by OnSong » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:21 pm
More text to dig through. Heading to Vigneron's Day on Sunday. Went through the acceptances before markets were up. See how close I am to the market. Haha. Could be miles off. Again, purely for interest.
Strathalbyn Sunday!
No prices up yet, so flying blind to some degree with only form to follow.
R1) My top selection would be 9 Stalagmite, which has improved its fitness and showed it can stay the trip last start. Gatt retains the ride so he should know what its capable of and give it every possible. Hoping for each way odds of about $6. Next selections would be 5 Go Straightandhard with Jamie Kah in the saddle. Boxed on gamely and held ground last start, back in grade. 3 Berkshire Babe showed good staying potential, doing its best work late in a BM60 at Penola over 1700m having been wide for the trip. 2 Rex Goliath closed late to score at big odds over 1500m last start. Different jockey in the saddle, extra 500m the test, but was held up for a long portion of that race so I think it had more in the tank.
9, 5, 3, 2 my top four, 6, 7 & 8 outsiders and really can't see 1 or 4 figuring in the finish on recent form.
R2) Interesting maiden affair. Lots of speed from the inside barriers with 9 Pam's Journey and 8 Leggero drawing 1 & 2. This is vital from the 1100m start as you basically lob straight onto the lengthy bend before you're into the home straight. Pam's Journey will benefit from a weight claim with Gary Lo on board. Think it's got a bit more ability than Leggero, which led last start over 1200m and was swamped in the final 200m at Morphettville in a tougher race. Did the same this track and trip before that run. Will be right in the finish again but extra weight a concern. These two will fight out most of the race up front, while 4 Panzer Princess has shown great consistency without making a breakthrough. Maybe fading after a distant third last start. Same goes for 1 All Things Nice, a long way off in second last start but showed good early speed. 5 Picayune was disappointing Wednesday and on the short turn around, can't see it figuring for first, while 6 Issara wasn't terrible when third in a trial up against short fave A Thousand Degrees, beaten on Wednesday but would have won at 1000m+.
9 & 8, then 1, 4, 6, then 5, while hard to comment on 2 and 3, one a first starter with no public trial form, the other hasn't been sighted for more than a year. Check the early market.
R3) Going to the inside barriers again from the 1200m start, with 5 Tailgunner coming from Barrier 2. Finished close up to A Thousand Degrees in the recent trial, which ran well enough at Murray Bridge on Wednesday to think it's destined for better things. Forgive the recent run of 11 Sizzling Affair, it has plenty of ability and Jamie Kah on board looks promising. 12 Take It Up a Gia comes from Barrier 1 and could run a race at each way odds if it doesn't blow the start. 8 Airmail has the speed from 10 to cross and lead early and is fit enough to hold on to a place, along with 4 Kyd Rock. Look for 10 Purely On Spec to close late, while 1 Gourmelin produced a close up fourth from a wide barrier in its first start on this track and trip, capable of doing that again after a four-week freshen up. 2 Heroes Quest is bothering me a bit. Hard to have but Jeff Maund is capable of causing an upset.
5, 11 over 4, 8, 10 and 12, then 1 or 2 if you're feeling lucky.
R4) On recent form, you should get genuine, honest efforts out of 11 Down Under Prince and 12 Jarrvis. Look for decent odds around those two, closer to the $10 mark is reasonable value. 8 Finniss Moment can figure for the minors along with 1 Grand Armada, which does enough work early but can't close the deal of late. The improvement of 6 Claiborne King is credible and Maund will give it a chance. Also had 2 Big Boy Blev as a chance on Wednesday before he was scratched, so logic says this should be easier and he must be included.
2, 11, 12, then 1, 8 and 6.
R5) 7 No Joy should be a class above here after good trial form. Also leaning towards 1 Bubblewrap and 2 Fulton Street as leaders in the market. 4 Fort Necessity could grab a place, while 5 The Trooper and 6 Artistic Focus could back up their maiden wins in this tougher event. I've always made time for 10 Artistic Escape and watch 9 Vein Choice closely. Interstate raider which can play up but if it behaves, it has the ability here.
7 over 1 and 2, then 5, 6 and 10, maybe 4.
R6) Hard to look anywhere other than 3 Tsaritsyn. Been on a spell for more than a year but you've got to think Jolly has it right ahead of resuming following a good trial on November 9. Others to figure include 2 Oamaru Owl, which beat 7 Snowbrook last start over 1200m, although if Snowbrook is within striking distance, the extra 150m will be in its favour. I also don't mind 9 See Me Rollin as a chance, been very consistent this campaign, and respect 1 Little Akie's record here, although recent form suggests it's not going so well.
3 and 9, then 2 and 7, 1 as a rough chance.
R7) Think 1 Tambang Bessie had more to give after breaking its maiden over the 1100m last start. Another 250m might be the big query. 3 Exacting should be in the finish if it doesn't do too much wrong. 4 Getouttheway has shown ability and you can forgive its last start. 5 Big Call closed well to the line last start over 1200m and you'd think 1350m suits. 8 Hilumiere finished well at Morphettville last start, working home for third after circling the field. 10 Regal Eagle wasn't far away from Tambang Bessie and with racing room, could challenge, while two runners give me rough tingles, 12 Swift Jet and 7 Sylvan Crest, having its first run for a new stable.
5 and 3 over 1, 4, 8 and 10. 7 & 12 rough chances
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!