Adelaide Crows 2017

[Fricky]

Pretty simple this Friday, Adelaide need to win to be considered close to a Premiership side. I don't have any confidence we will win.

[bennymacca]

Pretty simple this Friday, Adelaide need to win to be considered close to a Premiership side. I don't have any confidence we will win.

this

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Pretty simple this Friday, Adelaide need to win to be considered close to a Premiership side. I don't have any confidence we will win.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand Geelong into Port goes on @ $4.23

[Fricky]

Pretty simple this Friday, Adelaide need to win to be considered close to a Premiership side. I don't have any confidence we will win.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand Geelong into Port goes on @ $4.23

I've gone $10 on Geelong 1-24 @ $4.10 and $10 on Geelong 25+ @ $6.50. In the end I'll be happy, to a degree, with either team winning

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Ah shit, my apologies saw the cat avatar & took you for a cats doomsday forecaster.

[Trader]

I've gone $10 on Geelong 1-24 @ $4.10 and $10 on Geelong 25+ @ $6.50.

As a casual punter, you probably don't care, but just for your info, betting against yourself in the same market is rarely a good idea.

At the moment, you stand to win/lose as follows:

Crows -$20
Draw -$20
Cats 1-24 +$21
Cats 25+ +$45

Had you instead taken $15 at 2.7 for geelong in the head to head market, and then $4 on geelong 25+ at $6.50, you'd be better off on all outcomes:

Crows -$19
Draw +$1.25
Cats 1-24 +$21.50
Cats 25+ +$47.50

Sure, a dollar or two isn't going to make or break anyone, but on a $20 bet, it's 5-10%.

If you have $500 worth of bets over a season, its a carton of beer at the end of the year.

The bookies make enough money as it is, no point giving them more!

[Jack]

By taking $4-10 and $6-50 'evenly' you end up with odds of about $2-53
Better off taking the $2-70 just to win the match

Also if the match ends in a draw you get absolutely screwed, the 1-24 and 25+ are both losing bets
If you take $2-70 for Geelong to win , you will still get half the return, and still make a profit
For example a drawn game = $20 at 2-70 = $27.00 collect, a profit of $7-00 overall

In essence to be a good trader you need to be suri of yourself

[Trader]

By taking $4-10 and $6-50 'evenly' you end up with odds of about $2-53
Better off taking the $2-70 just to win the match

$2.51, but who's counting!

For those playing at home = 1/(1/4.1+1/6.5)

[Bum Crack]

Get on Motlop for 4 goals plus. He loves Adelaide Oval and he's due for a big one. Cam Guthrie tore a few new arseholes last time at AO as well so he might be a sneaky chance of highest possession getter. Anyone know what the odds are for those?

[Spargo]

Get on Motlop for 4 goals plus. He loves Adelaide Oval and he's due for a big one. Cam Guthrie tore a few new arseholes last time at AO as well so he might be a sneaky chance of highest possession getter. Anyone know what the odds are for those?

Motlop 4 goals or more @ $26
Guthrie 30 possessions or more @ $26

[Booney]

Lever, Sloane and Jenkins in doubt.

[MW]

Lever, Sloane and Jenkins in doubt.

Sloane confirmed will play unless he "goes backwards" between now and Friday night.
Lever confirmed out. Keath to debut.
Jenkins reckons he's lost a few kgs with food poisoning...if its just fluids he'll put that back on very quickly and should be right.

[Rik E Boy]

I hope Jenkins and Sloane both play. No way will they be right tomorrow night.

regards,

REB

[stan]

I hope Jenkins and Sloane both play. No way will they be right tomorrow night.

regards,

REB

Need to be careful with stabding Jenkins, might be a few loose ones out the back...

[Booney]

I hope Dangerfield plays. No way will he be right tomorrow night.

regards,

REB

[Bum Crack]

Get on Motlop for 4 goals plus. He loves Adelaide Oval and he's due for a big one. Cam Guthrie tore a few new arseholes last time at AO as well so he might be a sneaky chance of highest possession getter. Anyone know what the odds are for those?

Motlop 4 goals or more @ $26
Guthrie 30 possessions or more @ $26

Really?

[mighty_tiger_79]

Id be happy if Motlop had 4 effective kicks

[Spargo]

Get on Motlop for 4 goals plus. He loves Adelaide Oval and he's due for a big one. Cam Guthrie tore a few new arseholes last time at AO as well so he might be a sneaky chance of highest possession getter. Anyone know what the odds are for those?

Motlop 4 goals or more @ $26
Guthrie 30 possessions or more @ $26

Really?

On Sportsbet

[Pistol Pete]

I hope Dangerfield plays. No way will he be right tomorrow night.

regards,

REB

Well regardless of if he is playing or not he is already in town. Had a meeting for his pub that he owns. Probably bit of a nice lunch and a tax right off as well.

I wonder if he will play but play a bit more forward. His bang, crash and burst might be effected by his leg. Even up forward he would be a handful, but perhaps they might try and nurse him through it a bit.

Sloane would be doubtful and should be at least 1 week out with that sort of a head knock.
Also sounds like Jenkins might be struggling as well.

It will be interesting to see how Alex Keath goes as well. A fair sportsman to say the least.

[bennymacca]

Keath has huge shoes to fill, Lever has been incredible in the last month. Good luck to him.