Soooooo, how's this weather?

[heater31]

Going to enjoy watching my lads footy training tonight

I've just realised its bin night tonight......FFS

[Footy Chick]

ha, better say goodbye, you may not ever see it again..LOL

[heater31]

ha, better say goodbye, you may not ever see it again..LOL

Got my first ever one of these last week.....might find it in the creek down the road this week!

[gossipgirl]

The end is nigh.... Just had over 15mm, hail, thunder and lightning in north east suburbs !!!

[Footy Chick]

The end is nigh.... Just had over 15mm, hail, thunder and lightning in north east suburbs !!!

That's what I thought when I got home, the colour of the sky was armageddon like - and then I swore my house got hit by lightning, there wasn't even 1 hippopotamus between the thunder and the lightning

I didn't get any hail though

[Wedgie]

It gets cold and wet in the winter and hot and dry in the summer.
End of thread.
You're welcome.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Spring? Autumn?

[MW]

what's the best website to get an accurate 14-day forecast?

[Booney]

what's the best website to get an accurate 14-day forecast?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/au/adelai ... 5257?day=6

[MW]

Cheers mate

[bennymacca]

You really reckon any site is accurate to a forecast greater than what the BOM do?

[Booney]

You really reckon any site is accurate to a forecast greater than what the BOM do?

Yes, and no. The BOM don't go beyond 7 days, usually, Accuweather and Willyweather etc map out forecasts from patterns associated with current BOM information.

[bennymacca]

My point is, if those forecasts were accurate, then the BOM would publish them. I would guess they have orders of magnitude more staff than any of the other forecasting sites

[Booney]

My point is, if those forecasts were accurate, then the BOM would publish them. I would guess they have orders of magnitude more staff than any of the other forecasting sites

Agreed, I can predict any shit I like, but its less likely if I'm speaking on behalf of a government department.

[MW]

Yeah BOM don't do past 7 days, as soon as the day in question falls within that region, I will look.
Same time last year, BOM said it would be 22° 7 days out...by the end of the 7 days it was 30° so what do they know early on also!

[bennymacca]

For those that don't mind a bit of maths.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... pob102.pdf

It seems like they have a few different models that they run for different timescales. The longest one seems to be 9 days. So for rainfall at least anything longer than that is likely to be complete guesswork.

Even at those longer timescales quality of their predictions goes down a lot

[bennymacca]

Yeah BOM don't do past 7 days, as soon as the day in question falls within that region, I will look.
Same time last year, BOM said it would be 22° 7 days out...by the end of the 7 days it was 30° so what do they know early on also!

It's all modelling - they have a set of weather models that they give some initial conditions to and then let the models run. Because weather is a chaotic system it is incredibly hard to model. So the longer you let the model run the less accurate it will be.

2 days out their temp forecast is probably +/- 2 degrees or something, and a lot bigger variation for 7days out

[bennymacca]

http://www.weather-climate.com/BAMOS2008.pdf

Found a paper that analysed the forecast accuracy for melbourne

The average error for daily maxima is 1.4 degrees or so for a 1 day forecast and increases to 3 or so for a 7 day forecast

For minima it's 1.2 increasing to 2.2

[Jase]

Well I hope that it's nice and cool 16/17 and completely overcast next Friday for the SACSA soccer carnival..

I coached a team last year in the same time frame and got burned to a crisp...

Damn white boy complexion...

[Corona Man]

Just saw a bloke in Mt Barker, building an Ark -