by Oaksnaf » Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 am
So an update after 38 days of posting wagering on my markets at mostly the 2 minutes before jump time.
Most disappointing was that I found a number of errors in my spreadsheets along the way that placed bets, that weren't bets. Despite thinking the spreadsheets were good to go. Nothing beats the real thing. Anyways, it looks like everything is now in the clear.
Overall: -$3,414
Win Bets: -$2,117
Place Bets: -$556
Lay Win: -$420
Lay Place: +479
Exotics: -$800
For Non Exotics:
Bets Placed: 864
Error Bets: 201 (yes huge !!!)
Winners: 233
Ave Win Size $48
Given a lot happens in the last 2 minutes of wagering. From the time posting the wagers, to just before the market closed.
The posted wagers, that weren't actually wagers + potential bets that came up in the last seconds, the P/L for win/place bets was +$1,699. And Exotics +$296. Total +$1,995. (So for me, it is much better overall, betting in the last seconds compared to the 2 minute mark)
Error bets were -$1,335. (way too many errors !!)
So between them (adding late bets + removing errors), that is +$3,330. Which when compared with actual loss = -$84. All odds based on fixed odds for Win/Place. All lay bets, are actual betfair odds.
If you were to get 10% better odds for every bet placed compared to the odds achieved at time of posting. The gains are +$1,122.
In Summary:
It is quite difficult to post wagers before the jump of the race that 100% reflects what I do. This month long exercise certainly has confirmed this.
There isn't really any point to me posting my markets anymore, or the suggested bets block. Because it's not 100% accurate to what I would do, and I only want to post in that way. I don't want to pretend about anything. And the markets on their own are not easy to decipher, thus they are not meaningful.
What I will do. Going forward. Is:
1) Post selections for my A grade set-ups that are simple to follow with a simple comment and with plenty of time before race start.
2) Post a weekly summary of my actual real bets with real comments. I like sharing to a small online community whether I am profitable or not.
Thanks,