Round 20 v Geelong

[valleys07]

I don't think i've ever wished for a drought to end quite like this one. Port d Geelong- a phrase i've waited 6 years to read.

Nathan Blee comes in for the injured Paul Stewart, after some impressive form for North Adelaide. Geelong have wielded the axe- with Hunt (Josh and Taylor), Blicavs, West and Smedts making way for Podsiadly, Christiansen, Stringer, Rivers and rookie Josh Walker.

Heading into Round 13- the Cats were flying at 11-1 and thinking ahead it was the cats by how much. Fast forward 7 weeks and we are seeing the mighty wobble. Fade-out losses to Brisbane and Adelaide and a loss to North Melbourne when they were hardly in the contest has opened up some small weaknesses that Port must take advantage of, such as taking the game on to force defensive pressure on the cats back 6, who lets face it- haven't been faced with too many situations in the last 6 years where an opposition team gets a run on. However- Geelongs losses to Brisbane and Adelaide brought about thumpings against the Saints (101 points) and Fremantle (41 points) the following weeks.

Tom Hawkins will be a huge difference this saturday. 6 goals against the power in round 9 this season (and 4 to the jpod) presents a combo that Carlisle and Trengove will find hard to stop. 12 goals in his past 6 sees the big cat in a rough spot, which i hope can continue for another weekend.

Clearances are another weakness to geelong this season, and port simply must take advantage of this. For once I believe we have a firm advantage in the midfield. Lobbe should have the better of Vardy and Walker, and with the cats ranked 17th this season in clearances, port need to get on top early in the midfield- let by Boak who hopefully can pick up where his last quarter of last week left off.

Id expect Cornes to go to either Johnson or Selwood, and Moore to take the other. Johnson has averaged a season high of 29 disposals for the cats, but cornes is equal to the task, averaging a season high 27 for port. A critical battle looms here.

After our recent record against the cats, this is our best chance to break the duck. Interesting to note that since round 21 2007- we are 1 of 2 losses for geelong at skilled since that day.

I hope and pray its about to become 3.

Port by 1 point.

[Booney]

Last time round the under sized Jonas went to Podsiadly while Trengove was out with his broken foot which I think gave Carlile the wrong match up on Hawkins.

I think Trengove's reach on Hawkins will help while Carlile can match it with Podsiadly. I dont think anyone is strong enough to muscle Hawkins around so you have to be right with him and use reach of body position to beat him. Having both in decent form (the Port defenders) will help this time around.

Hinkleys knowledge of how the Cats play at home will be an advantage for sure, as noted in this mornings paper and how they use the centre corridor so well at Cat Park.

We have an edge in the ruck with Lobbe (most teams do over Geelong) and our midfield depth runs deep and all are in good form.

Monfries to play a defensive / accountability role on Bartel who sweeps the back half of the ground doing as he see's fit. Send Gus to him and that should be a good battle.

I'd like to think we can win but the Cats dont like losing and I dont recall the last time they lost two in a row.

Cats by 11 points.

[Slots It Through]

Last time they played when Geelong skipped away to a big lead, there was no midfield pressure at all. The power mids would want to make sure that isnt the case tomorrow, as Selwood, Johnson, Bartel etc will have a field day lacing out Hawkins and the JPod

Our boys should be full of confidence from last week, and hopefully have a real crack, but beating Geelong in Geelong is a very tough ask.

Geelong by 25.

[jackpot jim]

Geelong by 25.

Nice tip

[valleys07]

We need Mason Shaw to put on about 10 kgs over this pre-season!