by Magellan » Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:32 am
I have theory about how the Trump presidency is going to unfold. I reckon there's a good chance he's not going to honour the inflammatory language and protectionist/nationalist policies that marked the election campaign. In fact, I'd say he's likely to turn out to be quite an ineffective and lame president that falls short what he said he'd do.
The realities of office are that he has to deal with two houses of congress, and the agenda he spruiked won't be as easy to implement with the mere stroke of a pen at the Oval Office. You might say that Trump can't afford to not implement his controversial policies, because it would piss off the masses of rust-belt disaffected middle Americans who adopted Trump as their idol and savior from a modern world they see as having left them behind. They've invested themselves, their personal hopes and dreams for a better future into his idea of making America great again. They made him, and they'll be baying for his blood if he doesn't honour his suite of promises to build the Mexican wall, kick out all the Muslims, nuke Syria, bring back jobs and impose tariffs etc. He would become another member of the political establishment, someone who promises everything but fell short, just like all the other members of the political elite.
I say Trump, unlike all other presidential candidates (and political candidates), doesn't care about what he's going to do as president. He only cares about being the president. Like all massively successful male white businessmen, it's all about the contest. Trump, Murdoch, Packer, or whoever else don't take over companies and build extravagant buildings because their family will starve if they don't. They don't need the money. For them, business is a sport. It's about winning, the thrill of the chase and getting the trophy. Once you've won the match, you can point to the trophy. You have bragging rights. I won, you lost. The presidency is another trophy for Trump to put in his cabinet and point to in case you don't think he's a really smart and super awesome guy. He doesn't want to exercise the power, because he doesn't know what to do with it, as evidenced by a campaign that focused on why you should vote for him (or no Hillary) as opposed to outlining a clear agenda for what he was going to do when he got there.
The same way that people invest money in Trump's businesses and schemes is no different to the emotional and philosophical investment that people have made in his message. Trump's no stranger in the business world to taking people's investments and burning them for his own benefit, and walking away from the mess whilst telling everyone how great he still is. Trump's legacy to date has not been about it's substance, its all about style (for want of a better word) and vanity. There's no reason to suggest this is going to change.
I can hear Trump in four year's time, having been defeated in a landslide election, answering to his angry rust-belt supporters. They'll say, "Trump, you were a shit president and a liar because you reneged on all your policies that were going to start a revolution. You're just like all the other politicians. We believed in you, and you took us for a ride, **** you." And Trump will reply with his trademark smug grin and shrugged shoulders, "Hey, guess what? I got to be the president, and you didn't. Thanks for getting me there, it was a real blast to be the most powerful man in the world."
Of course, if this pans out like this it won't address the core issues at the heart of democratic politics in the US and the exclusion of large numbers of the disaffected. In fact it'll probably exacerbate it, but that's the last thing on Trump's mind, safe in his ivory tower in Manhattan and satisfied with his most prized trophy.
"Religion is like a blind man looking in a black room for a black cat that isn't there...and finding it." - Oscar Wilde