Tour de France

[Ecky]

Has anyone else been following/ betting on the Tour de France? Each year I follow it very closely (I love the tactics), and have started putting a few bets on it this year, now that I have an account with Sportsbet.

Before the first mountain stage, I had $1 on Rasmussen to win at $34, he is now the $1.65 favourite!
At that same day I had $2 each way on Rasmussen to win stage 8 at $4.75 (he won!)
Last night I had $2 on Contador to win last night's stage at $6 (he won!) and I also put $2 on Kloden to win the tour at $6.

So my betting is going extremely well so far, so I thought I'd share my thoughts on the rest of the race.
Sportsbet don't have their odds up yet today, but the market for overall winner according to Centrebet is

$1.65 Rasmussen (too short I think - if he doesn't gain any more time over the next two mountain stages, Evans/Kloden can easily make up the deficit on the last time trial)
$2.65 Contador (star of the future, but doesn't seem to be focussed on winning overall this year - eg. in the final few kms last night he was prepared to just sit on Rasmussen's shoulder and get the stage win, rather than attack Rasmussen to try to win back time from him)
$9.00 Evans (only had one bad day so far, can still win if he makes no more mistakes)
$10.00 Kloden (finally his team will be solely riding for him with Vinokourov finally out of the running, so that will help him through the next two mountain stages. Obviously not as strong a climber as the others, but should win the final time trial, but will he win it by enough?)

So I reckon that Evans and Kloden are some value in that market. My bets:
$1 on Evans
$1 on Kloden

Tonight's stage: Another tough mountain stage in the Pyranees.

Soler looks very good value at $7. With Rasmussen and Contador more worried about each other and the overall classifications, and with both now having an individual stage win, there isn't much incentive for them to chase down Soler if he attacks on the final climb. Soler can sniff the polka-dot jersey too, so he has every reason to be on the attack all day.

[Dutchy]

this portfolio is all yours Ecky...i have NFI....good going though and keep us updated

[mal]

I could not contemplate having a bet in a bike race [a boat race yes]
BUT will follow ECKY as he is a genuis
This event clashed with the EG V IN test match
I spent my time watching KP hit 37 + 134
But once again ECKYSRADAMUS has come up trumps

[Ecky]

Soler looks very good value at $7.

Well Soler has cracked and one of the breakaway riders is going to win today (Vino!?!). $2 down the drain for me.

[another grub]

great insight ecky.... keep us updated...... you talked scoob into taking the $7 on offer..... he lost more than $2 ..... WADH

[Dutchy]

great insight ecky.... keep us updated...... you talked scoob into taking the $7 on offer..... he lost more than $2 ..... WADH

Does Mrs Scoob know?

[Ecky]

great insight ecky.... keep us updated...... you talked scoob into taking the $7 on offer..... he lost more than $2 ..... WADH

Sorry Scoob!

Individual stage betting is always risky because of the random nature of breakaways. When the break (which included some decent climbers) got 8 minutes ahead of the field, there was no chance for anyone else to get the stage win. That is why the odds for the favourites often appear to be quite generous, but really there are many unknown factors that come into a stage of racing.

Interesting however that Astana didn't do anything to help Kloden last night, thus basically costing him of any chance of overall honours. Vino was out in front going for individual glory, rather than dropping back to help (like Menchov did for Rabobank for Rasmussen), and Kashechkin made a fairly pointless attack by himself on the second to last climb.

Anyway, Centrebet's odds for overall winner seem to be about right now:

RASMUSSEN, Michael (DEN) 1.50
CONTADOR, Alberto (ESP) 2.60
EVANS, Cadel (AUS) 21.00
KLÖDEN, Andreas (GER) 34.00
LEIPHEIMER, Levi (USA) 67.00

[scoob]

great insight ecky.... keep us updated...... you talked scoob into taking the $7 on offer..... he lost more than $2 ..... WADH

Does Mrs Scoob know?

Mrs Scoob thinks that the Chelsea EPL bet is my only 1 for the year!!! keep the rest pretty quiet!!!!

Keep up the good work Ecky... been following it each night... only problem is that I drift off with 20Kms to go pretty regularly... I got a packet on booden to wint the green jersey - got on after mckewin won first sprint and he shorten right up... was a god send him getting knocked out!!

[Dutchy]

Anyway, Centrebet's odds for overall winner seem to be about right now:

RASMUSSEN, Michael (DEN) 1.50 $1.72
CONTADOR, Alberto (ESP) 2.60 $2.92
EVANS, Cadel (AUS) 21.00 $24.00
KLÖDEN, Andreas (GER) 34.00 $50.00
LEIPHEIMER, Levi (USA) 67.00 $65.00

BF odds in bold above....another example of the great odds they provide

[another grub]

The sooner Sportsbet go bust the better.... JOKE

I am working on an invention with betfair at the moment dutchy....where you can bet from the track (or anywhere) on betfair.... eg. on a liitle hand held screen.... we are currently working on it.... should make me plenty and them ofcourse....
something a lot cheaper/mobile than items currently available.....

[mighty_tiger_79]

AG

that sounds like WARNIES new deal, punting over the mobile via text message!!!!!!!

[scoob]

The sooner Sportsbet go bust the better.... JOKE

I am working on an invention with betfair at the moment dutchy....where you can bet from the track (or anywhere) on betfair.... eg. on a liitle hand held screen.... we are currently working on it.... should make me plenty and them ofcourse....
something a lot cheaper/mobile than items currently available.....

So you have given up on your hoverboard like the ones off "Back To The Future"

[robber]

The sooner Sportsbet go bust the better.... JOKE

I am working on an invention with betfair at the moment dutchy....where you can bet from the track (or anywhere) on betfair.... eg. on a liitle hand held screen.... we are currently working on it.... should make me plenty and them ofcourse....
something a lot cheaper/mobile than items currently available.....

The fact you can do this on your mobile phone currently may halt sales of your invention.

[Ecky]

Well, it looks like I was one stage out with my late Mal on Soler!

He is in the breakaway today and would now be about even money to win the stage, after starting the day at $10.00.

(No, I didn't back him today )

[mal]

Well, it looks like I was one stage out with my late Mal on Soler!

He is in the breakaway today and would now be about even money to win the stage, after starting the day at $10.00.

(No, I didn't back him today )

WHEN HE IS ODDS ON THEN YOU HAVE PERMISSION TO MAKE HIM THE late mal

[Dutchy]

Well, it looks like I was one stage out with my late Mal on Soler!

He is in the breakaway today and would now be about even money to win the stage, after starting the day at $10.00.

(No, I didn't back him today )

Geez you can get $11- on BF "in play" for Soler, did he fall off or something?

[another grub]

It wouldnt be a mobile phone.... It would be a little touch screen with magnetics that was quick to submit info..... mobiles are a joke and too expensive..... this system is set to revoloutionise gambling across the world.

Scoob given up on the hoverboard.... go back to listening to Phil Collins CD's ya DH.....

[MAY-Z]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/ ... 88,00.html

hope some people took the odds on contador and evans as rassmussen has been kicked out

[Grahaml]

The breakaway was always doomed last night because Sastre was in it. He was only 6 mnutes behine Rasmussen so they were always going to stay close enough to chase it down. Solar did well to finish 5th actually.

[Ecky]

The sooner Sportsbet go bust the better.... JOKE

I am working on an invention with betfair at the moment dutchy....where you can bet from the track (or anywhere) on betfair.... eg. on a liitle hand held screen.... we are currently working on it.... should make me plenty and them ofcourse....
something a lot cheaper/mobile than items currently available.....

That sounds like a comment from about 10 years ago.
Internet on mobile phones is getting cheaper and easier day by day...
Sorry, but I can't see how anyone would pay money for something that you can get for free on reasonably priced mobile phone plans.