Jockey Challenge

[Oaksnaf]

You have to wonder though Mr. Carlson, why anyone would place a bet with a bookie on track. Or why anyone would place a bet with the TAB, or why anyone would want to bet into a fixed odds market for futures. Or why anyone gambles full-stop.

You could throw up markets @ 185% each time. And you might still find the VALUE. Of course it is a huge hurdle to overcome. But if your patient enough and have the right resources you might find the 'mistakes' and profit.

I would assume that if you looked at the average odds of winners against the average field size against the average number of rides for the Jockey's, you might be able to find a reasonable window of profit.

[WestIndiesWonder24]

Definately See Your Point DC and you have brought up some very valid facts.

JC Are definately to the advantage of the bookies and I think in making a consistent collect on these, betting has to be altered within the first 3 races when the markets are usually open, i.e find value from a jockey when he is say $12 , his ride/mount is backed and say a result and points are made would then come under say $4, This is where the Value is orignally found and the rest of programs have to be mapped out and value can then be found to covers bets from there.

[Brodlach]

WIW - Gl with finding the Value.

Your main problem on the JC is the horrible %'s the markets are, I ask you this - is there any large pro punters making a living off the tote, the answer is no because the 17% kills them over a long period of time. At least with win and place markets you can use betfair at 100% so their is no edge to the bookies. Most JC markets are at least 130% so theoretically when u bet u need to bet $130 to return $100 if you were to back every runner.

Value in these markets is very very hard to find and you guys are betting every meeting, I originally posted here to try and save you from yourselves - every1 laughed at my point of view and were convinced they could make money on this bet type. Nothing in this 400 post thread has proven that you can consistently make money (without getting mistakes).

Just have a think whether you like a Jockey because of 1 or 2 of their rides wouldn't it be better to back them individually instead of spreading your money across all rides including horses you think have no hope of finishing top 3.

A shoutout here is required for my old mate brod who it appears has finally seen that he is donating to the bookies with his JC bets well done mate
DC

Sorry to disappoint DC, but I still do have a flutter on the JC's, just dont have as much time to discuss on here to as before.

[Dutchy]

Following JC's certainly helps your general punting on the horses though IMO

[Mr_Willy]

For the record, I am very keen on Lindop at the mount today....

[Brodlach]

For the record, I am very keen on Lindop at the mount today....

Mr Willy, some nice odds about her.

This is the TABSportsbet market, which they all seem to use as a guide.

49601 TOURNEUR Dom 2.05 $
49602 PATTERSON Adrian 2.35 $
49603 LINDOP Clare 10.00 $
49604 HILL Jack 17.00 $
49605 NEILSON Matthew 16.00 $
49606 POST Kane 23.00 $
49607 DYSON Kate 31.00 $
49608 ANY OTHER INDIVIDUAL JOCKEY 13.00 $

[Brodlach]

Here are the other 3

JOCK MstPts EAGLE FARM - Leading Point Scorer
Odds updated at 09:24:14 13:07 Wed 24 Feb 2010
Sportsbet No. Selection (default) Price Amount Total
49591 KATSIDIS Stathi 1.85 $
49592 MUNCE Chris 3.90 $
49593 SCRIVEN Shane 7.50 $
49594 BYRNE Jim 8.50 $
49595 BROWNE Damian 10.00 $
49596 SEAMER Scott 13.00 $
49597 SPEERS Mitchell 61.00 $
49598 ANY OTHER INDIVIDUAL JOCKEY 23.00 $


JOCK MstPts WARWICK FARM - Leading Point Scorer
Odds updated at 08:50:48 13:17 Wed 24 Feb 2010
Sportsbet No. Selection (default) Price Amount Total
49581 MCEVOY Kerrin 2.10 $
49582 BROWN Corey 2.90 $
49583 SHINN Blake 4.60 $
49584 ANGLAND Tye 15.00 $
49585 LOVELOCK-WIGGINS Taylor 17.00 $
49586 AVDULLA Brenton 23.00 $
49587 OHARA Kathy 51.00 $
49588 ANY OTHER INDIVIDUAL JOCKEY 14.00 $


JOCK MstPts SANDOWN (H) - Leading Point Scorer
Odds updated at 08:32:22 13:35 Wed 24 Feb 2010
Sportsbet No. Selection (default) Price Amount Total
49571 HALL Nicholas 2.10 $
49572 MASKIELL Jason 4.80 $
49573 SYMONS Chris 3.70 $
49574 DUNN Dwayne 12.00 $
49575 NOLEN Luke 12.00 $
49576 ZAHRA Mark 23.00 $
49577 EVANS Brent 35.00 $
49578 ANY OTHER INDIVIDUAL JOCKEY 11.00 $

[Mr_Willy]

Can someone please post the TATTSBETS odds when they are available and also the Offer Numbers as I will be out of the office today and can't view that stuff on my phone!

[Brodlach]

Can someone please post the TATTSBETS odds when they are available and also the Offer Numbers as I will be out of the office today and can't view that stuff on my phone!

Heres Sandown Mr Willy, but they dont have offer numbers on the site, you click the actaul price.

Sandown 3-2-1 24/02 - Leading Point Scorer
Hall Nicholas 2.15
Symons Chris 3.70
Maskiell Jason 5.00
Nolen Luke 12.00
Any Other Indiv Jock (Sand) 12.00
Dunn Dwayne 14.00
Zahra Mark 19.00
Evans Brent 26.00

[Oaksnaf]

Does anyone know where I can find some Pre Post Odds that are consistent/accurate for Mt Gambier?

[Mr_Willy]

Thanks brod. Can ya post the mount odds when they're up. Might just call them

[Brodlach]

Thanks brod. Can ya post the mount odds when they're up. Might just call them

Will do.

[Oaksnaf]

Mt Gambier

Code: Select all

Jockey   Odds   Rides   Ave Odds   Ave Field
D Tourneur   $2.05   8   5.3   11.75
A Patterson   $2.35   9   8.5   11.6
C Lindop   $10   6   10.1   11.6
J Hill   $17   8   17.8   11.625
M Neilson   $16   7   16.5   11.85
K Post   $23   8   12.3   11.625
K Dyson   $31   6   18.6   12.5


[Oaksnaf]

Mt Gambier point scoring history

D Tourneur 21/31 rides has scored points
A Patterson 28/49 rides
C Lindop ??
J Hill ??
M Neilson 6/9 (FIVE WINNERS)
K Post 21/35
K Dyson ??

[Oaksnaf]

Top 20 Important point scoring races

Race 2 - Patterson
Race 6- Frew
Race 3 - Hill
Race 7 - Tourneur
Race 1 - Tourneur
Race 4 - Maund
Race 8 - Dyson
Race 6 - Patterson
Race 1 - Lindop
Race 7 - Lever
Race 1 - Bishop
Race 3 - Tourneur
Race 4 - Puls
Race 5 - Walters
Race 9 - Tourneur
Race 5 - Post
Race 8 - Walters
Race 6 - Tourneur
Race 9 - Lindop
Race 1 - Patterson


Tourneur has 5 of the top 20. Patterson 3 of the Top 20. Walters/Lindop 2.

[Brodlach]

Tattsbet

Warwick Farm 24/02 2010-02-24T02:17:00112:47 PM, Wed 24 Feb 2010
Additional Markets (Collapse All) Bet Win Odds
Warwick Farm 3-2-1 24/02 - Leading Point Scorer
McEvoy Kerrin 2.15
Brown Corey 2.80
Shinn Blake 4.80
Any Other Indiv Jock (Wfarm) 15.00
Lovelock-Wiggins Taylor 17.00
Angland Tye 17.00
Avdulla Brenton 26.00
O'Hara Kathy 51.00

[Brodlach]

Tattsbet

Mount Gambier (Collapse All Markets)

showAllPrices Mt Gambier 24/02 2010-02-24T01:45:00112:15 PM, Wed 24 Feb 2010
Additional Markets (Collapse All) Bet Win Odds
Mt Gambier 3-2-1 24/02 - Leading Point Scorer
Tourneur Dom 2.10
Patterson Adrian 2.40
Lindop Clare 10.00
Any Other Indiv Jock (MtGa) 13.00
Neilson Matthew 16.00
Hill Jack 17.00
Post Kane 21.00
Dyson Kate 31.00

[Brodlach]

Sportingbet have most of their markets up already including Tasmania

[Mop Up]

Neilson or Hill for value at mount maybe
maybe Evans worth a shot at 30s, bit of a raffle really inmelb

thoughts anyone?

[Oaksnaf]

Mount Gambier

Nielson has 7 rides. Ave odds = $16.50. Average field size is 11.85.
Nielson has won 5/9 races at Mount Gambier in the current season.
Nielson's best chances to score are in races 4,8,9. Wait after Race 2 to place bet if backing Neilson.

Hill has 8 rides. Ave odds = $18. Ave field size is 11.625
Hill has no record at mt Gambier that I could find through google
Hill's best chances to score are in races 1,2,3,9.
I suggest betting on HILL early, as they are his main chances to score points.

D Tourneur should win. I think he and Post are the VALUE runners. Nielson perhaps after Race 2 could be value.