REB's Rubbish Round Four

[Rik E Boy]

This is one of those rounds when many people will tip along the same lines but a couple of major upsets loom. The Kangaroos and the Demons are a pretty good chance to break the ice but you could tip neither with confidence at the moment (so I haven't LOL). 14 Winners in three rounds is poor going by anyone's language so the only way is up!

Western Bulldogs have been ordinary in the last couple of games but don't expect an extremely green and undersized Richmond outfit to pressure the pups to the same level as St Kilda and Adelaide have managed because it just isn't on. The Tigers are honest but lack class and the Pups will be given their precious space and will romp away from the Tigers here. Got anything to declare? Yeah, don't tip Richmond. Bulldogs by 43 points.

Port Power look to have the Pies covered at the G for mine. With Brogan missing, watch out for Brendan Lade to step up and have a huge influence in this match. In a battle between two sides with good young talent, Port shades the Pies in this area in my view, even with the continuing absence of Pearce (what's up with him boyos?). Another area where Port comes out on top is in it's experienced players Clement may be back for the Pies to help out Presti, Rocca and evergreen Redleg Scott Burns but Port's experienced men in Wilson, Tredrea and Chad Cornes look more threatening. I reckon Baldy will have a solid hit out in this match and pose some problems for the Pies with the Power grabbing another away victory, this time by 19 points.

St Kilda fans Australia wide are probably cursing my decision to select them this week as every time I do they promptly fall over and when I don't they get up. The Bombers crashed back to earth against their nemesis Carlton last week while the Saints cranked it up a gear against the tackle-shy Bulldogs. The G Train's latest brain explosion hasn't helped their cause but Kosi and Riewoldt should be able to kick enough snags to keep ahead of Lloyd and Lucas in what could turn out to be a shootout. St Kilda should get the edge in midfield and prevent Lloyd, Lucas and Hird from converting too many opportunities. In the toughest match of the round, I reckon the Saints can hold on for a 10 point victory.

Brisbane wont be rolling out the welcome mat for Dutchy's mob and I've seen the Roos 'perform' at Carrara and believe me, there's no home ground advantage. The Lions have surprised many with their start to the season and what not disgraced last week at the Basketball Court. Players such as Adcock, Brennan and Risk-E-Telly (you bloody spell it) have grown an extra leg during the off season and Johnno Brown looks menacing. I'd expect Brown and goalsneaks like Notting and McGrath to rack up a winning tally against one of the more underwhelming defences in the league. Lions by 23 points and the Judd countdown is on.

Adelaide will win the insominiacs convention feature event at Dozi Stadium in a match that will resemble a game of lacrosse up back up back you get the drill and yes both combinatons are well drilled. Adelaide should be commended though for keeping up a solid game style despite a rapidly mounting injury list. I think Adelaide may be vulnerable against some of the 'lesser' sides perhaps but will lift here against the Swans. Early in the year the Swans aren't usually at their best and that is where they need to be if they hope to knock off Adelaide on their home deck. The Crows to win 2-1......I mean by 20 points.

Fremantle have been the most disappointing side of the year and this week they play the second most disappointing in Melbourne. The Demons have been given one of their best draws in recent years with a host of MCG games but don't have the cattle to take advantage of it. While they are missing McLean, Robertson, Neitz and have been missing Pickett and Sylvia (both listed to return), other players such as Johnstone, Yze, Davey and to a lesser extent MacDonald are in just plain old bad form. It is not in Melbourne's nature to play a flooding game but the word is that this is what they will try. The Dockers will be hungrier and if an 18 year old kid can carve up the Demon defence, what will Chris Tarrant and Matthew Pavlich do? Nope, it's the Dockers I reckon by 33 points in the end with the Demons running out of puff.

Geelong will be keen to exact some revenge on it's bogey team Hawthorn at Did the Siren just go Stadium. In last year's matches there was no run at all in the Cats team (probably why Tenance was selected in the squad this week) but with Byrnes, Stokes, Tenance and Wojinski, Geelong look better served in this area. Up front Nathan Ablett will rejoin a forward line that is suddenly the most productive in the AFL with Cameron Mooney, Tom Hawkins, Paul Chapman, Gary Ablett and even Dasher Milburn drifting up to have a ping. Hawthorn has shown it's concerns by promoting Zac Dawson who wasn't all that flash in the Magoos last week. The Big Cat Steven King will return to the side and wisely the club has rested Brad Ottens, giving the former skipper a chance to break down again. I always feel uneasy when we play these bastards but this time I reckon it will be the Cats day, but not by much. Geelong by 13 points.

West Coast were nearly beaten by this mob last season and Carlton have proven already this year that they can dish up the best and worst of football, quite often during the course of the same afternoon. Carlton will be a power in a couple of years but West Coast are this right now and won't let this one slip at home. Nick Stevens is out for the year and the Blue midfield will miss his experience against Kerr and Judd and the rest of those squeaky clean role models. West Coast's back half looks very strong at the moment and the only thing we know for sure about the Blues is that when Fev is held, they don't win. Glass is in sparkling form so get on the Eagles to win by 44 points.

regards,

REB

[McAlmanac]

Geelong are poor travellers. Have they played in Launceston before?

[smithy]

14 is not too bad REB.
In todays 'tiser, Geoff Roach was pleading with anyone who knew someone who had picked 8 out of 8 in a round so far this season cause of the topsy turvy results.

[Rik E Boy]

Geelong are poor travellers. Have they played in Launceston before?

No, therefore they are undefeated at this venue. I think Hawthorn have to travel to get to this ground also Mac.

regards,

REB

[McAlmanac]

Geelong are poor travellers. Have they played in Launceston before?

No, therefore they are undefeated at this venue. I think Hawthorn have to travel to get to this ground also Mac.

regards,

REB

My point being that Hawthorn have played at the ground a number of times.

[Rik E Boy]

Yes, there is a good case for the Hawks Mac and I'm hoping that is where we'll put you

My theory is this. We are expected to win so being on the road and going to Tassie might put a bit more resolve into the boys and turn out to be a positive. I'm almost glad this match is not at Cat Park (Hawthorn's record up there isn't bad). The Geelong 'poor traveller' tag is a bit of a myth IMO. Last year we won at the Gabba, AAMI Stadium and Subiaco (it was losing to you blokes and fargen Richmond AT HOME that stuffed us) and even when we couldn't win on the road in 2004 and 2005 we were getting close every time. Once we broke that huge run of outs on the road against Port at AAMI we've actually done pretty well.

The problem for Geelong as I see it is Lance Franklin and Mark Williams. We are a big side and have struggled to shut down the mobile forwards before. If those two get amongst the goals then you will win. On the plus side for us is that we are scoring a lot more goals lately..I don't see a flooding game as predicted by Thompson as I reckon he said that to encourage a shoot out, which he thinks our boys can win..and I agree.

Cheers,

REB

[Dutchy]

Ive gone the same REB, apart from Sydney getting up against the Crows.

Ive been keeping stats this year and the average Inside 50 so far is 50 per game, Sydney have conceded just 108 I50's in their 3 games....shows how hard their midfield work, Leo Barry's 200th and with Sydney healthy and the crows all banged up (Bassett, Rutten, Porplyzia, Van Berlo doubtful), Swans won 9 of their last 13 interstate games and Crouch is in...good enough for me

[Dissident]

14 is not too bad REB.
In todays 'tiser, Geoff Roach was pleading with anyone who knew someone who had picked 8 out of 8 in a round so far this season cause of the topsy turvy results.

Someone in our tipping competition got 8 in round two.

God knows how

[RustyCage]

http://portadelaidefc.com.au/Season2007/News/NewsArticle/tabid/6038/Default.aspx?newsId=41511

Although the boys from Alberton are known as the Power at AFL level, midfielder Jacob Surjan said the club’s rich SANFL heritage was not lost on the players.

“It’s a big game for us with the Port Adelaide ‘Magpies’ up against the Collingwood Magpies,” Surjan said.

What a champion!

[JK]

Not bad REB, except I reakon the Bombers might upset the Saints, and Sydney will out grind the Cows.

[Rik E Boy]

Not bad REB, except I reakon the Bombers might upset the Saints, and Sydney will out grind the Cows.

Yes, the Saints v Bombers match is a worry but I've been burnt by the Swans at AAMI before. I reckon the Saint midfield might carry the day.

regards,

REB

[sydney-dog]

Dutchy

Adelaide has the best record against the swans better than any other club in the afl, adelaide have won 17 out of 26 encounters, including the last 5, lets remember the swans played off in to GF's during this period

Recent form against Sydney:
Round 14, 2006, Adelaide 15.11 (101) d Sydney 8.14 (62), SCG
Round 18, 2005, Adelaide 8.6 (54) d Sydney 6.11 (47), AAMI
Round 4, 2005, Adelaide 18.12 (120) d Sydney 11.13 (79), SCG
Round 15, 2004, Sydney 8.10 (58) d Adelaide 6.9 (45), SCG
Round 18, 2003, Adelaide 14.13 (97) d Sydney 14.9 (93), AAMI

if Adelaide beat Sydney, I'm wondering if the club's depth will finally get some credit

[Dutchy]

Dutchy

Adelaide has the best record against the swans better than any other club in the afl, adelaide have won 17 out of 26 encounters, including the last 5, lets remember the swans played off in to GF's during this period

Recent form against Sydney:
Round 14, 2006, Adelaide 15.11 (101) d Sydney 8.14 (62), SCG
Round 18, 2005, Adelaide 8.6 (54) d Sydney 6.11 (47), AAMI
Round 4, 2005, Adelaide 18.12 (120) d Sydney 11.13 (79), SCG
Round 15, 2004, Sydney 8.10 (58) d Adelaide 6.9 (45), SCG
Round 18, 2003, Adelaide 14.13 (97) d Sydney 14.9 (93), AAMI

if Adelaide beat Sydney, I'm wondering if the club's depth will finally get some credit

I understand all this but as Ive said everything points to Sydney winning here....who would you put money on if you had to?

How are the Crows going to score with only 36 Inside 50'?

[sydney-dog]

Dutchy

Mate, I am still going with Adelaide

It's hard to draw a line thru the swans form, round 1 they lost to a depleted Eagles side in Sydney, they beat the Tigers in round 2, last week Brisbane was the better side for 70% of the game, so I think the Swans are far from consistent form.

Historically Adelaide have matched up well against the swans, if Truck misses for Adelaide than it's a 50 / 50 bet, if truck plays, than I am very confident

Goddes is a key for Sydney tomorrow, but his form at present is ordinary, Crouch comes after missing a lot of footy

The team that wins the most contested ball will win the contest, Adelaide has been fantastic in this area over the past two week

My tip Adelaide by 19pts

[Dutchy]

Looking forward to going to the game tomorrow night, havent looked forward to going to a crows game as much as this one for a while...be great to see a grand finalist of the past 2 years...

[sydney-dog]

dutchy

lets hope it's a great evening and a great game of footy

[Hondo]

Agree with all your picks REB apart from Collingwood. I think the Pies will be too good on the day but Port will take it right up to them. One of them will go to 3-1.

I am tipping the Crows too ...... just

[PortAdelaideProud]

Great win for the real Magpies, Port Adelaide.

[Dutchy]

Great win for the real Magpies, Port Adelaide.

yawn...

[Rik E Boy]

Great win for the real Magpies, Port Adelaide.

yawn...

Ditto.

regards,

REB