Nelson + Dead Politician Walking

[Rushby Hinds]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/04/2108540.htm

Turnbull delivers poll blow to Nelson





Malcolm Turnbull gained a 34 per cent approval rating in the Newspoll. (File photo) (AAP: Mark Graham)

Video: Turnbull pips Nelson in popularity poll (ABC News) A new opinion poll shows new Federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson is not as popular as the man he defeated for the post, Malcolm Turnbull.

Mr Turnbull lost the Liberal leadership ballot by just three votes to Dr Nelson, but it seems Australians think the former environment minister was the best man for the job.

Today's Newspoll in The Australian newspaper shows 34 per cent of those surveyed think Mr Turnbull's most suited to lead the Liberal Party, with Dr Nelson on just 18 points.

Deputy leader Julie Bishop rated 14 per cent and Tony Abbott's decision to pull out of the leadership race has been vindicated, with him scoring just 9 per cent.

Dr Nelson has his work cut out for him over the next three years, with only 14 per cent of those surveyed thinking Dr Nelson would make the better prime minister than Kevin Rudd, who scored 61 per cent.

[rogernumber10]

Fill-in, just like Downer was a decade or so ago

[smac]

Has a new leader, fresh in to opposition from Government, ever made it to the next election?

He'd be lucky to get through 12 months, the Libs will be lucky to sit out for 2 terms.

[Dogwatcher]

Certainly is a fill in.
Nelson will either fall before the next election, or take them to an election loss.
Turnbull will then take over and provide a solid threat to Labor.
I think for Liberals it was fortunate Turnbull didn't win the leadership poll.
Because whoever took over was in a no-win situation, but Turnbull has the air of a winner and with a little more experience that's only going to grow.

[Rushby Hinds]

Newstopia last week


Commenting on Peter Costello not taking over the leadership of the Libs


"Is this the first ever recorded case of the opposition party breaking a pre election promise?"

[noone]

Turnbull will then take over and provide a solid threat to Labor.

This is basically the conventional view, however i'm starting to wonder if it is based on anything more than turnbull's aura.

His parliamentary performance as a minister was merely average, he was almost as foot in mouth as garrett during the campaign (abbott won all awards for that though). He is also far to moderate for the powerful right of the party (in NSW especially) who arn't going to give him an easy time.

Having just finished reading 'an education of a young liberal' (written by a former liberal factional hack) it puts the way he got preselection in a really bad light. Most preselections are a little dirty, however turnbulls takeover of wentworth was a stacking fiasco. 1/3 of liberal party members by the end of the preselection were in wentworth (NSW has 50 odd seats, thus wentworth should have 2% of liberal party members, not 33%. Tell me that's not going to come up in pre election dirt files.

I'm not saying he cant be a successful opposition leader, but he has some hurdles infront of him.

[mick]

It depends how the new government performs, if they're crap and there is a chance they be defeated at the next election, the real contenders will come out the woodwork, otherwise he might last until the next election then resign after that, either way he won't be the next Lib PM.

[redden whites]

Full marks everyone............ a very quick demise

[Gozu]

Could the Liberal Party be in any more trouble? Bishop gets canned and now Nelson deserts the sinking ship. Supposedly Joe Hockey isn't too far away either although the clown did just become their fourth Treasurer in less than 18 months so who knows.

[Psyber]

I imagine there is a bit more jockeying to go on yet. It happens when a party loses office.
Labor had to shuffle the pack a few times to find a winner too after Keating.

[Gozu]

Over a ten year period, bit of a difference. I always said they were going to crumble like a deck of cards when they would lose the election. Howard held that Party hostage and took them to the far-right to the point they almost went over the cliff. They're irrelevant, the public knows it and more importantly they know it.

We need a credible Opposition in this country because if this keeps up they will be in opposition for a generation. How long until the Greens become the default Opposition?

[Squawk]

reminds me of the Latham era.

Not sure why the federal opposition isn't credible. They could hardly be described as 'far right' and lets face it, the government covers everything from the extreme left to the centre right when it suits their political purposes.

[mick]

Over a ten year period, bit of a difference. I always said they were going to crumble like a deck of cards when they would lose the election. Howard held that Party hostage and took them to the far-right to the point they almost went over the cliff. They're irrelevant, the public knows it and more importantly they know it.

We need a credible Opposition in this country because if this keeps up they will be in opposition for a generation. How long until the Greens become the default Opposition?

The "greens" as opposition you really do live in la la land Have a look at their policies, riding a bicycle everywhere and vegetarianism doesn't appeal to me or most of the voters (Liberal or ALP). The greens are there for people who are pissed off with both major parties to support in order to massage their guilt complex. Sure the Liberal party is going through tough times, just as the ALP did for a decade. The Liberal Party will be there to clean up the mess that Labor always leaves behind, but in the meantime we'll be paying higher taxes to fund the latest gift by the government to the chinese electronics industry and the pokie barons.

[Psyber]

Over a ten year period, bit of a difference. I always said they were going to crumble like a deck of cards when they would lose the election. Howard held that Party hostage and took them to the far-right to the point they almost went over the cliff. They're irrelevant, the public knows it and more importantly they know it.

We need a credible Opposition in this country because if this keeps up they will be in opposition for a generation. How long until the Greens become the default Opposition?

I agree the Libs moved too far towards right wing [authoritarian] mode under Howard, as Labor did under Keating.
It is going to take a while to convince the electors they are not still there, and to establish leaders who can do so and be effective.

Squawk makes a valid point. I think Labor may have won the previous election if Latham had not been given the leadership and scared the voters.
I think the Greens in Australia are the right wing [authoritarian] socialist Luddites, and will never appeal to the majority of voters.

[As I've said elsewhere I'm a left wing [liberal] conservative, like Mal Fraser, and Gough Whitlam was a left wing [liberal] socialist.]

[Gozu]

reminds me of the Latham era.

Not sure why the federal opposition isn't credible. They could hardly be described as 'far right' and lets face it, the government covers everything from the extreme left to the centre right when it suits their political purposes.

Labor were no where near the rabble in the Latham era that the Libs are now, you know that. Turnbull is held captive by the far-right who still run the party. That's why he had to make himself look like a goose and oppose the stimulus plan despite all the evidence agreeing with it. They're being marginalised.

[Gozu]

The "greens" as opposition you really do live in la la land Have a look at their policies, riding a bicycle everywhere and vegetarianism doesn't appeal to me or most of the voters (Liberal or ALP). The greens are there for people who are pissed off with both major parties to support in order to massage their guilt complex. Sure the Liberal party is going through tough times, just as the ALP did for a decade. The Liberal Party will be there to clean up the mess that Labor always leaves behind, but in the meantime we'll be paying higher taxes to fund the latest gift by the government to the chinese electronics industry and the pokie barons.

Hey it's a long way off but if the Libs keep destroying themselves I'm sure they wont mind stepping into the breach. I dont have the numbers but environmental reasons was one of the major factors that saw the Howard government (finally) kicked out. Why do you think the government came up with the ETS? They know the people want it. Maybe not the far-right but the rational.

Clean up the mess? It was Keating that did the hard yards and had the economy going well when he was turfed out by the voters. The economy had been growing for something like four consecutive years and then Howard surfed in on the back of that and the mining boom. It's Labor now trying to clean up the mess that Howard left this country in. Run down schools, ordinary roads etc (thanks to hardly giving the States a cent because they were all Labor). Now Labor are cleaning up the mess left by the very people that Howard used to protect (big business, merchant bankers, economic vandals etc).

Speaking of higher taxes, you do realise the Howard government were the highest taxing government in Australia's history?

[Gozu]

I agree the Libs moved too far towards right wing [authoritarian] mode under Howard, as Labor did under Keating.
It is going to take a while to convince the electors they are not still there, and to establish leaders who can do so and be effective.

Squawk makes a valid point. I think Labor may have won the previous election if Latham had not been given the leadership and scared the voters.
I think the Greens in Australia are the right wing [authoritarian] socialist Luddites, and will never appeal to the majority of voters.

[As I've said elsewhere I'm a left wing [liberal] conservative, like Mal Fraser, and Gough Whitlam was a left wing [liberal] socialist.]

I agree in that no one is going to vote for a former merchant banker in Turnbull especially in this climate and Costello and his personality are electoral poison so they're out of the picture for awhile yet. I agree that Labor would've had that '04 election in the bag if Latham hadn't have scared the voters and to a lesser degree had the biased media in this country jump all over him. I have no doubt he would've been an effective PM but that handshake looked terrible.

The Greens are not right-wing anything. They're true left-wingers but according to some are hard-left and yes they clearly are starting to appeal to voters (Senate intake, environmental issues being a voting indicator).

[Psyber]

Gozu,
The modern use of "right wing" for conservative and "left wing" for socialist is to some extent a corruption.
In English usage in the 19th century, right wing meant authoritarian, and left wing meant liberal in the sense of non-authoritarian, and this relates to the seating of those supporting traditional authority in France on the right, and those for liberation on the left, in revolutionary France. This led to "right" being seen as authoritarian and left as laissez faire or liberal.
[The various references in Wikipedia are somewhat contradictory of each other as one would expect.]

More recently the convention has tended to use right = conservative and left = socialist, yet it is possible to have authoritarian socialist organisation like Hitler's National Socialist Workers' Party, or Paul Keating's Labor, or a liberal socialist one like Labor under Gough Whitlam and a liberal conservative one like the Liberal Party under Malcolm Fraser, or an authoritarian Conservative one like under John Howard.

In the original sense the Greens are right wing - they are authoritarian - and about as potent as the Democrats were...
I kept putting the meaning in brackets in my post to make it clear I was using the original form of the terms..

PS: Remember Turnbull was originally a poor boy brought up by his sole parent father... not exactly equipped with a silver spoon.

[Gozu]

Yes, I know Turnbull had the misfortune of growing up in Vaucluse and Double Bay, in a rented flat no less!

[Psyber]

Yes, I know Turnbull had the misfortune of growing up in Vaucluse and Double Bay, in a rented flat no less!

Was it Rose Bay Paul Keating's house was in? The one he extended without council consent and kept his French clock collection in...
Someone always rents the older flats in Toorak in Melbourne, and similar areas in Adelaide. The location doesn't always mean they are swish.
My step-daughter had a tiny old flat in Armadale in Melbourne, for convenience, instead of a larger, newer, one further out.
One of my Aunts had an attached cottage in Leichhardt in Sydney that was worth $2 mill when she died, but she'd lived there since the 1940s when it was a slum.