Albanese Labor Govt Watch

[MW]

Just heard labor has control of the senate with the greens as well.
We are f..ked

Not sure Labor’s vote is high enough to be in Senate majority. Unless you mean Labor and Greens together.

Angus Taylor an early favourite for Liberal Leader.

If that happens Labor will celebrate long and hard.

Yeah labor and greens together is worse

[RB]

One Nation received a swing to them of 1.2%, but didn’t go close to winning any House seats. They won’t add to their existing Senate seat either.

I think that ON are a good chance at picking up a couple of Senate seats (off the Coaltion).

[dedja]

One Nation received a swing to them of 1.2%, but didn’t go close to winning any House seats. They won’t add to their existing Senate seat either.

I think that ON are a good chance at picking up a couple of Senate seats (off the Coaltion).

Haven’t got more than 0.5 of a quota in any state. Doesn’t mean that they can’t get up, but unlikely. Distributions in the Senate are a long and complicated saga, so probably won’t know for a while.

[dedja]

Just heard labor has control of the senate with the greens as well.
We are f..ked

Senate: Labor 28, Greens 11

39 required for a majority in the 76 seat senate.

In other news, Trumpet of Patriots has not won any House or Senate seats.

Well how does Sue Ellen become Prime Minister?

Currently on 3.41% of the vote in the NSW seat of Hunter.

[Booney]

I'll go so far as to say this election will be diabolical for the Libs, its 77 to 53 ( Lib 39 Nat 14 ) seats in the House of Representatives at the moment.

I'll go Labor ending up with 85 or more.

86-90 is paying $21 on Sportsbet...

Come on.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Ch7 saying Labor 89 seats

[Booney]

Ch7 saying Labor 89 seats

Come on.

[DOC]

Ch7 saying Labor 89 seats

Come on.

So you were actually travelling/interstate on election day. At least someone was not telling porkies.

[dedja]

Adam Bandt in serious trouble in Melbourne.

63.8% voted counted, 2PP is 52% Labor, 48% Greens … Bandt is trailing by 2,889 votes with an 8.6% swing to Labor.

Postal preferences so far have been 75% to Labor.

[Jim05]

Adam Bandt in serious trouble in Melbourne.

63.8% voted counted, 2PP is 52% Labor, 48% Greens … Bandt is trailing by 2,889 votes with an 8.6% swing to Labor.

Postal preferences so far have been 75% to Labor.

Excellent

[DOC]

Adam Bandt in serious trouble in Melbourne.

63.8% voted counted, 2PP is 52% Labor, 48% Greens … Bandt is trailing by 2,889 votes with an 8.6% swing to Labor.

Postal preferences so far have been 75% to Labor.

This is not reflected on the AEC site.

According to them less than 6% of votes have been counted in TCP mode, nearly all of which are postals.

[Booney]

Alex Antic thinks we should "Make the Liberal Party Great Again" and that will "Make Australia Great Again".

Yes, move more to the right. WAFW.

[dedja]

Adam Bandt in serious trouble in Melbourne.

63.8% voted counted, 2PP is 52% Labor, 48% Greens … Bandt is trailing by 2,889 votes with an 8.6% swing to Labor.

Postal preferences so far have been 75% to Labor.

This is not reflected on the AEC site.

According to them less than 6% of votes have been counted in TCP mode, nearly all of which are postals.

It’s from the ABC site. The discrepancy is that the AEC decides pre-emptively on election night which 2 candidates in each House seat will have a preference count, regardless of which 2 candidates were counted as the first 2 on first preferences on the night.

In this case, I assume the AEC advised to count preferences for the Greens and Liberal, but Labor came in second.

This seems odd but it’s all in the way the AEC tries to get voting counts as quickly as possible to the media on election night.

So in reality, there was no preference counting undertaken in Melbourne on election night, so it has to been re-done in the following days, hence why this percentage counted is less than 6%.

We’ll know in the next few days how it pans out. From the AEC numbers, the Greens are 7,000 odd votes ahead on first preferences, but are trailing Labor 36% to 64% on 2PP (TCP) which indicates that preferences are heavily weighted towards Labor.

Regardless, Bandt is in some trouble to retain his seat.

[am Bays]

Alex Antic thinks we should "Make the Liberal Party Great Again" and that will "Make Australia Great Again".

Yes, move more to the right. WAFW.

I know he makes Corey Bernardi look sane.

They talk about being "not labor lite" and the party of freedom. That shite doesnt resinate with the majority of people born after 1980 who make up 333% of teh voting populice.

Without want to imitate James mcGrath and his "wait to the prepoll come in" on Saturday night, "You give up the centre in Australian politics at your peril"

There is a reason why the Australian Conservatives/Family first/ONP and Clive win F*** all or one seat per election at best.

[Booney]

We have a bigger issue at play both locally and federally. Government works best when the opposition is strong and keeps them accountable, when the opposition is a viable alternative the government has to work for their re-election. What now of both the state and federal opposition and what does it mean for politics nationally?

[bertiebeatle1]

Alex Antic thinks we should "Make the Liberal Party Great Again" and that will "Make Australia Great Again".

Yes, move more to the right. WAFW.

He's an idiot - it's not hard to see Trump's election had an affect on people voting against Dutton. The Libs are a mess but Antic just continuing to show they don't learn.

Bandt getting tossed would make my weekend/week.

[dedja]

It’s means that Labor can basically do what they want here in SA and Federally.

This usually means that they will faark it up and be swept from power at some stage down the track, certainly true Federally. We have this anomaly in SA where Labor has a perpetual free pass.

The other trend is that whatever flavour we have federally, the States tend to elect the opposite during their term.

Probably the bigger issue is that the major parties only polled 67% on first preferences, so one third of the electorate didn’t vote for them, but 96%+ of House seats went to those parties.

No electoral system is perfect, but compulsory and preferential voting is heavily biased towards a two party system … surprise, surprise.

On the point regarding aligning to MAGA, I think that’s overblown. It’s clear that the Coalition ran a disastrous campaign, and Dutton and his close advisors were clueless, thinking that policy on the run with many switchbacks was somehow going to be a successful strategy. Just look how quickly reports of this shambolic management has been reported from Coalition sources since the result was obvious Saturday night.

The writing should have been on the wall for Dutton for employing Jamie Briggs as a senior advisor. Quote: “Briggs is an unflushable turd,’’ a former Liberal staffer complained.” “His previous marginal seat campaigning involved losing his own seat.”

Also noting that the re-incarnation of the Australian Democrats received 621 votes to date. Don Chipp would be turning in his grave.

[RB]

No electoral system is perfect, but compulsory and preferential voting is heavily biased towards a two party system

Preferential voting is the opposite of heavily-biased towards a two-party system. It makes it much likelier that minor parties/independents draw a significant portion of the vote, because their supporters know their vote will flow elsewhere if they're excluded and not be wasted.

FPTP voting often leads to true two-party systems like America. It imposes strategic dilemmas on folks who prefer minor parties. If we didn't have preferential voting in Australia, for instance, many supporters of minor left and minor right parties would instead opt to vote for Labor and the Coalition respectively.

It's hard for me to think of a voting system that assists non-major parties more than preferential voting, unless you consider proportional voting like we use for the senate.

[dedja]

No electoral system is perfect, but compulsory and preferential voting is heavily biased towards a two party system

Preferential voting is the opposite of heavily-biased towards a two-party system. It makes it much likelier that minor parties/independents draw a significant portion of the vote, because their supporters know their vote will flow elsewhere if they're excluded and not be wasted.

FPTP voting often leads to true two-party systems like America. It imposes strategic dilemmas on folks who prefer minor parties. If we didn't have preferential voting in Australia, for instance, many supporters of minor left and minor right parties would instead opt to vote for Labor and the Coalition respectively.

It's hard for me to think of a voting system that assists non-major parties more than preferential voting, unless you consider proportional voting like we use for the senate.

I was very deliberate in stating … compulsory and preferential voting … we have allowed a massive donkey vote by the virtue of how to vote cards.

Make voting voluntary and I’d agree 100% with you.

[Jimmy_041]

It’s means that Labor can basically do what they want here in SA and Federally.

This usually means that they will faark it up and be swept from power at some stage down the track, certainly true Federally. We have this anomaly in SA where Labor has a perpetual free pass.

The other trend is that whatever flavour we have federally, the States tend to elect the opposite during their term.

Probably the bigger issue is that the major parties only polled 67% on first preferences, so one third of the electorate didn’t vote for them, but 96%+ of House seats went to those parties.

No electoral system is perfect, but compulsory and preferential voting is heavily biased towards a two party system … surprise, surprise.

On the point regarding aligning to MAGA, I think that’s overblown. It’s clear that the Coalition ran a disastrous campaign, and Dutton and his close advisors were clueless, thinking that policy on the run with many switchbacks was somehow going to be a successful strategy. Just look how quickly reports of this shambolic management has been reported from Coalition sources since the result was obvious Saturday night.

The writing should have been on the wall for Dutton for employing Jamie Briggs as a senior advisor. Quote: “Briggs is an unflushable turd,’’ a former Liberal staffer complained.” “His previous marginal seat campaigning involved losing his own seat.”

Also noting that the re-incarnation of the Australian Democrats received 621 votes to date. Don Chipp would be turning in his grave.

Agree with you
Jamie is a fun bloke to have a beer
He's held some pretty good jobs outside of politics so he must have something

I met James Stevens at the Hood on Anzac Day
He was with a mutual friend who introduced me. I thought he was pretty wet
Andrew McLachlan and he were in a pretty heavy discussion about the campaign.
My immediate thought was that they were in real trouble