The Hinkley Factor

[Rik E Boy]

TLDR. Hinkley is Blight era Geelong. Thankfully, he's brought that culture to a club that used to win things back then. Happy days.

regards,

REB

How he couldn't get that Cats side at least 1, yet got the Crows 2, will have me clueless until my last breath.

We played peak Hawthorn and West Coast with a shithouse bottom six. In 89, not ready, 92, the one that got away, 94, played out of our skins just to qualify and went in injured. Crows got St Kilda with no ruckman and Roos who kicked themselves out of it.

regards,

REB

[valleys07]

TLDR. Hinkley is Blight era Geelong. Thankfully, he's brought that culture to a club that used to win things back then. Happy days.

regards,

REB

How he couldn't get that Cats side at least 1, yet got the Crows 2, will have me clueless until my last breath.

We played peak Hawthorn and West Coast with a shithouse bottom six. In 89, not ready, 92, the one that got away, 94, played out of our skins just to qualify and went in injured. Crows got St Kilda with no ruckman and Roos who kicked themselves out of it.

regards,

REB

Correct. I'll excuse 1989 and 1994, but Geelong had enough tools to get the job done in 1992, I feel.

[MW]

TLDR. Hinkley is Blight era Geelong. Thankfully, he's brought that culture to a club that used to win things back then. Happy days.

regards,

REB

How he couldn't get that Cats side at least 1, yet got the Crows 2, will have me clueless until my last breath.

We played peak Hawthorn and West Coast with a shithouse bottom six. In 89, not ready, 92, the one that got away, 94, played out of our skins just to qualify and went in injured. Crows got St Kilda with no ruckman and Roos who kicked themselves out of it.

regards,

REB

Who were both raging favourites against us, but yeah go on

[wenchbarwer]

TLDR. Hinkley is Blight era Geelong. Thankfully, he's brought that culture to a club that used to win things back then. Happy days.

regards,

REB

How he couldn't get that Cats side at least 1, yet got the Crows 2, will have me clueless until my last breath.

We played peak Hawthorn and West Coast with a shithouse bottom six. In 89, not ready, 92, the one that got away, 94, played out of our skins just to qualify and went in injured. Crows got St Kilda with no ruckman and Roos who kicked themselves out of it.

regards,

REB

The disrespect shown to Brett Cook here is a disgrace!!!

[Rik E Boy]

TLDR. Hinkley is Blight era Geelong. Thankfully, he's brought that culture to a club that used to win things back then. Happy days.

regards,

REB

How he couldn't get that Cats side at least 1, yet got the Crows 2, will have me clueless until my last breath.

We played peak Hawthorn and West Coast with a shithouse bottom six. In 89, not ready, 92, the one that got away, 94, played out of our skins just to qualify and went in injured. Crows got St Kilda with no ruckman and Roos who kicked themselves out of it.

regards,

REB

Who were both raging favourites against us, but yeah go on

Would have killed to play St Kilda without a ruckman instead of a team playing in their seventh straight grand final or the WA state team, but yeah go on. A home final for finishing above the Crows in 97 would also have been handy.

regards,

REB

[Rik E Boy]

TLDR. Hinkley is Blight era Geelong. Thankfully, he's brought that culture to a club that used to win things back then. Happy days.

regards,

REB

How he couldn't get that Cats side at least 1, yet got the Crows 2, will have me clueless until my last breath.

We played peak Hawthorn and West Coast with a shithouse bottom six. In 89, not ready, 92, the one that got away, 94, played out of our skins just to qualify and went in injured. Crows got St Kilda with no ruckman and Roos who kicked themselves out of it.

regards,

REB

Correct. I'll excuse 1989 and 1994, but Geelong had enough tools to get the job done in 1992, I feel.

Matera thought otherwise. Not a big fan of Dusty and Matera for some reason.....

regards,

REB

[Vamos]

Nice post RB.

Confirms what we already knew.

Holy shit, RB actualy bought Playboy for the articles. Hinkley boner showing no signs of taming.

[RB]

Might be kicking in early this year.

[dedja]

Chasing Greatness … still

[marbles]

time to rebuild.

[Armchair expert]

New coach will have lots to work it, don't need a blow up the joint rebuild

Keep
Rozee
SPP
Houston
Burgoyne - buy him a gym membership
Sinn
Butters
Finlayson
Soldo
Bergman
Rioli
Wines
JHF
MG
Allir
Sweet
BZT
Esava
Drew
Lord
Visentini
LEans
Mead

Trade
Marshall
Farrell
DJB

Delist
Burton - What happened to this guy
Boak - He probably retires
McKenzie
Clurey
Dixon - Retired
Williams - Unlucky as he did alright last season
FEvans
Jones
McEntee
Narkle

Unsure
Charleson
Anastasopoulos
Scully
Lorenz
McCullum
Jackson
KMarshall
Walsh

[RB]

Updated figures:

Gold Coast +12.3
Fremantle +10.5
Port Adelaide +8.0
Collingwood +7.6
Melbourne +6.2
Carlton +5.1
Sydney +4.7
Essendon +2.2
Adelaide +1.8
Geelong +1.3
North -0.3
GWS -2.3
St. Kilda -3.1
WB -4.5
West Coast -6.1
Hawthorn -6.3
Brisbane -13.9
Richmond -14.6

[RB]

Final figures for the Hinkley era:

Collingwood +10.9
Gold Coast +10.8
Fremantle +9.9
Port Adelaide +8.6
Melbourne +5.8
Essendon +5.2
Carlton +4.9
Sydney +1.7
Adelaide +0.7
North +0.5
Geelong +0.0
GWS -3.0
WB -4.1
St. Kilda -4.2
Hawthorn -5.4
West Coast -6.3
Brisbane -13.5
Richmond -15.0

[Trader]

Interestingly, of the 13 flags won between 2013 and 2025, only 2 came from a side with a positive Hinkley Factor over that period.

Coincidence, I think not.

* = flag won during the Hinkley Era.

* Collingwood +10.9
Gold Coast +10.8
Fremantle +9.9
Port Adelaide +8.6
* Melbourne +5.8
Essendon +5.2
Carlton +4.9
Sydney +1.7
Adelaide +0.7
North +0.5
* Geelong 0.0
GWS -3.0
* WB -4.1
St. Kilda -4.2
* * * Hawthorn -5.4
* West Coast -6.3
* * Brisbane -13.5
* * * Richmond -15.0

[Mr Beefy]

Interestingly, of the 13 flags won between 2013 and 2025, only 2 came from a side with a positive Hinkley Factor over that period.

Coincidence, I think not.

* = flag won during the Hinkley Era.

* Collingwood +10.9
Gold Coast +10.8
Fremantle +9.9
Port Adelaide +8.6
* Melbourne +5.8
Essendon +5.2
Carlton +4.9
Sydney +1.7
Adelaide +0.7
North +0.5
* Geelong 0.0
GWS -3.0
* WB -4.1
St. Kilda -4.2
* * * Hawthorn -5.4
* West Coast -6.3
* * Brisbane -13.5
* * * Richmond -15.0

Of course it isnt a coincidence, they play more games and win those games and win the GF

[RB]

Playing more games late in the season won't affect your Hinkley Factor (as it's percentage-based). Teams playing fewer games will have greater variance but it works both ways so cancels out.

Remember that the Hinkley Factor is a relative measure - i.e. how well does a team perform post-June, as compared with their early season performance, so winning premierships should not necessarily lower your Hinkley Factor.

The correlation appears to be that premiership winners tend to improve throughout the season, which isn't a coincidence, but isn't logically necessary either.

[Booney]

Port have been poor in finals under Hinkley.

Much less typing.

[RB]

Port have been poor in finals and July and August under Hinkley.

Much less typing.

EFA

[Mr Beefy]

Playing more games late in the season won't affect your Hinkley Factor (as it's percentage-based). Teams playing fewer games will have greater variance but it works both ways so cancels out.

Remember that the Hinkley Factor is a relative measure - i.e. how well does a team perform post-June, as compared with their early season performance, so winning premierships should not necessarily lower your Hinkley Factor.

The correlation appears to be that premiership winners tend to improve throughout the season, which isn't a coincidence, but isn't logically necessary either.

Bullshit, when you win those games

[RB]

I'm not quite sure that you understand the calculation.

The Hinkley Factor is determined by calculating a team’s win percentage for the period up to and including 30 June, and subtracting from that, the team’s win percentage for the period from 1 July onwards.

Each figure could be as high as 100% or as low as 0%.

E.g. a team could go 5-10 until the end of June, and then 6-2 for the rest of the year for a HF of -42. Another team could go 10-5 until the end of June, then 9-2 for the rest of the year, winning the flag, and end up with a HF of only -15.

The HF is based on win percentages, not raw wins. Premiership teams all end up with 3 additional wins (and 0 or 1 extra losses) thrown into their data after the minor round, but that doesn't really make it any easier for them to get to a 100% win rate - as they have more opportunities to lose.

All that the HF compares, is a team's win rate post-EOFY v pre-EOFY.