Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[carey]

Brave Smash just got held up for to long

[mighty_tiger_79]

LPH, I think you have proven yourself over the journey of multitude carnivals, so your credibility is fine.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Grunt - now if this can get a shot at them today, it can be winning. its now to a price where it is backable, but it is a tough race where there are 7 genuine hopes.

Flemington r6 - I think 1,2

r8 - 2,12

r9 - 10

[JK]

Brave Smash just got held up for to long

Ball of Muscle didn’t

What a gutsy win by Brutal, headed in the straight and dug deep to kick back

[carey]

Brave Smash just got held up for to long

Ball of Muscle didn’t

What a gutsy win by Brutal, headed in the straight and dug deep to kick back

Certainly did, looked beaten for all money.

[JK]

Grunt you beauty!!!

[mighty_tiger_79]

Jockey change on Grunt proved the difference there

[Brodlach]

Grunt you beauty!!!

Big run!

Got a beautiful ride by Oli

[jackpot jim]

Anyone know why the fixed odds on S/Tab and UBet are all Identical today as if 1 bookie is doing both? Never seen this before.
Or am i imagining things ?

[mighty_tiger_79]

Anyone know why the fixed odds on S/Tab and UBet are all Identical today as if 1 bookie is doing both? Never seen this before.
Or am i imagining things ?

The merge hasnt started yet has it?

[carey]

Anyone know why the fixed odds on S/Tab and UBet are all Identical today as if 1 bookie is doing both? Never seen this before.
Or am i imagining things ?

Noticed exactly the same thing.

I’ve been stuck at the outlaws today just been sitting here playing around with $5-$10 bets actually had a fairly good day. On the back of 3 multi collects last night.

Loved Winx again, i got the whole family to sit and watch her tried to explain the magnitude of this great horse but I was wasting my breath. I actually thought she was done top of the straight. Idiot, how wrong I was.

[LPH]

Oh Dear...
After Week 1 Down 60.4 Units
Both Trifectas had 1st, 2nd, 4th...

[Lightning McQueen]

Anyone know why the fixed odds on S/Tab and UBet are all Identical today as if 1 bookie is doing both? Never seen this before.
Or am i imagining things ?

Noticed exactly the same thing.

I’ve been stuck at the outlaws today just been sitting here playing around with $5-$10 bets actually had a fairly good day. On the back of 3 multi collects last night.

Loved Winx again, i got the whole family to sit and watch her tried to explain the magnitude of this great horse but I was wasting my breath. I actually thought she was done top of the straight. Idiot, how wrong I was.

We do $6 tri's using the fave as the rover and picking two each for 16%, been doing really well with it.

[Lightning McQueen]

Oh Dear...
After Week 1 Down 60.4 Units
Both Trifectas had 1st, 2nd, 4th...

It was a day for it, that's how my tri's went all day except for Grunt, I managed that one for the punters club.

Failed the punters club but went home with a gut full of beer and $5 less than I went there with.

Repeated the procedure yesterday for 10 pints, and came home with $30 more than I went there with.

[mighty_tiger_79]

.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[DOC]

Do you have to drink 27 straight?

[Brodlach]

Do you have to drink 27 straight?

Nope, after the first few you can lean to one side

[daysofourlives]

Do you have to drink 27 straight?

Nope, after the first few you can lean to one side

Thats not bad from you

[LPH]

22/09/2018 (Posted 7:45pm Thursday)

OMG… an absolute ‘Barry Crocker’ last week, proving once again, that as a Tipster I can get it horribly wrong at times. Seriously considered a ‘Roman Bath’ last Saturday night!

It is days like that, that seriously dent a Punter’s confidence & make him question whether or not it is wise to continue to pursue this past time! But, as always, there are more races this Saturday to peruse… And so it is to Caulfield & Rosehill that I venture this week – somewhat ‘gun shy’ it has to be said!

I’m thinking it could be a very successful day for Godolphin, particularly in Melbourne, but at both venues. The big fields have me concerned at Caulfield & the small fields in Sydney have ruined any decent win/place value priced runners – for these reasons I’ve only focussed on the 3 main races of the Day.

Caulfield Race 8 – Sir Rupert Clarke

Huge field to contest this very interesting race. Godolphin hold the keys to the race IMHO.

Osbourne Bulls ran really well fresh & his 2nd up record is superb. I think he’s likely to get a good ‘cart’ into the race & if Williams can get him in clear running, he’ll go very close to winning the race. $2.40 (Ubet) the Place is pretty good odds but we might get better on the day - $2.60 perhaps? The stable mate Home of the Brave is the likely leader in the race & should set a steady tempo up front.

I do like the Hawkes runner Showtime, at the value. Forgive his last run & go on the previous win here in the PJ Lawence Stakes, beating Hartnell. Gate 1 is a concern, in terms of being able to get clear passage around the turn, but recent history at Caulfield suggests the inside IS an advantage, so he’s worth a small gamble at $17 (Powered) & $4.40 the Place (Ubet)

Jungle Cat is a very interesting runner. Trainer has sent a number of horses out here early this year & we can take a lead from that, over the Spring. Godolphin are clearly VERY serious about winning our ‘Majors’ & dominating the Carnivals. 3 x Trainers (Cummings, Appleby & the ‘Shiek) will have an all-out assault over the next few months, & you can throw in Michael Freedman too!

Backing: Osbourne Bulls 16 Units the Place & Showtime 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13 for (35%)

Caulfield Race 7 – The Bendigo Bank Cup (The Naturalism Stakes)

I’m pretty sure the winner of this race gets an exemption from the ballot for the Caulfield Cup. That suggests that a number of contenders for that race would be keen to win this. As a result, I would say the winner will come from Nos 1, 3, 5, 10 & 13.

Folkswood is 1st up but don’t be put off by that – he won the Cranbourne Cup over 2000m last time in. He has to go into all multiples. As you know, I am a big fan of the Mare, Hiyaam. She’s been good to me, winning at nice prices, & she owes me nothing. That said, her last run was poor but she was wide & The Valley is not a place you want to be caught wide at.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the Weir runner, Yogi, is going to win a good quality race this Spring. This may not be it, but I certainly concede it a place chance, at least. His form is good, he’s 3rd up & he drops weight here. The gate is the concern on Saturday, but watch out for him in something like an Underwood in 2 weeks or even a Lexus @ Flemington on Derby Day, at a price.

I have settled on Our Venice Beach at $8.50 (Powered) & $2.90 (Ubet). Love backing Lloyd Williams’ runners in anything above 1800m because you just know they will be fit & they generally like to run in the front 5 or 6 runners, so they make their own luck. He’ll do me at the price, would love 2/1 the place on the day!

Backing: Our Venice Beach 2 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10 / 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 13, 18 / Field (6%) – 3 Units

Rosehill Race 7 – The Golden Rose

Danawi is the obvious leader in the race. If he goes ‘gang-busters’ up front, it will set up the finish for those back in the field, in; Graf, Seabrook, The Autumn Sun & Lean Mean Machine.

Seabrook won the Champagne in the Autumn (1600m), after running a creditable 5th in the Golden Slipper, here at Rosehill. There are only 3 horses (Danawi, Seabrook & The Autumn Sun) that have won over 1350m. Is that a significant statistic? I think it is.

Can the Filly beat the Colts? If this was in Melbourne, I would say no question, as the Melbourne crop of fillies are better than the colts. In Sydney? At the price, I’m going to back her to do it.

I can see Santos hitting the front with a Furlong to go in the race, & Seabrook coming hard with The Autumn Sun down the outside. Seabrook at $11 Powered & $3 the Place is the value in the race.

Backing: Seabrook 2 x 7 Units
Quinella: 2, 6, 11 for 3 Units (cost 9 Units)
Exacta: 2 / 11 for 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11 for (50%)

There you go Lads – hoping that I get a couple of collects THIS week, if for no other reason than to rebuild a bit of confidence for the weeks to come. Not to mention the Bank!
Enjoy the Day.
I’m attending the SANFL Grand Final on Sunday – 1st one for 5 years.
Looking forward to a big day on the piss with the Boy!
Come say Hello - look for the 'No 19' at the Cathedral End

[JK]

Had many of those shocking days (weeks, months), good on ya for backing up mate, it’ll turn. Always enjoy reading your insights