2011 Melbourne Cup - Tips, discussion

[CK]

The final field will be named shortly, with barrier draws, but thought it worth opening the thread for posters to discuss the race.

Two that really appealed to me from the Caulfield Cup were Unusual Suspect and Drunken Sailor. Worth having a look at the Cup here, particularly the last 1000m or so:



Drunken Sailor is in the blue on the rails, about 5 back. From around the 800m mark, he starts running into traffic and tiring horses. Unusual Suspect, at this point, is sitting in the last 3, black/green, and white, and hemmed in on the rails. Note particularly, around the 400m until the 250m, when Unusual Suspect is baulked for a run and has to change course. When he gets that clear run, he motors to the line very nicely, with Drunken Sailor just next to him. Both very solid Cup trials, IMHO, and both look like starting at 26's or plus for the big race.

Niwot is in the same event, racing on the pace for some time. Looked to go to the front far too early, but was ridden much more patiently in the Lexus today and reaped the rewards.

Dunaden's Geelong Cup win featured here - I can't believe Bauer will miss the Melbourne Cup again, after his run in this race (the darker grey, about 4-5 back on the fence). Absolutely luckless throughout and kept running into traffic whereever he goes, before hurtling home for 3rd. Dunaden's sprint from the 700m is very impressive, and shaken up over the last 100m. Whether he can get the extra 800m Tuesday will be interesting:

[CK]

Final field and barrier draw:

recent form horse trainer rider bar. wgt kg form
1 13X66X10X1 Americain Alain de Royer Dupre Gerald Mosse 15 58
2 01794X1311 Jukebox Jury Mark Johnston Mr Neil Callan 6 57
3 12X3X12X91 Dunaden Mikel Delzangles None 13 54.5
4 X446X13137 Drunken Sailor Luca Cumani Dwayne Dunn 8 54
5 2312X24201 Glass Harmonium Michael Moroney Ms Lisa Cropp 23 54
6 2573X34844 Manighar Luca Cumani Damien Oliver 21 54
7 3621X5X406 Unusual Suspect Michael Kent None 7 54
8 2164112461 Fox Hunt Mark Johnston Mr Silvestre De Sousa 19 53.5
9 111X4215X5 Lucas Cranach Anthony Freedman Corey Brown 11 53.5
10 2042X04312 Mourayan Robert Hickmott Hugh Bowman 14 53.5
11 X025X67009 Precedence Bart Cummings Darren Beadman 2 53.5
12 9X20141053 Red Cadeaux Ed Dunlop Michael Rodd 16 53.5
13 341FX60220 Hawk Island Chris Waller Glyn Schofield 18 53
14 262X1421X3 Illo Bart Cummings Jim Cassidy 1 53
15 189X223274 Lost in the Moment Saeed Bin Suroor Mr William Buick 3 53
16 12X1X02241 Modun Saeed Bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy 5 53
17 23245X0622 At First Sight Robert Hickmott Steven King 10 52.5
18 2DX2235013 Moyenne Corniche Brian Ellison Brett Prebble 17 52
19 534X755580 Saptapadi Brian Ellison Chris Symons 22 52
20 41312X8070 Shamrocker Danny O'Brien Luke Nolen 24 52
21 2114331510 The Verminator Chris Waller Craig Newitt 4 52
22 1421X83832 Tullamore Gai Waterhouse Chris Munce 12 52
23 0121X07201 Niwot Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dean Yendall 9 51
24 1142X06530 Older Than Time Gai Waterhouse Tim Clark 20 51

[gadj1976]

I'm all over Tullamore and I hope (to the extent of 1800 bucks) it wins, but I can't believe Bauer didn't get a run! It would've been 4th of 5th favourite. Joke.

[stampy]

dont think anyone can beat the 2 frog horses, the trick is which one?

after having said that an astute cup judge text me "illo" after its last run

[Johno6]

Where can ya read all the runners form guides etc.
I think jukebox jury is worth a few bob

[mighty_tiger_79]

sunday mail

im sure online corporates would have formguides up somewhere soon

[Johno6]

Do u guys think this years fielder is weaker or stronger than last years??

[mighty_tiger_79]

one of my cup systems ive got has come up with 3,10,17

still need to include Americain, will be giving away weight to some of the other internationals that did beat it home, BUT he won here last year and is proven on australian conditions and in one particular race had no luck at all.

theres a few others that have place hopes at best and need to be included for the exotics

[Johno6]

does americain have an extra 3.5 kg from last year??

[Brodlach]

Does anyone else think the Melbounre Cup is over-rated?. If it was just a normal 3200m race with the same runners, it wouldnt rate a mention

[Johno6]

Im lookin at boxing up for the tri now

Americain, Illo, Jukebox Jury, Tullamore, Manighar, and maybe Dunedan......

and brod, yes very much so... i was talkin to someone today saying i dont understand why its the race that stops the nation, noone gives a rats about any other races around 3000m

[mighty_tiger_79]

Does anyone else think the Melbounre Cup is over-rated?. If it was just a normal 3200m race with the same runners, it wouldnt rate a mention

yes i do. and given we have so many internationals i believe is a negative

[RedMagpie]

1,2,4,7 from 1,2,3,4,7,9,12,23 $300 on first four.

[Johno6]

edit, found the video.

jukebox jury lead all the way.
americain seemed to get checked just after the turn and blocked for a run.

http://youtu.be/4e2QF5TqE3s

i dunno hwo to get video in post properly

[A Mum]

Does anyone else think the Melbounre Cup is over-rated?. If it was just a normal 3200m race with the same runners, it wouldnt rate a mention

yes i do. and given we have so many internationals i believe is a negative

Maybe the actual race itself - I was thinking that the other day - international's have taken over.
BUT - I LOVE The Melbourne Cup
I love the 'roar' as the gates open.
I love that it's a race that stops a nation.

I wish we had a public holiday for it !!

[Groover]

I like numbers 1,2,3,4,8,9 and 14

dare say ill be boxing them up in my tri's

[mighty_tiger_79]

i think jukebox jury is poorly weighted v americain.

[mighty_tiger_79]

bauer misses out cos of $944, wheres the discretionary powers. I mean theres a horse who has won only 1 race and another only 2 races. bauer wouldve been competitive, these 2 will be battling it out to beat the ambulance home

[Johno6]

Niwot into $13..

do u think americains weight and barrier will stop him?
i think if he has a clear run home will be hard to beat if he is close enough on home turn.

also for the start stable players dunaden only $25,000... bargain buy

[mighty_tiger_79]

americain

barrier no drama, weight no real issue i dont believe. Dunaden is the 1 horse well weighted v americain.

Not sure bout niwot - won ok but didnt beat alot, the 2 horses behind niwot are proverbial non winners