MELBOURNE
to defeat St Kilda on Friday night. The Sainters appear to be a little underdone, looking especially vulnerable in the back half at the moment. Even though I think the Demons are overated powder puffs, at the G they are a feared combination and I expect them to salute here. Melbourne by 25 points.
COLLINGWOOD
should open their account for the year against the Roos who have had precious little time to adjust to life after not only Rocca but Thompson as well. The Pie forward line looks similarly challenged but Rocca, Fraser and Travis Cloke should be able to manufacture a winning score against the Roos in front of a pro Pie crowd. Collingwood by 17 points.
FREMANTLE
will start the season with a home triumph which is by no means inevitable when you consider Port's four wins from six matches record against the Dockers at Putriaco. However, the combinations that will run out on Saturday will bear little resemblence to the sides that have appeared in those past six matches. The Dockers are now an experienced combination with depth, and Port has lost a lot of experience since winning the 2004 flag. I expect the Dockers to win running away by 33 points.
BRISBANE
Lions will start off the year with a bang against the Hawks who will be missing a few key players for its trip up to the Gabba. The key of course is Johnno Brown and the Hawks look vulnerable against teams who boast power forwards and there is none so formidable as Jonathon Brown. I think the Lions will get on a roll here and win by 55 points.
SYDNEY
will overcome their great rivals in the season opener not because of the off field dramas but because Cousins is out and Everitt is in for Sydney. Paul Roos premiership was built on the back of a powerful ruck duo and last year Geelong discard Paul Chambers didn't fit the bill and Jolly was forced to go it alone. The Everitt/Jolly combination will exert more pressure on Eagle giant Cox and with the famed Eagle midfield missing a vital cylinder, it will be enough to tilt the balance Sydney's way. Sydney by 11 points.
ADELAIDE
are more than a bit lucky to be playing Essendon this week IMO. The ruck division looks threadbare with Maric and Meesen injured and Hudson will have to battle manfully against the much improved David Hille. Fortunately for Adelaide, the Bomber midfield isn't much to write home about so they should break even in the centre at least despite any ruck advantage the Bombers may get. Adelaide's defence can shut down Essendon's strength (the forward line) and I expect this to be a rather dour contest with Adelaide winning by 8 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
should record a victory against Geelong at the Dome in Round one. Both sides are not at full strength here but the key omissions for mine is the non appearance of Geelong's current and past captains, Harley and King. It is no secret that Geelong has a leadership problem and Harley not being on deck is not a good sign for the Cats. Back up ruckman Mark Blake will make a good ruckman in time but he will concede first use of the ball in midfield too often for the Cats to get up. Many Bulldog stars will be missing or underdone as well so this is the toughest match of the round to pick but if Ottens has to go into the ruck, then the Geelong forward line will revolve around the unpredicatable Mooney and the underdone Chapman and Ablett. The Bulldogs, just by 10 points.
CARLTON
can continue that winning feeling for another week against a Richmond side that looks totally devoid of any ruck options at all with Hall and Simmonds out injured for the Tigers. Carlton are not strong in the ruck but Cloke and Ackland can start off their Blue career on a high note and give the young Blue tyros and Nick Stevens leather poisoning as they regularly pump the ball towards Betts, Fevola and Whitnall. Down back the presence of Waite and the improving O'Halphin can restrict a Tiger forward line that is still Richo conscious after all these years. Carlton to win by 76 points and be the surprise league leaders after round one.
OK, there's four winnners. Try to pick which ones!
regards,
REB
