Jockey Challenge

[Dutchy]

Travers still a rough chance for me there also, Id written him off

[dodgingandweaving]

just a thought lads... but i seem to have more success when i pick a JC without putting too much research in, and picking on feel..... any thoughts?

[Oaksnaf]

Thoughts = knee jerk reaction.

Keep records. Don't base your thoughts on memory. Because its selective.

[dodgingandweaving]

What do you suggest is contained within these records?

who you backed?
how many rides they had?
what price?

etc, etc

[mighty_tiger_79]

track

trainers

you probably need to get an idea on horses racing pattern to see if it suits the jockey

[dodgingandweaving]

Further look at Rawiller's rides. All super. Centrebet have him at $8.50... TAB $11.....


$500 Rawiller $11

+
Queanbyean
$100 Taylor Love-Wig $7
$100 AOJ $10

Taree
$500 D Spriggs $2.35
Wins the last to salvage something..... 1/2 div

Going a bit harder today coz i have the day off & think Spriggs & Rawiller are definite OVERS.

[dodgingandweaving]

Further look at Rawiller's rides. All super. Centrebet have him at $8.50... TAB $11.....


$500 Rawiller $11

+
Queanbyean
$100 Taylor Love-Wig $7
$100 AOJ $10

Taree
$500 D Spriggs $2.35
Wins the last to salvage something..... 1/2 div

Going a bit harder today coz i have the day off & think Spriggs & Rawiller are definite OVERS.

wins the last to salvage something... 1/2 div

[dodgingandweaving]

more data crunching needed...

especially for jocks on certain tracks...

taylor lovelock wiggin's love affair with queanbyean is clear.....

[Oaksnaf]

Just start recording the data now.

Otherwise, you'll have to get a few programs or find a few people who store that kind of data and purchase it off them.

[dodgingandweaving]

something like so.....

track - queanbyean
strike rate W/P jockeys
strike rate W/P trainers

[Dutchy]

On the first post in this thread Ive put the Strike rate link...

[Davey Carlson]

JC's have so many variables.

Hope this is a valuable lesson. We're learning all the time here.

Geez you would think what Carlso was telling you all months ago he is on another planet

It saddens me to see AG considering doing this full time with a kid to feed, the JC has been and always will be a bet for the bookies

[WestIndiesWonder24]

You have your view and respect this but it probably have the same variables as a soccer game, the Value is there sometimes, just finding this and finding jockeys in which are proven to ride good horses home, bit of luck involved but the odds your getting are better than flip of the coin like betting on soccer matches.

[Davey Carlson]

WIW - Over a long period of time seriously are you infront or behind on JC bets??

It appears to me unless you back soley H Bowman and maybe a few of the gun up and coming apprentices at the provincial tracks you would down over a year on every other rider (unless you got a lucky big priced result).

On my soccer I pick my teams closely and monitor them - I bet in leagues your average person has not heard of because year in year out there are very similar trends.

There is a reason every bookie in the country is trying to get their slice of some JC money.........

[Mop Up]

Interesting you say they all want a slice when Sportingbet didn't have a single JC
market up today

[Oaksnaf]

Just doing a bit of googling for jockey stats and it seems pretty informative for what you are looking for. Whether it is completely accurate or not.... have to find another source to cross the information with:

http://www.virtualformguide.com/jockeys.shtml

I'll try and find some more informative Jockey stats.

[WestIndiesWonder24]

DC Probably would have a better Strike rate over JC than normal W/P betting.

Everyone to there own really though, in this thread a few of the guys are slowly working out ways in which this can be improved. A few betting methods can be improved in this betting, but study in regards to rides, horses at tracks, track bias etc are involved with this but inside tips and calculating points for rides, etc can be studied.

In a few instances luck, jockeys fall, accidents, getting good pick up rides is involved, but in working out early rides and inside information this can be improved before the market analysists pick this up and the right odds for VALUE snared, this can vastly be improved and beating the odds.

[WestIndiesWonder24]

Just doing a bit of googling for jockey stats and it seems pretty informative for what you are looking for. Whether it is completely accurate or not.... have to find another source to cross the information with:

http://www.virtualformguide.com/jockeys.shtml

I'll try and find some more informative Jockey stats.

Nice Link Oak some great statistics in here.

[Oaksnaf]

http://www.racenet.com.au has similar information as the link Dutchy posted in the opening post to the thread.

But the information on race-net is for past 12 months.

Perhaps if your serious about finding out specific information on jockey/trainer combinations etc at all sorts of tracks. Look at:

http://www.everyrace.com

But the way his information is set out, it seems like you'll spend more time interpreting the data and less time learning.

The virtual-form guide link seems the most 'realistic' website for that extra information you are after. Coupled with the link Dutchy supplied and you might be able to put a few more lines through some jockeys.

I haven't been able to find a website that logs the odds of the Jockey CHallenge or stats revolving around that. So you might have to record them yourself. Which shouldn't be too hard.

But you would need to do it everyday. Since there is a few of you guys doing it, shouldn't be to hard for all 7 days to get logged.

Get all the data, then either tinker with it yourself, or send it off to someone to write an easy program that spits out selections based on the stats.

[Davey Carlson]

WIW - Gl with finding the Value.

Your main problem on the JC is the horrible %'s the markets are, I ask you this - is there any large pro punters making a living off the tote, the answer is no because the 17% kills them over a long period of time. At least with win and place markets you can use betfair at 100% so their is no edge to the bookies. Most JC markets are at least 130% so theoretically when u bet u need to bet $130 to return $100 if you were to back every runner.

Value in these markets is very very hard to find and you guys are betting every meeting, I originally posted here to try and save you from yourselves - every1 laughed at my point of view and were convinced they could make money on this bet type. Nothing in this 400 post thread has proven that you can consistently make money (without getting mistakes).

Just have a think whether you like a Jockey because of 1 or 2 of their rides wouldn't it be better to back them individually instead of spreading your money across all rides including horses you think have no hope of finishing top 3.

A shoutout here is required for my old mate brod who it appears has finally seen that he is donating to the bookies with his JC bets well done mate

DC