SANFL Round 6 and Round 5 review

[devilsadvocate]

OK, will post Round 6 odds when they're up (probably Friday 5pm again!!!).

But in the mean time, I have an interesting observation from last week and prior rounds.

At Centrebet, South Adelaide last week had a line of +44.5 when the market was first published. Given their relative form improvements and the fact that they were playing at home in blustery, potentially wet conditions, I jumped all over them. (NOTE: I know it's against forum rules to discuss bets after the fact, but please just humor me on this occasion for the sake of discussion).

In round 1 many of us jumped on South's line of +50.5, which was potentially warranted at the time and more of a punt than Rnd 5.

Will the bookies continue to gift us generous lines on an improving South Adelaide? Obviously this week, South will start favourites, but taking their line has been a doozie for me so far this season.

Thoughts? Any other gift patterns? (Betting against the Hawks has been fairly reliable, but less of a gift)

[mighty_tiger_79]

south at home over the past season they have performed well with line betting

[saintal]

When I first saw the markets South were at +27.5. Would have had a crack at +44.5 certainly. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.

[Dutchy]

+27.5 was still great value, didnt see anything higher...Ill post the ATS record of South at home tomorrow, pretty amazing

[RoosterMarty]

The South line was good but I couldn't back them as I saw North belt the crap out of a South side that didn't look interested just a week earlier.

[mighty_tiger_79]

SANFL 2010 More AFL Options Bet On SANFL Premiership 2010
SANFL Round 6 (Expand All Markets)

Norwood v Sturt 30/4
2010-04-30T10:10:0017:40 PM, Fri 30 Apr 2010

Team
Head To Head Line
Norwood 3.00 (+20.5) 1.90
Sturt 1.36 (-20.5) 1.90

Head To Head - Select the winning team - Pay on Official Result
Line - Select team to win, with a plus or minus handicap. - Pay on Official Result






Port Adelaide v South Adelaide 1/5
2010-05-01T04:40:0012:10 PM, Sat 01 May 2010

Team
Head To Head
Port Adelaide 2.05
South Adelaide 1.75

Head To Head - Select the winning team - Pay on Official Result





Eagles v West Adelaide 2/5
2010-05-02T04:40:0012:10 PM, Sun 02 May 2010

Team
Head To Head Line
Eagles 1.40 (-18.5) 1.90
West Adelaide 2.90 (+18.5) 1.90

Head To Head - Select the winning team - Pay on Official Result
Line - Select team to win, with a plus or minus handicap. - Pay on Official Result






North Adelaide v Centrals 2/5
2010-05-02T04:40:0012:10 PM, Sun 02 May 2010

Team
Head To Head
North Adelaide 1.95
Centrals 1.85

Head To Head - Select the winning team - Pay on Official Result

[devilsadvocate]

Courtesy of Centrebet with all lines:

Win Line

NORWOOD vs STURT
1. NORWOOD 4.30 +28.5 : 1.90
2. STURT 1.20 -28.5 : 1.90

PORT ADELAIDE vs SOUTH ADELAIDE
1. PORT ADELAIDE 2.15 +6.5 : 1.90
2. SOUTH ADELAIDE 1.70 -6.5 : 1.90

WOODVILLE WEST TORRENS vs WEST ADELAIDE
1. WOODVILLE WEST TORRENS 1.52 -12.5 : 1.90
2. WEST ADELAIDE 2.50 +12.5 : 1.90

NORTH ADELAIDE vs CENTRAL DISTRICT
1. NORTH ADELAIDE 2.70 +15.5 : 1.90
2. CENTRAL DISTRICT 1.45 -15.5 : 1.90

No real standout value this week. Norwood's line isn't big enough and despite Centrals being a complete shambles last week, I'm not game to put any hard earned on North.

[devilsadvocate]

Bit of an arbitrage opportunity between bookies here lads:


Sportsbet:

Centrals - $500 @ 1.85 = $925

Centrebet:

North - $342 - $425 @ 2.7 = $925 - $1,147 (Optimal - $385 @ 2.7 = $1,093.5)

Assuming optimal North bet:

Central win - $40 profit
North win - $208.5 profit

A draw and you're ********!!!

[RoosterMarty]

I am surprised North are so long but we have just lost Craig to injury so we could struggle in ruck against the superstar Griffin.

Always risky betting on the Roosters though as I found out last week.

[brent-83]

Griffins 4 touches and 9 taps will be the deciding factor for sure

[mal]

Bit of an arbitrage opportunity between bookies here lads:


Sportsbet:

Centrals - $500 @ 1.85 = $925

Centrebet:

North - $342 - $425 @ 2.7 = $925 - $1,147 (Optimal - $385 @ 2.7 = $1,093.5)

Assuming optimal North bet:

Central win - $40 profit
North win - $208.5 profit

A draw and you're ********!!!

Draw with these 2 companies will be half the dividend
No need to panic on your optiMAL invetsments

This is better than backing the LATE MALS !!!!

[stampy]

still a risk cos of that draw to lose some of your cash

[Q.]

Got burnt last week taking CD at $1.50. Tossing up whether to take the $1.90 on offer.

[mighty_tiger_79]

could still bet on the draw and then guarantee profit

[JK]

Got burnt last week taking CD at $1.50.

Ditto

[Wedgie]

I've loaded up on the Magpies with our sponsor at $2.25 and +9.5.

[mighty_tiger_79]

south 1-39 - $2.20 just to keep me interested as i watch

[devilsadvocate]

I've loaded up on the Magpies with our sponsor at $2.25 and +9.5.

Well played.

South are on a rollercoaster!