Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:06 pm

Clare currently on Conversations with Cornesy on AA
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:30 pm

Booney wrote:
Brodlach wrote:So a reasonable story but not huge


If the story was about her arse, however..... ;)


Thank You 'Twiggy'...
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:41 am

Chautauqua

Barrier trial this morning


Stayed in the gates

Barred from racing
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Booney » Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:56 am

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Chautauqua

Barrier trial this morning


Stayed in the gates

Barred from racing


Third time he's stood when the gates have opened up this prep.

Classic example of what people say to the animal rights activists, if they don't want to do it they won't!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:02 pm

Got to barrier trial twice in front of stewards before allowed to race again
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:39 pm

Planned to have a jumpout next friday at flemington and cos stewards will be present it will be classed as a trial
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:11 pm

Preview Posted 7:12pm Thursday 08/03/2018

Saturday 10/03/2018 & Monday 12/03/2018

Well here we are again, another Autumn Carnival.
Will be interesting to see if the pattern of the previous few years continues in Sydney with Wet/Heavy tracks throughout their Carnival. For Melbourne, we saw the Blue Diamond meeting 2 weeks ago result in an easy victory for the winner, Written By, & Booker had a shocker of a run 3 wide the trip to just miss the place in the Oakleigh Plate – I will be backing up this week.

Last week’s Flemington meeting resulted in number of favourites winning (which you would know by now, for me is not great) & the Great Mare won again. She’s the BEST this country has seen, I doubt anyone can argue with that now. I think she needs to go & beat the Europeans on their ‘turf’ @ Royal Ascot in Winter & perhaps come back for a 4th Cox Plate. Will she stay for ‘The Championships’? Time will tell.

So, to this week...
Headquarters gives us the ‘time honoured’ Newmarket Handicap plus the WFA Australian Cup – a below par field IMHO this year. For the 1st time in a long time, no Melbourne Cup Winner or Cox Plate winner from the previous year, which is disappointing. TBH, the field looks 2nd rate this year, based on the Spring Form of many of these runners. Sydney’s main race of the Day is the Randwick Guineas & Monday is Cup Day here – another below standard field really & appropriately no longer a Group 1 race.

Flemington R6 – The Newmarket Handicap

Unlike the Australian Cup, this field is pretty solid. As I said, I’m backing up with Booker. She’s got no weight, which is a big advantage & her record at the distance is very good. She will get a far better run here than in her previous start & I’ve taken the ‘powered’ $12 & the $3.30 the place is very acceptable. Happy to back her 2 x 5 Units.

Am wary of a couple of others:
Catchy always runs well & she’s unbeaten 2nd up. You have to be impressed with Redkirk Warrior’s 1st up run & he won this race last year. That said, he rises 5 kgs on that win & I think $7 is as short as you’d want him. I love Merchant Navy in Melbourne, but he’s far too short for me to back him @ 4/1 the win but Evens the Place is a good bet IMHO – we could get 5/4 ($2.25) on the Day, I could entertain 10 Units the Place. Brave Smash’s win in The Futurity was impressive but I don’t like sprinters dropping back in distance at their next start, particularly up the straight 6 furlongs. If he wins, you can bet the Trainer will be in tears :D

Backing Booker 2 x 5 units & saving on Merchant Navy 8 units the Place.
Pick 4: 11, 14, 15 / 7, 11, 14, 15 / Field / Field (2%)

Flemington R7 – The Australian Cup

As I said, this field is 2nd Rate IMHO. Yes, Almandin is a Melbourne Cup winner, but he’s now an 8 yr old. Is he the same horse that won the 2016 Cup? The jury’s out, I think. I like the Taj Mahal as a horse & backed him last year 2nd up when 4th, just beaten into a place in the McKinnon. He could well have a good Autumn & I can see him being very competitive in a Ranvet @ WFA at Rosehill over 2400m, but he’s too short at 6/1 1st up in this race. I can entertain backing Hartnell, particularly @ the current $2.60 on offer the Place. The boosted $10 the win is the best price he’s been for a long time. Taking him 1 x 4 Units.

The interesting runner is Weir’s Japanese horse Ambious, can’t back him but still interested to see how he goes.
Homesman’s run 1st up was impressive & he will be improved by that run, so happy to put him in the multiples.

Backing Hartnell 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10 (40%)

Randwick R7 – The Randwick Guineas

This race over the Mile has many runners on an ATC Derby trail, one would think.
Kementari has clearly come back in great form & is the one to beat here. It ‘Maps’ well from the draw & gets the gun run from the gate. I can’t back it at the short quote, but concede it’s the one to beat.

I think the distance might tell on Trapeze Artist & think he’ll be feeling it with 100m to go. His racing pattern suggests that he’ll need it ‘quiet’ up front to hang on over the final furlong & I don’t think that will happen because Gai’s runner will set a strong ‘clip’, I think. That runner, (No. 11) Siege of Quebec, is well over the odds & if Reith gets an easy run in front, at a good tempo, I can see him being right in the finish. For that reason alone, I’m prepared to have a small wager the Place on it, not to mention the 'Randwick Mile' & Gai's record in these races.

I want to back the Waller runner Kaonic (No. 12). 3rd Up, good gate & jockey, plus it drops 2 ½ kgs on its previous start.
Record at the distance is perfect & I think he’s been set for this race. 1 x 4 Units.

Backing Kaonic 1 x 4 & Siege of Quebec 3 units the Place
Pick 4: 3, 5, 11, 12/ 3, 5, 11, 12/ Field / Field (2%)

Randwick R6 – Canterbury Stakes
Don’t like the race. Field is too small & the prices too compressed - $5 the Field.

Randwick R4 – The Todman Stakes

There’s one here I’m keen to follow, despite its poor showing in the Blue Diamond 2 weeks ago in Melbourne, Plague Stone.

Gate 14 is a worry but McEvoy in the seat may well compensate for that. He’s going to need to use all his powers to get this bloke into a decent spot, but if he can, the Powered $21 is very appealing. The fact that Cummings has scratched the other Godolphin runner, suggests a small wager might be prudent. He has won a trial this way of going & ran 2nd in a 5 ½ furlong race this way too. The Top 2 are the ‘shorties’ in the race but I am prepared to gamble on this one, 1 x 3 Units.

Backing Plague Stone 1 x 3 units

Monday 12/03/2018 ... Morphettville R7 – Adelaide Cup

Seriously, this is a weak field of ‘stayers’ – it’s just a race. Group 2 is its appropriate level IMHO.

Interestingly, most of the Victorian visitors have been meeting each other in the same races over the past months.

As with all 2 Mile races, weights & luck in running will play no small part in the final result. Weir & Hayes have 3 runners each (of 18), Robbie Laing has 2.
It would be great to see Leon McDonald win it or Clare Lindop win it in her last race day – personally, can’t see either winning but concede Place chances to both.

As always, I’m looking for Value in the race, & the one I’ve settled on is the one I know will run the distance – the Hayes runner No. 10, Al Haram.
From the gate, I can see Dee taking him to the back of the field.
He’s going to need luck coming around the turn from the 800m to the 400m, but he will be running on. If he can get clear running in the straight, he might just run them down. The massive price is nice & in such a ‘crap shoot’ of a race, I’m looking to collect on the Place dividend. If he wins, bonus!

Backing Al Haram 1 x 5 Units.
Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 16 (30%)

There you go, Lads. Looking forward to a great Autumn. Let’s hope the weather stays fine.
Until next week … Happy Punting! :D
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby DOC » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:00 pm

LPH

When you say 1 x 3 units does this mean 1 to win and 3 to place.

Is a unit a dollar or some multiple, say ten dollars?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:02 pm

DOC wrote:LPH

When you say 1 x 3 units does this mean 1 to win and 3 to place.

Is a unit a dollar or some multiple, say ten dollars?


Correct ... a UNIT is whatever you want it to be, depending on your Bank.
We all bet differently - my Units will probably differ from yours.
I'm not Kerry Packer by any means. My Units are $15.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby DOC » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:41 pm

Thanks and good punting
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:43 pm

Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:12 pm

LPH wrote:Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(

The horses dont know anything about the form they are supposed to run too.
You were travelling very well through the Spring Carnival. Its a small hiccup in what is a long journey!
You will bounce back next week....im betting on it
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:41 am

LPH wrote:Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(

If Dee rode it like Walker rode Fanatic, who knows. Why he chose to go out the front baffled me.
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:47 am

OnSong wrote:
LPH wrote:Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(

If Dee rode it like Walker rode Fanatic, who knows. Why he chose to go out the front baffled me.

The first thing I thought. Surely they weren’t the tactics?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:29 am

I know there's no post bet bragging....but :

Newmarket - boxed 1,2,6,11 for 50% - 1,2,11 pays $216

Adelaide yesterday all up $5 - Fantatic $3.80 win > Riziz $12.50 place > Tatoosh $2.10 place :lol: ( First all up I've got in months! )
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby daysofourlives » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:19 am

Booney wrote:I know there's no post bet bragging....but :

Newmarket - boxed 1,2,6,11 for 50% - 1,2,11 pays $216

Adelaide yesterday all up $5 - Fantatic $3.80 win > Riziz $12.50 place > Tatoosh $2.10 place :lol: ( First all up I've got in months! )


You sure youre not from the sportsbet marketing department? :D

see the 10 leg multi $150 on it to win 114k from the weekend, they must think the public are stupid and theyre probably right haha
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:39 am

daysofourlives wrote:
Booney wrote:I know there's no post bet bragging....but :

Newmarket - boxed 1,2,6,11 for 50% - 1,2,11 pays $216

Adelaide yesterday all up $5 - Fantatic $3.80 win > Riziz $12.50 place > Tatoosh $2.10 place :lol: ( First all up I've got in months! )


You sure youre not from the sportsbet marketing department? :D

see the 10 leg multi $150 on it to win 114k from the weekend, they must think the public are stupid and theyre probably right haha


Ha! Yeah, they throw them out every now and then for someone to get sucked into and have a crack at.

Old Riziz, my cousin has shares in him and the old boy doesn't owe me any money at all. Classic provincial runner that comes 2nd in Port Augusta as the $3.50 favorite then comes to town and places at $12.00. ;) :lol:

Was pretty keen on Tatoosh and should have had that at around $4 the win in the all up, oh well, any price a winner!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:05 pm

Spargo wrote:
OnSong wrote:
LPH wrote:Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(

If Dee rode it like Walker rode Fanatic, who knows. Why he chose to go out the front baffled me.

The first thing I thought. Surely they weren’t the tactics?

Racing.com posted losing jockey thoughts and he really didn't have much to say other than the horse wanted to go.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:42 pm

Booney wrote:
daysofourlives wrote:
Booney wrote:I know there's no post bet bragging....but :

Newmarket - boxed 1,2,6,11 for 50% - 1,2,11 pays $216

Adelaide yesterday all up $5 - Fantatic $3.80 win > Riziz $12.50 place > Tatoosh $2.10 place :lol: ( First all up I've got in months! )


You sure youre not from the sportsbet marketing department? :D

see the 10 leg multi $150 on it to win 114k from the weekend, they must think the public are stupid and theyre probably right haha


Ha! Yeah, they throw them out every now and then for someone to get sucked into and have a crack at.

Old Riziz, my cousin has shares in him and the old boy doesn't owe me any money at all. Classic provincial runner that comes 2nd in Port Augusta as the $3.50 favorite then comes to town and places at $12.00. ;) :lol:

Was pretty keen on Tatoosh and should have had that at around $4 the win in the all up, oh well, any price a winner!


More beer money
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:57 pm

OnSong wrote:
Spargo wrote:
OnSong wrote:
LPH wrote:Its offical... I know ZERO about the Horses!!! :(

If Dee rode it like Walker rode Fanatic, who knows. Why he chose to go out the front baffled me.

The first thing I thought. Surely they weren’t the tactics?

Racing.com posted losing jockey thoughts and he really didn't have much to say other than the horse wanted to go.

What a cop out. He had it stuck out on a limb 3-4 wide for the first 1000m and made no attempt to slot it in & settle it in running.
If I was an owner I’d have rung his neck.
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