AFL 2014

[bennymacca]

Wonder if the standard deviation on winning margins increases or decreases during a season. If you work that out booney you may be into something . I would guess it wouldn't change that much but no idea really

[Booney]

Wonder if the standard deviation on winning margins increases or decreases during a season. If you work that out booney you may be into something . I would guess it wouldn't change that much but no idea really

[Dutchy]

Tab are offering $3 for there to be a draw for any game the rest of the year if ya interested in that.

Geez that is short

[Ecky]

According to some quick calculations I did from afltables.com:

Since the start of 2000 there have been 25 draws out of 2807 matches which is approx 1 in every 112 games, so odds of greater than 100/1 on average. So to think that $51 is a good price you need to be VERY confident that a particular game is MUCH more likely to be a draw than an average game.

Personally I doubt very much that the true odds are ever as low as $51, possibly for some games that are predicted to be very low scoring in wet conditions between evenly matched teams but these would be rare, and the bookies would probably shorten the draw odds for these kind of games anyway.

I think the only valid reason to bet on a $51 draw market would be if you are worried your account is going to be restricted and you want to convince a bookie that you are actually a mug punter with no idea.

[Booney]

According to some quick calculations I did from afltables.com:

Since the start of 2000 there have been 25 draws out of 2807 matches which is approx 1 in every 112 games, so odds of greater than 100/1 on average. So to think that $51 is a good price you need to be VERY confident that a particular game is MUCH more likely to be a draw than an average game.

Personally I doubt very much that the true odds are ever as low as $51, possibly for some games that are predicted to be very low scoring in wet conditions between evenly matched teams but these would be rare, and the bookies would probably shorten the draw odds for these kind of games anyway.

I think the only valid reason to bet on a $51 draw market would be if you are worried your account is going to be restricted and you want to convince a bookie that you are actually a mug punter with no idea.

I'll certainly add your glowing endorsement to my submission.

[bennymacca]

Ok, so the chances of no draw are 0.9912. Given we have 36 matches to go, that gives the probability of at least 1 draw to be

1 -(0.9912)^36 = 27.25%

This is odds of a draw of 3.66:1, so you are still taking unders with the 3:1


Also, the chances of at least 1 draw in a 198 game season is around 82.6%

[mighty_tiger_79]

I thought the odds were 2/1 not 3/1

[Johno6]

TAB are offering 3/1 for a draw any game I think that's what hes referring to?

[Hefty]

3 leg multi...

RICH 1-39/SYD 40+/COWS 1-39......$10 @ $23.46

[bennymacca]

TAB are offering 3/1 for a draw any game I think that's what hes referring to?

Yep

[Dutchy]

Not sure why this one is so low.

Essendon/Richmond Over 163.5
1 Unit @ $1.90

[Dutchy]

SANFL

Port Magpies -2.5
1.5 Units @ $1.90

South Adelaide +6.5
1.5 Units @ $1.90

Sturt/Adelaide/Norwood Win
1 Unit @ $2.34

[Dutchy]

Hawks -57.5
1 Unit @ $1.93

[Dutchy]

Port Adelaide Under 78.5 Points
2 Units @ $1.87

[Dutchy]

Brisbane +14.5
2 Units @ $2

Bullies/Saints Under 182.5
1 Unit @ $1.90

Collingwood +5.5
1 Unit @ $2

[valleys07]

WCE -5.5

$20 @ 1.91

[mighty_tiger_79]

Rd 21

cats $1.28 - looks an absolute gift, should be able run amok and get another win on the board

Sydney 40+ $1.33 v sainst at the SCG. how many for Buddy?

west coast $2.40 - possibly too much firepower for the bombers who have been disappointing recently

Richmond $2.65 and points +14.5 - I think look a good chance. I hate Richmond and fraudmantle as betting hopes, but surely this is a big chance for Richmond to get a result here at the odds. Crows off a 6 day break, in the warm Brisbane heat, with niggly injury concerns to players.

Collingwood $1.15 v Brisbane - Brisbane were woeful yesterday. no defensive structure at all, just all run forward.
travis cloke could have a field day

roos $1.38 v bulldogs - finals aspirants should get the job done.

Melbourne v GWS - this Booneys DRAW

freo v hawks - sit back and hope they belt the living suitcases out of eachother - hawks by 7 pts with a major half time scuffle resulting in around 30 players reported and with Rossy Lyon giving Clarko a spear tackle

[bennymacca]

west coast and richmond too look a little long at those odds, though it is always hard tipping both teams away i would think. tough games for sure.

[mighty_tiger_79]

freo into $1.72 with roughy out for the week

[bennymacca]

freo into $1.72 with roughy out for the week

My bet of buddy to win the Coleman @ $9 is looking good