Hogg Division I 2012

[Alaska]

Round 11
1,471 average this week in Division 1,350 below the last round but 125 more than the first round. 1,548 average for all three bye rounds.

A number of close matches this week but we see Les’s Men come out of the bye carnage still undefeated. Slim moved into the 8 with a win over the Potenza at the expense of the Badgers who lost to the second placed Spuds to slide out of the 8. 10 teams are on between 7 and 5 wins fighting for 5 spots in the eight with Has Been seemingly comfortable in the top 4.

The Beasts won but not by as much as I thought they would and the Potenza’s epiphany last week was short lived and they had to settle with a below average score. However, they did have an average over the byes of 100 more that the average for the Division so they could have an impact on the make up of the 8 yet. The other one to look out for that has seen significant improvement over the Bye rounds and averaged 200 more than the Division average over all three and has now moved into the top 4 is Buddy. He would appear to be an early favourite for a GF berth.

It would appear that the bottom 5 will now be fighting to avoid relegation with Rumcoks and Cobras an advantage at the moment with an extra win on the board

[Alaska]

Round 12
Now that we have left the dreaded byes behind and most teams have freshened up the line ups for the run to the finals, we can get back to some serious head to head clashes. A number of teams will be hoping for a return of the super premium Pendles to win their matches, but I do not believe he will make it and will sit out another week.

The first of which is the top two on the table The Spuds in second spot with Hargrave, Scotland, Priddis, J. Kennedy, Horsley, N. Roo, Porpoise and Beams take on Les’s Men with Clarke, Ellis, Rockliff, Pendles Dal Santo, Dangerfield, Chapman and Dickson this will be very close but if Pendles does not play the chocolates should go to The Spuds for Les’s first loss.

In another top of the table clash the 4th placed Buddy Franklin with Enright, Drummond, Grimes, Dempsey, Thompson, J. Selwood, Rockliff, Ablett, Priddis, Jacobs, Chappy and Roughhead takes on the Boongas Bulldogs with Scotland, Lake, Waters, Bugg, Stanton, Mitchell, Boyd, A Swallow, Macdonald, Cox, N. Roo and Dangerfield in 5th place. The Captain choice here is critical and I will go with Buddy’s midfield to just edge out the Bullies.

The Badgers should take care of the Cobras who have been ruthless at the trade table to bring back a more competitive side after the byes but will still fall short.
The Lions should return to the winners circle after three consecutive losses against the FootyLedgens who also have had to smash out the trades just to keep a team on the park due to injuries.

On the opposite side Duncs has been keeping his powder dry and should have a number of trades up his sleeve to finish off the season, however he comes across the top four side in One Team Player’s team Has Been who has made 6 upgrades and should win as a result.

I keep looking at Ron’s Rumcoks and they look like a good team on paper, perhaps the coach has lost them, or he needs to draw a line in the sand or hit the panic button but I cannot pick them on current form against the Heroes.

Next we have the clash of the sister cites Denver and Potenza one from the USA and the other from Italy. The Potenza has won 2 of the last 4 and Denver only 1 although they have gone down to top 4 sides. Going into the break the Potenza looked in better form and Denver having Pendles, I will go for an upset win to the Potenza.

Going into the byes Cossi looked to be picking up momentum and the Beasts stalling a bit they will both be super keen to win to keep their finals hopes alive. Once again I will go with the Pendles factor which should see Cossi prevail.

The last match of the round should be a cracker with both Slim with Hurn, Lake Malceski, Thompson, Robinson, Swan, Boyd, Griffen, Cloke, Beams, Sherman and the team from Marion with Goddard, Waters, Hargrave, Ablett, Mitchell, Hayes, Horsley, Cox, Whitecross, Porpoise Sidebottom sitting on 6 wins. I will flip a coin and say the ManBearPigs just.

[nuggety goodness]

My bullies V buddy Franklin is looking precariously tight!

Its 1947/18 with A Swallow and N Riewoldt left

V

1646/15 with Enright, J Selwood, Rockliff, Drummond and Grimes left

I could really do with this win! Something tells me that Rockliff and Selwood are gonna go ballistic and my two are gonna pull 60's...

[lovetotalkfooty]

Did not get a chance (AKA forgot) to update my team this week. Spewin. Easy win for who ever im playing

[cossi11]

Did not get a chance (AKA forgot) to update my team this week. Spewin. Easy win for who ever im playing

yeh yeh

[lovetotalkfooty]

Did not get a chance (AKA forgot) to update my team this week. Spewin. Easy win for who ever im playing

yeh yeh

look at my bench

[Rik E Boy]

Division I ladder. Les's Men has suffered his first loss of the season in the top of the ladder clash.

regards,

REB

[Alaska]

Round 12 Review
Some really good close fought games this week. I only picked 6 right with the Bullies just getting over Buddy by 12 points which is no mean feat as Buddy has gone one clear on top in the Champions league this week, the Rumcoks hitting the panic button and rolling the Heroes and Slim proving to strong by 68 for the ManBearPigs, perhaps on the back of the Captain’s choice and the Marion team being let down by Ablett.

The fight for the 8 remains tight, with the Crows loss putting them out on percentage and the Badgers coming in. The teams that seem to have come out of the byes in top form are the Bullies, Buddy, Slim and Cossi and with 5 games to go before finals they look good to make the 8. The teams who are hoping that the impending return of Pendles is not further delayed and will boost their scores are Les’s Men, BenjisBeasts, Denver Crows, Hondas Heroes, Honey Badgers, Rumcoks and Has Been, the rest of us hope it will be delayed a bit further to help us win the close ones coming up.

[nuggety goodness]

Round 12 Review
Some really good close fought games this week. I only picked 6 right with the Bullies just getting over Buddy by 12 points which is no mean feat as Buddy has gone one clear on top in the Champions league this week, the Rumcoks hitting the panic button and rolling the Heroes and Slim proving to strong by 68 for the ManBearPigs, perhaps on the back of the Captain’s choice and the Marion team being let down by Ablett.

The fight for the 8 remains tight, with the Crows loss putting them out on percentage and the Badgers coming in. The teams that seem to have come out of the byes in top form are the Bullies, Buddy, Slim and Cossi and with 5 games to go before finals they look good to make the 8. The teams who are hoping that the impending return of Pendles is not further delayed and will boost their scores are Les’s Men, BenjisBeasts, Denver Crows, Hondas Heroes, Honey Badgers, Rumcoks and Has Been, the rest of us hope it will be delayed a bit further to help us win the close ones coming up.

You little beauty!!!

Now gotta back it up and try to cement a finals appearance...

Team is 1 player away from settled, only 4 trades left but heres hoping I won't need them for any more LTI's

[Alaska]

Round 13 Preview
I think this week seven coaches in Division 1 are more than a bit annoyed about one Matthew Kreuzer as he continues to rot away and leak points to just about everyone else.. Those who still have him must be revaluating their trading strategy and moving to using one trade to rid them of his poor performances.

Les’s Men has another tough task this week taking on the top placed Champions league team and current Hogg top scorer Buddy who has completed his team and is in top form, although Les should get Pendles back I feel he will fall just short again and make it 2 losses in a row.

The Spuds should do enough to beat the Cobras who seem to be foundering out at sea again, which should see them move into top spot. The Bullies also in top form take on the bottom placed FootyLedgens and should despatch them easily.

The match of the day is between last years Division 4 grand finalists who both should get back Pendles and only 2 points separated them last week. With Buddy and Goddard out the bench players of Has Been’s Ellis and Adams may be a little to strong for Sam Shaw and Sexton from the Badgers. Although, Has Been’s first ruck of Gilles, Swan and Priddis will need to beat the Badgers Ryder, J. Kennedy and Mitchell combination to take the 4 points. A very intriguing match-up that will go down to the wire, flip a coin says Has Been which will give the Badgers no joy of retribution.

The Lions in red hot form take on Ron’s Rumcoks fresh from a victory over the hapless Heroes last week and looking to strengthen their midfield with the hopeful addition of Penlebury. Hopefully this will not be enough and the Lions can prevail in part by utilising the Kreuzer curse.

Duncs fell in a hole last week and desperately needs a win to try to pull himself out of the relegation zone. He needs to make some trades now to upgrade his team to become competitive as the Potenza has done and they should win easily as a result.

The Beasts and the Heroes are both licking their wounds after defeats last week and neither can afford to drop a game to the other and potentially loose touch with the 8. Both should get Pendlebury back so that won’t help but the Beast’s do not have Buddy or Goddard to worry about but need a couple of upgrades in their forward line, if they can do that they should win.

In another big 8 point game this week the two 2011 Division 2 grand finalists play off. The Crows will be angry both with last years loss and their coaches sleep-in last week that left them with half a team, that combined with the return of Pendlebury should see them tear the ManBearPigs apart.

Another big game between two inform teams completes the round with Cossi and Slim looking in fine finals fettle both have big goal scoring key forwards and talented midfields to feed them I will pick Cossi as he has a slightly more upgraded team at this stage.

[nuggety goodness]

Round 13 Preview


The Bullies also in top form take on the bottom placed FootyLedgens and should despatch them easily
.

I dunno about this... Cub has got me covered at the moment...

It's 1518/15 with Mitchell, Ablett (c) and Lake

Vs

1541/14 with Suckling, J McDonald, M Johnson and Dahlhaus left plus Paine's 44 if Buddy pulls out

I need a big one from GAJ and hope I can scrape in!!!

[Rik E Boy]

Round 13 ladder with a new Division I leader and a massive upset as cobras beat Spuds. Don't look now but Alaska is in the eight.

regards,

REB

[Alaska]

Review
Well the big Kreuze missile played well when Hampson went down early and gave his owners some hope, but I suspect he needs to be the sole ruckmen to do consistently well. Pendles spent another week in the sheds and so hurt those that have persevered with him the first being Les’s Men, who did not have enough firepower to topple Buddy and so dropped from top spot. However it wasn’t the Spuds as predicted that took top spot as the Cobras appeared out of the mist and gave the Spuds a broadside that Black Beard would have been proud of to inflict their second loss, also giving the Cobras a bit of breathing space on the relegation spots.

Top spot goes to Has Been with his continued ownership of the Badgers who lost Waters late but had too many donuts and even had to play Sexton who is out for the season so they may be very low on trades, which is not good as they have now lost their spot in the 8. Has Been moved in on Carrazzo so they are still improving their team and are looking at getting Goddard, Pendles and Martin back in the future to further strengthen an already formidable outfit.

The Bullies after an early scare consolidated their spot in the top 4 by despatching the FootyLedgens. The Lions beat Ron’ Rumcoks in a close one by 30 points after looking good with the initial projection the Lions were gradually hauled in by the Rumcoks and if the last game had gone another couple of minutes they would have overran them.

I do not know what to think about the Potenza with another terrible sub 2000 score which meant they succumbed to DunkzKrew by 52 points this now gives the Krew a sniff at saving relegation as they are now on the same number of wins.

The Beasts scored the highest score of the round with a 2509, and that was without Pendlebury to defeat the Heroes who on 2349 were unlucky to loose. In another high scoring encounter Cossi got up by 92 points over Slim which further tightened the fight for a spot in the bottom half of the 8.

The final game saw the Crows suffering without Pendles and having Darling and Kornes letting him down although the big Cox gave him hope, surrendering to the ManBearPigs by 30 points, who had their own problems with Waters being a late withdrawal and Gibson and Broughton doing little to trouble the statisticians. The Crows are now one win out of the 8 and may not get another opportunity to atone for their loss in last years grand final to the ManBearPigs.

[Banker]

the Badgers who lost Waters late but had too many donuts and even had to play Sexton who is out for the season so they may be very low on trades, which is not good as they have now lost their spot in the 8.

Yep horror season continues. No forward bench with Sexton-Crozier-Couch-Martin. All will miss this week too so another donut.


Should of sideways traded Pendles into Beams/Pav/Goodes for the MPP link a few weeks ago

[MatteeG]

I do not know what to think about the Potenza with another terrible sub 2000 score

I do. They are Rubbish.

[Alaska]

Round 14
Four minor round games to go and we still have a log jam around teams vying for spots in the bottom half of the 8. Those who have sacrificed trades in order to be competitive and have a chance of making the 8 will now find it tough as injuries, undisciplined acts and the General continue to take toll on their teams. This continues this week with Waters out for 5 Buddy 3 – 4, Goddard and Martin still one to go, Shuey 1 week, Wellingham 3 weeks, Bartel 2 weeks and Hurley for 3 weeks

In the first game look out Les’s Men you could be sailing into an ambush the Cobras score last week would be enough to send you to Davey Jones’s locker, although safely in the top 4 recent form for Les has been miserable and the Cobras had a good win last week and should continue their current form.

Again based on last weeks form the FootyLedgens should take it up to Buddy, but unfortunately look like once again falling just short.

The top of the table clash between Has Been and The Spuds will not be as suggested a battle of the detritus of the footballing world, but that of two teams that have experienced very few defeats. The recent form of Has Been should be enough to get them over the line.

Nuggety’s Bullies reacquaint themselves with Ron’s Rumcoks both finishing in the top 4in Division 2 last year at the end of the minor round. Although this year the wheels seem to have lost their rubber for the Rumcoks and they are wobbling unsteadily at the tail of the field. The Bullies should kill off any slim chance the Rumcoks have of making the 8 with a win this week.

The Badgers are starting to stagger like a prize fighter that has taken too many hits to the head and looks ripe for the plucking. However which Potenza is going to show up, although a team that has the likes of Grimes and Tippet in it will exhibit little inconsistencies. The Badgers just.

The Lions take on one of their nemesis’s this week in the Beasts that beat them in the Division 6 2010 grand final. On that occasion the Lions were tipped by REB and were let down by Geelong generals so they will claim underdog status this week. Although there are a few in the team that will be after revenge as they have stayed loyal to the Lions over the last couple of years (Gaz, J. Selwood, Cox and N. Roo are a few I recall)

DunkZKrew will be chasing a win to avoid relegation but are struggling to get over 2000 and so should be easy meat for the ManBearPigs this week.

Slim and the Heroes are two evenly matched teams that play off for what would be the Heroes last chance to make the 8. They need to win every game from here I suspect and so will be hoping for Pendles to get back in the team although they still have to cover Goddard, whereas Slim does not, so he should win.

The Crows have slid down the table since round 7 where they were 5th to 10th and their only win in that time was against the Cobras who were all at sea at the time. They come up against Cossi who was 13th in round 7 just securing his third win. Now at Round 13 they have 7 wins on the board. If the Crows loose here their season is in tatters and the final 8 will be unachievable, a big game but the inform Carnts should romp it home.

[Alaska]

One late change, it appears the Badgers have taken some more body blows and no matter what Potenza turns up they should blow them over.

[Rik E Boy]

Latest Division I ladder with Alaska in a bit of strife. Not as much a strife as Cub and Duncs though.

regards,

REB

[Alaska]

Review

The Spuds showed that recent good form was not enough trouncing Has Been by 103 points to reclaim 2nd spot. Les’s Men and Buddy had walkovers with Les regaining top spot and Buddy slipping into the top 4 at the expense of the Bullies who went down by 22 to the Rumcoks who were happy Pendlebury was back.

The two inform teams of the last couple of weeks move into the 8 in Cossi and the Beasts with the top two scores of the round. Cossi knocked out Denver who now cannot make the 8 without a miracle. The Beasts once again feasted on the Lions to drop them out of the 8 winning by 46 points.

The Heroes welcomed back Pendles and had a win against Slim that knocked them out of the 8 but the Heroes effort will I fear be in vein as they are like Denver two wins out of the 8.

DunkzKrew has tossed in the towel with a score of 1590 and this may save the Potenza from relegation who once again lost, this time to the Badgers with Pendles returning.

With 3 minor round games to go there are 6 teams fighting for 3 spots in the 8. The two teams in form that have just moved in however have poor percentage and this may count against them in the final wash up as there are some tough games to come.

[Alaska]

Well I have done my selections for the rest of the minor rounds and I do not like what I see. My predictions lead to a table that looks like this:
HAS BEEN 14 wins
LES'S MEN 13 wins
THE SPUDS 13 wins
MARION MANBEARPIGS 11 wins
BOONGAS BULLDOGS 11 wins
COSSI'S CARNTS 11 wins
BENJISBEASTS 11 wins
BUDDY FRANKLIN 10 wins

LONGWOOD LIONS 10 wins
HONDA'S HEROES 9 wins
RUMCOKS 8 wins
HONEY BADGERS 7 wins
SLIMSHADY DTC 7 wins
DENVERCROWS 6 wins
PUOPOLO POTENZA 4 wins
COBRAS 4 wins
DUNKZKREW 3 wins
FOOTYLEDGENS 1 win

This scenario has Has Been as minor premier and the ManBearPigs grabbing a double chance. Buddy would not like this development as he nearly tumbles out of the 8 with only one win predicted from the last 3 games, which would be an embarrassment for the Hogg leader. Fortunately there is hope as those that would have followed my tips this year will know I am not very reliable. Some of the games this week are critical to the make up of the 8. I think the key to my model and where it could be undone is that Cossi and Benji the inform sides do not look like dropping a game from here in the minor round. If one or both does, the whole complexion changes due to their low percentages.

Buddy comes up against a resurgent Rumcoks and I have selected Rumcoks who with the return of Pendlebury look a 100 point better team.

Benji’s first test is against 5th placed Bulldogs relying on Stanton, Mitchell, A. Swallow and Ablett in the midfield against Thompson, Swan, Cotchin and Pendlebury from the Beasts who look to be firing better at the moment.

The Lions take on Slim in an elimination final as whoever looses cannot make the 8 and I am hoping the 140 point buffer to the Lions last week cannot be broached.

Les’s Men should easily account for the Ledgens and Has Been will be too strong for the Cobras. Cossi also shouldn’t be troubled by DunkzKrew. The Spuds in 2nd spot should account for the 16th placed Potenza.

The Badgers will be desperate as this is their last chance on 7 wins but the ManBearPigs are starting to show their tusks and should find the soft underbelly of the Badgers and exploit it with a triumph.

The Heroes and the Crows on 6 wins are now only fighting for pride and unfortunately for the team from Denver, Honda looks stronger at this time based on last week.