2008 SAFooty Gambling Room AFL/SANFL Punting Competition

[Dutchy]

Welcome to the 2008 Punting Competition, after last years success with over 20 participants for the whole season we look to build on this with a bigger and better competition for this year...

Prizes -
1st Prize: $100- Free Bet donated by http://www.sportsbet.com.au
2nd Prize: $75- Voucher from Brad at http://www.team-bundy.com
3rd Prize: Carton of beer from Brad at http://www.team-bundy.com

Many thanks to our sponsors -



Rules
Some small changes from last year. This year you will still have 3 units per week to bet with however you can use them over 3 bets, not 2. You can use them all in 1 bet of 3 Units or seperate them into 2 or 3 bets as long as you dont invest more than 3 units overall. Note no half units.

Prices
To be obtained from http://www.sportsbet.com.au only. Can include SANFL and/or AFL. And the following forms of betting are allowed-

Money Line - To Win
Spread/Line - Points
Margin - 1-39 and 40+ only no other margins will be accepted
No Draws are allowed

Tips for round are to be rec'd by 12 noon on Saturdays.

- 2 "NO BET" rounds are available - this could work against for or you though, will look to possibly phase this out for next year
- http://www.sportsbet.com.au only and odds posted MUST be available at time of posting

No need to enter at all, just start by posting your selections starting this week in the seperate thread I will commence shortly.

Any questions post here....

[mighty_tiger_79]

no draws!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats a bit rough

especially considering you picked a draw 6 months in advance with the doggies and faint kilda,

[Dutchy]

Will never happen again!

For info heres the table from 2007 -

FINAL LEADERBOARD
Ecky +16.25
WCP +15.3
Dutchy +8.31
Pseudo +1.77
JJ +1.57
Brod +0.88
CP -3.4
RW&Bblooded -3.84
TWE -4.02
Aerie -4.25
Eags -4.25
Sheik -6.06
Wedgie -7.47
SCD -8.23
PAFC1870 -8.95
Thiele -10.52
The Mole -14.19
Mal -19.61
MT79 -20.25
Lion Heart -28.75
PP -40.44

[Ecky]

A few questions:
what is the penalty for not placing a bet?
are "no bet" rounds allowed (if you indicate so beforehand)?
So are Thornton's odds not allowed this year?
I really think there should also be a maximum odds of something like $10. The comp could get killed off very quickly if someone gets lucky on an outsider early on. Similarly, in the last couple rounds last year, everyone was placing ridiculous bets as that was their only chance of winning. If one of them got up, it would have been a fairly hollow victory, as very little skill would have been involved.

[westcoastpanther]

Dutchy, can you please delete that leader board......

[mighty_tiger_79]

any price a winner!!!!!!!

$1.01
or
$20+

with the leader board from last year we all know who we can cheat off!!!!

[Dutchy]

A few questions:
what is the penalty for not placing a bet?
are "no bet" rounds allowed (if you indicate so beforehand)?
So are Thornton's odds not allowed this year?
I really think there should also be a maximum odds of something like $10. The comp could get killed off very quickly if someone gets lucky on an outsider early on. Similarly, in the last couple rounds last year, everyone was placing ridiculous bets as that was their only chance of winning. If one of them got up, it would have been a fairly hollow victory, as very little skill would have been involved.

You will lose 3 units if you dont post by 12 noon Saturday, Ill allow 3 "no bet" rounds for each puinter, but again you muct declare this before 12 noon Saturdays otherwise you lose 3 units....as far as Im aware Thornton wont be punting on SANFL, if he does Ill include them.....Im open to feedback on your last point, but even if someone hits 3 units at $10- they still have to defend the lead for 23 weeks which might be tough....by only accepting 1-39 and 40+ margins this should reduce the amount of high odds bet options available...

[Punk Rooster]

Imo-

if you don't bet your 3 units, you lose them
you have to bet 3 units every week
prices to be sourced from sponsor (Sportsbet) only
any price a winner
no multi/all-up bets

[JK]

Agree with Punk ... I'd force a bet from everyone, every week ... Should make it more interesting than a clear cut leader just "passing" on his/her bets for the last 3 weeks.

Should someone be going away or whatever, they would still be able to pick a future bet option and we can tidy up the odd's etc for them.

[eags]

Just a suggestion, but perhaps if no bet received then they could get 3 units for the win on the home side for Saturday night's AFL game? Kind of like getting away tips for not entering your tips in a tipping comp.

[Ecky]

I see this competition as a great way to educate people on sensible gambling as it reinforces important principles such as
sticking to a budget
keeping records of your wins and losses.

Another very important rule for punters is that if you can't see any value, then you should not bet!

I really don't want to be forced into making a bet one week just because my odds happen to agree with what the bookies are offering. It isn't just a tipping comp.

[Punk Rooster]

Just a suggestion, but perhaps if no bet received then they could get 3 units for the win on the home side for Saturday night's AFL game? Kind of like getting away tips for not entering your tips in a tipping comp.

I disagree- if you don't place your bets, you lose.
This will encourage people to keep up to date with placing selections

[SCD]

Start off by saying Thanks for setting this up Dutchy..

I actually Agree with Punk on all of the above.
tipping should be every week + prices only on sportsbet, they cover AFL + SANFL - what more do you need?

[Ecky]

Also on the $10 limit thing, consider the following...

Mug punter enters the competition and loses all his bets in the first 2 weeks so is $6 down. He then loses interest and is about to give up, but then sees that some hopeless team (eg South) are playing away at some top team (eg Centrals) the next week and there are odds of $34 for them to win by 40+. (quite possible)

So he puts $3 units on South 40+ as a departing gift, never expecting the bet to get up. But to everyone's surprise they happen to cause the upset of the season, and he finds himself way out in front of the competition on +$93 and almost guaranteed to win.

Now, the only way that anyone else can win is by also backing longshots like that, so everyone starts backing the longest odds they can find each week (I know that's what I would do!), and the competition descends into a pure lottery and a complete farce...

Why risk the chance of this happening, when all you need to do is put a basic rule in place from the start, that won't affect most people anyway???

[Ecky]

tipping should be every week + prices only on sportsbet, they cover AFL + SANFL - what more do you need?

But going back to my "education" point, another important rule for punters is to shop around, and not just accept the prices from the first bookie you see.

[JK]

tipping should be every week + prices only on sportsbet, they cover AFL + SANFL - what more do you need?

But going back to my "education" point, another important rule for punters is to shop around, and not just accept the prices from the first bookie you see.

Umm ... It's just a friendly competition isn't it?

I take your point about someone jagging a big collect on a roughy, but that's the nature of punting isn't it, the whole risk-reward ratio?

I thought last years worked pretty well, and the mooted changes this year appear minimal enough to keep it pretty close to how it worked previously, but I'm happy to play regardless of which rules are put in place, so I'll leave it up to you guys.

[Punk Rooster]

Also on the $10 limit thing, consider the following...

Mug punter enters the competition and loses all his bets in the first 2 weeks so is $6 down. He then loses interest and is about to give up, but then sees that some hopeless team (eg South) are playing away at some top team (eg Centrals) the next week and there are odds of $34 for them to win by 40+. (quite possible)

So he puts $3 units on South 40+ as a departing gift, never expecting the bet to get up. But to everyone's surprise they happen to cause the upset of the season, and he finds himself way out in front of the competition on +$93 and almost guaranteed to win.

Now, the only way that anyone else can win is by also backing longshots like that, so everyone starts backing the longest odds they can find each week (I know that's what I would do!), and the competition descends into a pure lottery and a complete farce...

Why risk the chance of this happening, when all you need to do is put a basic rule in place from the start, that won't affect most people anyway???

rubbish Ecky-
if you're skillfull/assy enough to predict a $31 winning dividend, you deserve whatever spoils come your way (Drawn Coll v WCE final last year anyone? )

[Ecky]

But Punky - this isn't like normal gambling - prizes only go to 1st and 2nd, so the optimal strategy is different to the optimal strategy if you were simply punting your own money. It doesn't matter if you come 3rd or last or if you lose $5 or lose $1000, so it encourages more risk taking, which in my opinion defeats the purpose of the competition - to see which of us do the best at identifying good odds throughout the season.

To illustrate the point...if I created 20 aliases, and got them all to back various random, different long shots throughout the year without using any skill, I would almost guarantee you that one of them would win the competition. (even though most of them would lose a lot)

[Ecky]

PS I should add that I will go along with whatever the majority view is - I'm just putting a point of view forward.

[brod]

Think that the rules that you put forward Dutchy sound great and help me to post another profit hopefully a bit more the 0.88 units for a whole season..