means market will get even tighter, driving up house prices again making it less affordable. Politics eh....

I can't see it helping too many people, all it means is the mortgage will be higher as you are borrowing more and banks still have their checks in place for people being able to service a mortgage.

There was a great article from the Barefoot Investor about this on the weekend. pointing out how high your loan repayments would be at 5% deposit, and how any possible rate increases would affect new borrowers. He puts things in basic terms nicely for numpties like me.

[Booney]

Albo making the housing market easier to get into for first home buyers which means market will get even tighter, driving up house prices again making it less affordable. Politics eh....

I can't see it helping too many people, all it means is the mortgage will be higher as you are borrowing more and banks still have their checks in place for people being able to service a mortgage.

There was a great article from the Barefoot Investor about this on the weekend. pointing out how high your loan repayments would be at 5% deposit, and how any possible rate increases would affect new borrowers. He puts things in basic terms nicely for numpties like me.

On a $750k home where you borrow 95%, $712k, your monthly repayments are all of $4000.

On a $750k home where you borrow $600k your monthly repayments are $3200.

( 4.99% - 30 years )

[Jimmy_041]

Albo making the housing market easier to get into for first home buyers which means market will get even tighter, driving up house prices again making it less affordable. Politics eh....

I can't see it helping too many people, all it means is the mortgage will be higher as you are borrowing more and banks still have their checks in place for people being able to service a mortgage.

There was a great article from the Barefoot Investor about this on the weekend. pointing out how high your loan repayments would be at 5% deposit, and how any possible rate increases would affect new borrowers. He puts things in basic terms nicely for numpties like me.

On a $750k home where you borrow 95%, $712k, your monthly repayments are all of $4000.

On a $750k home where you borrow $600k your monthly repayments are $3200.

( 4.99% - 30 years )

Sorry; are those calculations related to showing that your repayments will be higher under the 5% scheme or what the Barefoot Investor said?

[wenchbarwer]

Both, same thing

I think...

[Booney]

Sorry; are those calculations related to showing that your repayments will be higher under the 5% scheme or what the Barefoot Investor said?

Higher under the 5% scheme as you're borrowing more and, most likely, the banks won't lend you the money.

[Jimmy_041]

Sorry; are those calculations related to showing that your repayments will be higher under the 5% scheme or what the Barefoot Investor said?

Higher under the 5% scheme as you're borrowing more and, most likely, the banks won't lend you the money.

Yep - I read the BI saying the 5% equity is dangerous as you don't have a big enough buffer if you start to struggle financially
I haven't read much about the scheme. Does the Aust Govt's guarantee step in if you start defaulting or do you just avoid LMI?

If the only plan is that the Govt guarantee the 15% gap, I assume they indemnify the banks should the borrower default (as LMI does)

Although I feel for 1st home owners, this will increase prices even more (to be frank; fuel the ponzi scheme even more) and put some people at risk.
As you say Booney, the banks are still going to risk assess each application. I discussed risk assessment with a BOQ Exec about 3 years ago and I think ( too long ago to recall) their general buffer is around 2-2.5% on the current interest rate. They are going to apply that to the amount of the loan (which is now 15% higher). When interest rates went up post Covid, they never reached that BOQ reference rate but there was (stilll is) screaming about mortgage stress

The Albanese Govt look like they are doing something but I can see why BI thinks its a crock. Banks will assess the risk (probably harsher) and if the punter defaults, they just blame the banks whilst we, the taxpayer, picks up the difference. The politicians just get re-elected AND their multiple investment properties continue to rise and make them even wealthier.

Quotes attributable to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
“We want to help young people and first home buyers achieve the dream of home ownership sooner.
“Bringing the start date of our 5 per cent deposit scheme forward will do just that.
“Getting more Australians into their own home quicker, while saving them money along the way.
“Labor was re-elected with a clear mandate to bring down the deposit hurdle for first home buyers, and we’re delivering.”

This is not dissimilar to the commercial loan scheme Weatherill / Koutsantonis brought in with much fanfare in 2015.
The scheme had one loan. Talking with a prominant SA banker, they wouldn't fund the company even with the guarantee. There's a reason they needed the guarantee and that bank declined to fund them. But Bendigo Adelaide did.
It ended well - not: https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/archi ... nistration
Although they did well to last 6 years, the SA Govt was still on the hook for the guarantee. I'll see if I can find out how much we paid out.