DOOMERS V OTHERS and again and again and again

[mal]

One again the Telstra Doom residents have capitulated in the finals
In recent years we have seen these fade outs by the KA/WB/SK teams in the finals.


2008 results week 1 finals

..OTHERS 52-44
DOOMERS 30-32

SS 17-8
KA 11-9

HW 18-19
WB 11-10

GE 17-17
SK 8-13

144 POINTS in defeats

It maybe argued that GE is a superior team and we can expect them to trounce any team.
But WB beat HW
And KA drew with SS
in thier games this season

Playing mainly indoors on hard fast decks with no breeze and no rain to worry about is different to the real world.
And of course that questionable surface ....

WB 1953 OR 1954 ?
SK 1966
Been a long time since a flag and the 2 biggest underachievers in VFL history are burdened not only with thier own curse but also the curse of the DOOM

[RoosterMarty]

Hawthorn are a better team than the Bulldogs who have faded badly.

Kangas got smashed by Port and then played Sydney away, that's never easy.

Geelong are easily the best side in the comp.

The whole Doom thing is overplayed by a few people on here.

[Dutchy]

The whole Doom thing is overplayed by a few people on here.

Stats and $$$ dont lie RM....

[Interceptor]

The whole Doom thing is overplayed by a few people on here.

Stats and $$$ dont lie RM....

I said at the start of the season I don't believe in it and I'll say that again.
Stats can always be intrepreted in numerous ways and if you want to see that your pet theory is working, then you'll see it.

I would go form, matchups, ins/outs, milestones, rest days and weather conditions (not necessarily in that order) before considering the ground they've been playing on.

The only thing that I say about the Dome is that it has the potential to insulate teams from harsher conditions (wind, dampness).
The actual playing surface looks to be way better than it used to be (they ditched the original turf contractor).

I'm open to be proven wrong, but when you combine other tipping factors, I don't think the Doom idea holds up.

[Dutchy]

As I said Stats dont lie, during the months of June, July and August the past 2 seasons (I havent tracked it prior) 16 of the 17 teams have lost (at the spread) in the 3rd week if they played their previous 2 games on the DOOM....

at the spread for those that dont know is the bookies even money line for betting on a contest (e.g. Saints had a 36.5 point start at the bookies line today and still lost)

So 16 out of 17 even money contests have gone in favour of the DOOM theory.....now go toss a coin and see if you can get it to come up tails 16 of the 17 spins....

Stats dont lie....

BTW where did the Saints play their previous 2 games before today?

[Adelaide Hawk]

Hawthorn are a better team than the Bulldogs who have faded badly.

Kangas got smashed by Port and then played Sydney away, that's never easy.

Geelong are easily the best side in the comp.

The whole Doom thing is overplayed by a few people on here.

Exactly right. All three matches went the way of the hot favourite. Everyone goes on about choking, etc, but sometimes a match is decided simply because one team is superior to the other on the day.

[Q.]

I think there is merit in your system Dutchy, but I'm going to call you up on your figures.

How did you get 16 from 17?

Round 22 WB lost to Adelaide at the spread

Round 21 Brisbane lost to Carlton at the spread

[Interceptor]

As I said Stats dont lie, during the months of June, July and August the past 2 seasons (I havent tracked it prior) 16 of the 17 teams have lost (at the spread) in the 3rd week if they played their previous 2 games on the DOOM....

at the spread for those that dont know is the bookies even money line for betting on a contest (e.g. Saints had a 36.5 point start at the bookies line today and still lost)

So 16 out of 17 even money contests have gone in favour of the DOOM theory.....now go toss a coin and see if you can get it to come up tails 16 of the 17 spins....

Stats dont lie....

BTW where did the Saints play their previous 2 games before today?

Okay, that seems like a pretty impressive track record -I wasn't aware the system was based on the spread, but I'll take that on board.

So how are the bookies doing with the spread betting in all other matches?
Do the chosen 'Doom' matches represent a genuine deficiency in their assessments or are you just as likely to beat the spread in picking random matches?
I guess you would say 'no' or 'why bother?' (based on results), but the stats on that would be interesting.

[mal]

INTERCEPTOR
Irrespective or what if and how when etc
DUTCHY had the gumption to create a spread system based on the DOOM.
He has seen that teams who play on the DOOM on a 3rd plus consective outing have performed below thier percieved best
Quite simply Dutchy says the DOOM surface affects the fitness of teams if played 3+ weeks in a row
He has backed against the teams playing 3+ games in a row at the DOOM.

His system has held up for 2 years
I have also punted on the DUTCHYDOOM system for 4 years now
I have made good $$$ on it as well

[Dutchy]

I think there is merit in your system Dutchy, but I'm going to call you up on your figures.

How did you get 16 from 17?

Round 22 WB lost to Adelaide at the spread

Round 21 Brisbane lost to Carlton at the spread

yep I did the stats after Rnd 19, sorry I should have clarified that....it seems late Aug/Sept the system struggles as the one loss last year was late Aug also...if you include the above and the 2 Saints games the record is 18 from 21...still tough to get a coin flip result that consistent I would think

In rounds 1-7 in both years the system has just broken even but it really ramps up June onwards when teams start to fatige and the DOOM gets them, Brett Burton even said this year that players were still concerned with the surface and how hard it is and the extra rehab they need after a DOOM game

[GWW]

I immediately thought of this thread when i saw this topic being discussed on the news tonight

I loved how Demetriou denied everything just like he does with tanking

http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/deme ... -vbhr.html

[Dutchy]