Changing of the guard

[Rik E Boy]

The most fascinating thing about supporting any sport is what was called in 100 Years of Australian Football 'the endless cycle of failure and renewal'. In other words, no team can stay on top forever although in Rugby League the St George Dragons came pretty close with eleven straight flags in the 50's and 60's.

While my mob has had a pretty charmed run over the last few seasons it seems obvious to me that the dreaded 'slide' has begun. I reckon we've been worked out by more than one team and that's all it takes to miss the Grand Final. Here's where I see some of the sides and their role in the 'changing of the guard'.

COLLINGWOOD

For me the Pies are the hier apparent. Not in terms of extended dominance but in terms of a lenghty stint at the top four at the very least. I reckon they can win at least a couple of flags but I'm not so sure about this year's cup for some reason (just a hunch a total lack of logic there). While St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs (and to a lesser extent the Hawks) dominated the league, the Pies were playing a lot of young players who have no become league regulars. The Pies are going to be about the place over the next five years.


ST KILDA

St Kilda's game plan, while tough to watch - keeps them in the hunt for a few more years. One thing that the Saints have going for them this year is HUNGER. This mob are hungry and I reckon they might take out this year's flag (of course I hope I'm wrong). I believe that they can grab a flag but they might disappear fast in Hawthorn like fashion once they get one. The recent drafts have been to search for experience and pace so they'll have to draft youth at some stage.

GEELONG

The Catters won't die gracefully as we all saw as us supporters, players and even the coach got mighty grumpy last Friday. We'll fight and claw but the fact remains boys we are starting to slide. A lot of Cat supporters will cry SACRILEDGE but we are going to start to drop an extra couple of games a year. How the club manages the transition of youth to replace the premiership stars is crucial. We could possibly pinch this year's cup but personally I don't see us beating Freo, Collingwood and (possibly) the Saints to win a third flag.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Had a similiar window as Geelong and the Saints and has come up short. The recruitment of Hall kept them in this year but this team needs to regain it's touch as it's kicking effiecency has been fairly poor over the past two seasons. All is not lost for the Doggies as I reckon they've got some promising younger players, certainly more than the Saints. Won't bottom out totally but risks becoming the Adelaide of the current decade by sitting 5-8 every year and missing out on draft picks.

FREMANTLE

I believe that the Dockers are about to enter a golden age for the club. This year they have made giant strides and Harvey will turn out to be Freo's Bomber and Choco all in one. Fremantle look the best equipped to surge into the top four next year and I reckon we might see more than one Freo vs. Collingwood Grand Final in the next five or six years.

CARLTON

The Blues have surprised me. They still have a few missing pieces in the backline but the way they fashioned a functional forward line after losing a Coleman medallist and the way Warnock came on in the Ruck after a Rising Star went down was a credit to the club. The Bluebaggers need to get their hands on a solid defender to help out in the back six and if they can manage that then Ratten will break his finals duck.

I reckon that it's a monty that North will rise and Melbourne with them. It will be interesting to see just how successful the new franchaises are but if the AFL have their way by 2015 the finals could look like this.

1. Freo
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. Gold Coast
5. Sydney
6. Adelaide
7. Melbourne
8. West Sydney

I reckon Adrian Anderson and Vlad would crack a chubby if that eight ever happened. Imagine the week one match ups.

regards,

REB

[White Line Fever]

Do you do any work?

[Booney]

Interesting stat on Geelong going into tonights game REB.

They have one player with under 50 games experience. Podsiadly at 29 years of age. Shows how the legs will be slowing down as the bodies weary and I agree, 2010 is it for the Catters and it will be the most satisfying of wins if they can pull it off.

I think you should have included Sydney in your discussion as they appear to have, since 2005, been able to avoid the slide by introducing young blood, quality young blood and keeping their list competitive. Might be a testament to Roos and I think Longmire will have a tough job replicating this success, but I expect Sydney to be a challenger over the next two or three years too.

[Mr Beefy]

COLLINGWOOD

For me the Pies are the hier apparent. Not in terms of extended dominance but in terms of a lenghty stint at the top four at the very least.

REB

They have been prelim finalists in 2007, 2009 & 2010, hopefully they wont be extending their top 4 finishes for much longer. Perhaps their time at the top is also coming to an end. They seem to very even across the ground, hopefully a few retirements and injury will test their much heralded depth. It's easy to have depth when you have very few injuries.

[Booney]

COLLINGWOOD

For me the Pies are the hier apparent. Not in terms of extended dominance but in terms of a lenghty stint at the top four at the very least.

REB

They have been prelim finalists in 2007, 2009 & 2010, hopefully they wont be extending their top 4 finishes for much longer. Perhaps their time at the top is also coming to an end. They seem to very even across the ground, hopefully a few retirements and injury will test their much heralded depth. It's easy to have depth when you have very few injuries.

Include GF's in 02 and 03 with that and they have been able to buck the trend a little.

[Rik E Boy]

Interesting stat on Geelong going into tonights game REB.

They have one player with under 50 games experience. Podsiadly at 29 years of age. Shows how the legs will be slowing down as the bodies weary and I agree, 2010 is it for the Catters and it will be the most satisfying of wins if they can pull it off.

I think you should have included Sydney in your discussion as they appear to have, since 2005, been able to avoid the slide by introducing young blood, quality young blood and keeping their list competitive. Might be a testament to Roos and I think Longmire will have a tough job replicating this success, but I expect Sydney to be a challenger over the next two or three years too.

I see Sydney remaining in the 5-8 bracket.

regards,

REB

[Q.]

COLLINGWOOD

For me the Pies are the hier apparent. Not in terms of extended dominance but in terms of a lenghty stint at the top four at the very least.

REB

They have been prelim finalists in 2007, 2009 & 2010, hopefully they wont be extending their top 4 finishes for much longer. Perhaps their time at the top is also coming to an end. They seem to very even across the ground, hopefully a few retirements and injury will test their much heralded depth. It's easy to have depth when you have very few injuries.

There will certainly be retirements from the likes of Lockyer and O'Bree etc, but these fellas can't even crack the 1st 22 at the moment.

The depth is there, the problem will be in retaining the depth. As Geelong somewhat found out, those players struggling to get a crack in the 1st 22 will probably look elsewhere at contract's end.

[JK]

Im not sold on Freo becoming a big gun ... Whilst I wouldn't rule it out they could be just as likely to drop back to old ways of struggling to win in Melbourne, need a bit more time to see how they manage after a breakout year, when they're likely to be more heavily subjected to the microscope.

I think the Roo's, Dee's and Tigers all have improvement coming in the next few years, and for some that could be significant improvement.

REB - Once the Saints window shuts, can you see them experiencing a fair slide given the possibility they could lose stars like St Nick, Kosi, Goddard, Hayes etc fairly close together?

[Rik E Boy]

Im not sold on Freo becoming a big gun ... Whilst I wouldn't rule it out they could be just as likely to drop back to old ways of struggling to win in Melbourne, need a bit more time to see how they manage after a breakout year, when they're likely to be more heavily subjected to the microscope.

I think the Roo's, Dee's and Tigers all have improvement coming in the next few years, and for some that could be significant improvement.

REB - Once the Saints window shuts, can you see them experiencing a fair slide given the possibility they could lose stars like St Nick, Kosi, Goddard, Hayes etc fairly close together?

Re the Saints yeah I can see a rapid slide. Re Tigers I forgot about them so CoverKing won't be happy.

regards,

REB

[Q.]

On Freo:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/sports/2010/09/10/a-diary-of-a-freo-fan-in-melbourn/

[Mr Beefy]

COLLINGWOOD

For me the Pies are the hier apparent. Not in terms of extended dominance but in terms of a lenghty stint at the top four at the very least.

REB

They have been prelim finalists in 2007, 2009 & 2010, hopefully they wont be extending their top 4 finishes for much longer. Perhaps their time at the top is also coming to an end. They seem to very even across the ground, hopefully a few retirements and injury will test their much heralded depth. It's easy to have depth when you have very few injuries.

There will certainly be retirements from the likes of Lockyer and O'Bree etc, but these fellas can't even crack the 1st 22 at the moment.

The depth is there, the problem will be in retaining the depth. As Geelong somewhat found out, those players struggling to get a crack in the 1st 22 will probably look elsewhere at contract's end.

This the collingwoods 22 from the last VFL game (in which they got smashed)
Paul Medhurst
John Anthony
Shane O'Bree
Anthony Corrie
Cameron Wood
Tarkyn Lockyer
Ben Sinclair
Ryan Cook
Scott Reed
Josh Thomas
Simon Buckley
Jaxson Barham
Lachlan Keeffe
Tristan Francis
Jack Carter
Tom Young
Seamus Mcnamara
Kristopher Pendlebury
Tim Hunt
Tom Sundberg
Ryan Colbert
Patrick Liston
How many of these blokes would get a game somewhere else? Who are half of them? Is Josh Thomas the bloke from Talking about your generation?
I'm just saying that if you dont get injuries, your depth doesn't get tested.

[Drop Bear]

On Freo:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/sports/2010/09/10/a-diary-of-a-freo-fan-in-melbourn/

Purple

[Q.]

This the collingwoods 22 from the last VFL game (in which they got smashed)
Paul Medhurst
John Anthony
Shane O'Bree
Anthony Corrie
Cameron Wood
Tarkyn Lockyer
Ben Sinclair
Ryan Cook
Scott Reed
Josh Thomas
Simon Buckley
Jaxson Barham
Lachlan Keeffe
Tristan Francis
Jack Carter
Tom Young
Seamus Mcnamara
Kristopher Pendlebury
Tim Hunt
Tom Sundberg
Ryan Colbert
Patrick Liston
How many of these blokes would get a game somewhere else? Who are half of them? Is Josh Thomas the bloke from Talking about your generation?
I'm just saying that if you dont get injuries, your depth doesn't get tested.

There's a fair bit of AFL experience in that list, as well as two or three very promising rookies.

Collingwood have had a good run with injuries so far this year, so we can only speculate as to whether these blokes can step up - sometimes when you're having to prove yourself to keep a spot in the team it makes you step up.

[stan]

This the collingwoods 22 from the last VFL game (in which they got smashed)
Paul Medhurst
John Anthony
Shane O'Bree
Anthony Corrie
Cameron Wood
Tarkyn Lockyer
Ben Sinclair
Ryan Cook
Scott Reed
Josh Thomas
Simon Buckley
Jaxson Barham
Lachlan Keeffe
Tristan Francis
Jack Carter
Tom Young
Seamus Mcnamara
Kristopher Pendlebury
Tim Hunt
Tom Sundberg
Ryan Colbert
Patrick Liston
How many of these blokes would get a game somewhere else? Who are half of them? Is Josh Thomas the bloke from Talking about your generation?
I'm just saying that if you dont get injuries, your depth doesn't get tested.

There's a fair bit of AFL experience in that list, as well as two or three very promising rookies.

Collingwood have had a good run with injuries so far this year, so we can only speculate as to whether these blokes can step up - sometimes when you're having to prove yourself to keep a spot in the team it makes you step up.

People seem to forget that one thing you need for a crack at the flag is a good run without injuries.
Collingwood are primed for this season, they have been going great guns with a full list.

[mighty hounds]

I think the crows will be a powerhouse before the dockers will. i think the crows will be primed by 2015 or even earlier for another tilt at the flag with their list atm. the dockers inability to win interstate will be their downfall if they continue that trend.

p.s. collingwood can win as much as they like but no flags please

[Voice]

I think the crows will be a powerhouse before the dockers will. i think the crows will be primed by 2015 or even earlier for another tilt at the flag with their list atm. the dockers inability to win interstate will be their downfall if they continue that trend.

p.s. collingwood can win as much as they like but no flags please

They were winning plenty of games interstate this year until the injuries hit. Up to round 13 they had won at Etihad twice, SCG and GABBA. So I think they are on the right track to turning that around too.

[mighty hounds]

I think the crows will be a powerhouse before the dockers will. i think the crows will be primed by 2015 or even earlier for another tilt at the flag with their list atm. the dockers inability to win interstate will be their downfall if they continue that trend.

p.s. collingwood can win as much as they like but no flags please

They were winning plenty of games interstate this year until the injuries hit. Up to round 13 they had won at Etihad twice, SCG and GABBA. So I think they are on the right track to turning that around too.

ok they have done it once in 1 years. still not proven yet

[LMA]

Collingwood will continue to be a top 4 side as long as they keep getting the draw they get.

[gadj1976]

Collingwood will continue to be a top 4 side as long as they keep getting the draw they get.

I think they can't really be beaten this year, however I hope (as a Carlton supporter) they do. No injuries to speak of, versus the seasoned warrior in Geelong next week.

There really isn't much going for Geelong - they're injured, tired (IMO) but they have the fighting spirit about them. It's like a bout of Tyson (Geelong) vs Lewis (Collingwood). Collingwood is stronger and refreshed, but Geelong has 'been there, done that'. Carn the underdog (BTW, I'm a massive Lewis fan!).

Collingwood will continue to get good draws, but playing in finals series will count against them eventually as it has with Bris and Geel in the latter stages of their 'premiership window'.

[Adelaide Hawk]

Collingwood will continue to be a top 4 side as long as they keep getting the draw they get.

They've only been top 4 in three of the past 7 seasons, and 5 times in the past 20. Irrespective of the draw, you still have to be good enough.