Crows 2016

[bennymacca]

Will start writing my preview and post it soon, but given it is now the second month of 2016 we should have a new thread.

How's that Menzel going? Heard good things

[carey]

12th

[Booney]

Very, very hard draw early, loss of one of if not the competitions best player, another new coaching team, recruited bottom end, depth players, still heavily reliant on a few key players.

I can't see Adelaide making the 8 this year. 8-10 wins would be my expectation, could be lower if the first 7 weeks proves to be as hard as it looks for them.

[bennymacca]

Very, very hard draw early, loss of one of if not the competitions best player, another new coaching team, recruited bottom end, depth players, still heavily reliant on a few key players.

I can't see Adelaide making the 8 this year. 8-10 wins would be my expectation, could be lower if the first 7 weeks proves to be as hard as it looks for them.

This is basically my thoughts but I'll try and write something soon

[Spargo]

12th

I heard he finished 43rd in the 2km time trial.

[carey]

12th

I heard he finished 43rd in the 2km time trial.

Only cause he went out to hard.

Viagra will do that.

[stan]

12th

I heard he finished 43rd in the 2km time trial.

Only cause he went out to hard.

Viagra will do that.

Nah viagra gives you good stamina as well.

[Mr Beefy]

12th

I heard he finished 43rd in the 2km time trial.

Only cause he went out to hard.

Viagra will do that.

He might be tripping over

12th

I heard he finished 43rd in the 2km time trial.

Only cause he went out to hard.

Viagra will do that.

Nah viagra gives you good stamina as well.

[Sorry Dude]

12th

I heard he finished 43rd in the 2km time trial.

and walked the last 200-300 metres too

[bennymacca]

Before I start with a preview of this year, it is probably worth giving a small recap of last year. For obvious reasons, it was an incredibly trying year - no club has had to go through the loss of their head coach, midway through the season. For the crows to continue on after that and not fall in a heap was a great credit to them.

What went right in 2015

One of the other pleasing things about last year was the game style we adopted. As well as being contested ball beasts (ranked third) we also played an exciting and attacking brand of footy. The crows were the third best attacking team, and matches involving the crows were the highest scoring in the league.

The crows also used just 32 players last year, the lowest of any team. This suggests we had a great run of injury - and key players, Talia, Jacobs, and Walker, all stayed on the park.

We also win a cracking final with the bulldogs, which was one of the games of the season. If you had told me that we would finish 7th and win a final at the start of the year, I would have been relatively happy with that - in fact thats what I predicted for the crows at the start of last year.

Rory Laird - After the season ending injury to Matty Jaensch, Laird came from absolutely nowhere to push for an all-australian berth, with the 5th highest rise in Champion Data points of anyone, and ranking elite for his ball winning ability and intercept possessions. He also allowed the crows to experiment with playing Brodie Smith further up the ground, (though with mixed results.)

Jake Lever - Some were surprised that Lever was taken ahead of Sam Durdin or Hugh Goddard, but he sure showed why that was the case. Already has the composure of a 100 game player, and with another pre-season to bulk up, he should play a full season.

What went wrong in 2015

Besides the tragic passing of Phil Walsh, there are really only two words that describe what went wrong in 2015. Patrick Dangerfield. The failure to keep him has set the club back immensely. the crows midfield without him suddenly looks simultaneously old and slow, and young and inexperienced. He, along with Sloane, were the midfielders it the right age bracket to see through the transition from Thompson and Douglas to the Crouch Boys. Now this purely rests on sloane, who has a monumental task.

[Booney]

Benny, I think you've touched on a very important and over looked stat, the fact you used only 32 players. That's incredible and important.

What Adelaide have done, with the addition of Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel and to a lesser extent Cheney last year and Gore, is strengthen that gap between your best 22 and the 32nd best on your list.

Also, the three you note above bookends Walker and Talia are critical to keeping Adelaide competitive. Especially Walker. If he goes down Jenkins becomes the go to deep and Lynch is the "big man" playing outside 50. That won't work.

The most critical is Jacobs, how many games has he missed in the last 3 years? ( Just looked, 24 in '12, 22 in '13, 22 in '14 and 23 in '15 - missed that game at Geelong ) It seems he's missed one game in 4 years! Seriously lost if he goes down.

[bennymacca]

Here is my first crack at our best 22. I also want to break down each area to have a look at that, ill do that soon

List Changes
In: Gore, Seedsman, Hampton, Menzel, Milera, Doedee, Keath (R), Greenwood (R), Hunter (R), Beech (R)
Out: Dangerfield, Kerridge, Wright, Podsiadly, Reilly, Siggins, Martin, Osborne, Wilson

F Betts Jenkins Cameron
HF Lynch Walker Knight
C Seedsman , M Crouch, Douglas
HB Smith Lever Laird
B Cheney Talia Brown
R Jacobs B Crouch Sloane
I Thompson Henderson Jaensch Ellis-Yolman
Emg From: Hampton Menzel Grigg Atkins Lyons Van Berlo MacKay Wigg Hartigan

[bennymacca]

Benny, I think you've touched on a very important and over looked stat, the fact you used only 32 players. That's incredible and important.

yep, that was the one stat that jumped out at my when reading the prospectus

What Adelaide have done, with the addition of Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel and to a lesser extent Cheney last year and Gore, is strengthen that gap between your best 22 and the 32nd best on your list.

Yep, should mean we dont have to play the likes of Van Berlo and MacKay

Also, the three you note above bookends Walker and Talia are critical to keeping Adelaide competitive. Especially Walker. If he goes down Jenkins becomes the go to deep and Lynch is the "big man" playing outside 50. That won't work.

The most critical is Jacobs, how many games has he missed in the last 3 years? ( Just looked, 24 in '12, 22 in '13, 22 in '14 and 23 in '15 - missed that game at Geelong ) It seems he's missed one game in 4 years! Seriously lost if he goes down.

Yep, our key trio of big men are probably up there with the best in the comp, but we are very light on if someone goes down. And this year you could throw Sloane into the mix as someone who we wont be able to cover if he gets injured

[bennymacca]

Forwards

Key Forwards - Ranked 6th, General Forwards, 10th

Elite - Betts
Above Average - Walker, Lynch
Average - Jenkins, Cameron
Below Average - Lyons, Knight
Poor - Menzel
? Milera, McGovern, Dear

Last year our forward line was one of the best in the competition. We had a great mix of Key, Mid and Small forwards, which was dynamic, unpredictable, and hard to match up on.

Betts, Walker, Jenkins, Lynch and Cameron shared in 229 goals between them. Riley Knight added pace and skills as a high forward.

This year we have added Menzel and Milera, who both look like they have the ability to play games this year, and will both push cameron and knight for their spots

Best Case
Our forward line continues to be one of the best in the AFL. Betts and Walker continue to feast on goals, and Jenkins and Lynch remain consistent contributors. Menzel, Milera, Grigg and Lyons all push for selection.

Worst Case
Tex Goes down, Betts goes missing, and we struggle to find avenues to goal. Menzel fails to run out the first quarter of games, and Milera spends the whole year in the SANFL.

[carey]

Here is my first crack at our best 22. I also want to break down each area to have a look at that, ill do that soon

List Changes
In: Gore, Seedsman, Hampton, Menzel, Milera, Doedee, Keath (R), Greenwood (R), Hunter (R), Beech (R)
Out: Dangerfield, Kerridge, Wright, Podsiadly, Reilly, Siggins, Martin, Osborne, Wilson

F Betts Jenkins Cameron
HF Lynch Walker Knight
C Seedsman , M Crouch, Douglas
HB Smith Lever Laird
B Cheney Talia Brown
R Jacobs B Crouch Sloane
I Thompson Henderson Jaensch Ellis-Yolman
Emg From: Hampton Menzel Grigg Atkins Lyons Van Berlo MacKay Wigg Hartigan

I think 6 of your emg should be miles in front of Jaensch. His shit.

Even Ellis-Yolman I reckon 3-4 of your emg should be in front of him. Plodder

I really like Grigg. Offers plenty, surprised his constantly over looked.

[bennymacca]

CEY is an inside mid, which is what we need.

I like grigg too but he doesn't get picked. Don't think he works hard enough defensively. Knight and Atkins consistently picked ahead of him. Hopefully he gets a crack this year though, would love to see him succeed.

Jaensch is one of the best kicks in the afl. Punchable face but a decent footballer

[Ron Burgundy]

I'd have Thompson, Sloane, M Crouch, or Douglas in for contested ball before CEY. Add a fit B Crouch in there too and we aren't too badly positioned.

CEY should be a back up for these guys. If age catches up with Thonpson then CEY plays.

[Grahaml]

A guy who is a clear #1 mid improves you all over the ground. Losing Dangerfield will just take a little bit away from everywhere else. Still plenty of upside to a heck of a lot of guys and importantly all over the field. The recruiting also helped across the board.

Forward line looks potent and balanced. Walker still has a lot more to offer. This is the season players traditionally get right back into it after a recon. If he gets the form he had before that, Betts and the other little guys will get their chances. I still think Walker could even improve on that. But he just has to eliminate the tendency to do things the hard way. No need to try a daisy cutting bullet pass over 50m when a 30m chip into space will hit a team mate. Cameron needs to smooth things out and will be fascinating to see what Menzel does.

Midfield top end talent is stretched. Dangerfield headlining made this a concern for opposition side, with Thompson and Sloane primarily the next guys. As second and third midfielders you'd be happy with that. But Thompson is just about done. A couple years ago he was right up there with the best mids around. Sloane, for all the heart and soul he brings, just doesn't do the damage of a Dangerfield or a 2012 Thompson. If he gets cleaner by hand in tight, or more dynamic by foot in the open then he might be in business. Best chance of the Crows midfield being a top line act is to be a very even group. But that means a big improvement by a few guys and you'd imagine the Crouch boys are the most likely. Ellis-Yeoman showed glimpses, but it's a long way from that to being a bona fide AFL midfielder. If he gets there, I don't see it being until Thompson is well and truly out of the picture. The key to all this though is Jacobs. Seems forgotten in some areas but at his best, Jacobs demands talk in the "best in the comp" arguments.

Defense is probably where the big improvement comes from. Talia is a star. Any defense that has a big bloke who can take the top forwards in the comp week in week out is a massive asset. Lever should be a lot better this year. Cheney is a pretty maligned footballer but I think he's spent his whole career being a small defender who was asked to play as a tall defender. If he can be allowed to play in his natural position then I think he could be more than handy. Truly selfless, desperate defenders are seemingly rare yet the game never seems to move past them.

All up, reckon it's a consolidation type year. Not really a rebuild, Adelaide shouldn't go anywhere near the bottom 4 this year with what they still have. But a new coach and restructuring a midfield that lost it's trump just takes a bit away and that costs you games these days. Start well and with confidence even an average team can look like pacesetters. But once the win/loss goes South it can all fall away in a month. Will probably know pretty early on where the team will end up, but the goal is to not do damage long term, find some new blokes, improve a bunch more and set up for a strong finals run in 2017.

[TEX07]

CEY is an inside mid, which is what we need.

I like grigg too but he doesn't get picked. Don't think he works hard enough defensively. Knight and Atkins consistently picked ahead of him. Hopefully he gets a crack this year though, would love to see him succeed.

Jaensch is one of the best kicks in the afl. Punchable face but a decent footballer

I know it was only training but I took the kids to the open training a few weeks back and what stood out most was how poor CEY foot skills were. I dont think he hit a target all session, with or without pressure. Especially when they looked as though they were doing drills where hitting targets was important he looked average at best. If you cant hit a target at training you are not going to struggle to convince a coaching staff you will do it at gameday. I found it interesting that he seemed to drop off when Campo took over last season.

[bennymacca]

Great assessment there graham.

And good discussion about CEY. this is certainly the year that will make or break him.