2011 Brownlow

[Mr_Willy]

From Twitter.... Surely they are just getting stupid with these now... They lose their gloss when they do it frequently...

@sportsbetcomau has declared the 2011 @AFL #brownlow over and has paid out $300,000+ on @carlton_fc's Chris Judd to win!

[overloaded]

All a publicity stunt. Will get more than $300,000 worth of promotion.

Swallow has been carp the last few months I reckon

[CoverKing]

I'd personally just ignore WCE all together. A $5+ Cox might be value, but on previous polling history $2-$2.5 is far from value imo.

Another 3 votes to Judd on the weekend and unlikely votes for Pendlebury means it could be close to all over.

I think one thing we need to consider is with Cox's bad polling history is that he was up against Cousins, Judd and Kerr for the majority of his years. Makes it hard when you have 3 umpire attractors like that. people talk about Judd being a vote certainty, kerr regularly racks up votes when he plays

[brent-83]

I'd personally just ignore WCE all together. A $5+ Cox might be value, but on previous polling history $2-$2.5 is far from value imo.

Another 3 votes to Judd on the weekend and unlikely votes for Pendlebury means it could be close to all over.

I think one thing we need to consider is with Cox's bad polling history is that he was up against Cousins, Judd and Kerr for the majority of his years. Makes it hard when you have 3 umpire attractors like that. people talk about Judd being a vote certainty, kerr regularly racks up votes when he plays

Except that his best year (12 votes) was with those players in the team (from memory). Now don't get me wrong, he might go on to win for WCE, but it is a complete stay away market for me.

Also take this into account. West Coast won 4 games last year, and Priddis scored 13 votes.

I'm not telling you not to back him, but I won't be.

[CoverKing]

I'd personally just ignore WCE all together. A $5+ Cox might be value, but on previous polling history $2-$2.5 is far from value imo.

Another 3 votes to Judd on the weekend and unlikely votes for Pendlebury means it could be close to all over.

I think one thing we need to consider is with Cox's bad polling history is that he was up against Cousins, Judd and Kerr for the majority of his years. Makes it hard when you have 3 umpire attractors like that. people talk about Judd being a vote certainty, kerr regularly racks up votes when he plays

Except that his best year (12 votes) was with those players in the team (from memory). Now don't get me wrong, he might go on to win for WCE, but it is a complete stay away market for me.

Also take this into account. West Coast won 4 games last year, and Priddis scored 13 votes.

I'm not telling you not to back him, but I won't be.

HIs best year is now this year IMO and he doesnt have Cousins or Judd playing so that will help him. But i agree, Priddis does poll extremely well and gets noticed. Will be interesting to see how Shuey goes for the eagles

[Squids]

Just put a little bit on Judd on Sportsbet, hoping I would get an instant 185% return.... no such luck.

One I do like is Dal Santo top 5, consistently good all season, even when St. Kilda were no good. I think he might pick a few 1's early on and then some 2/3s once St Kilda started to win games.

[brent-83]

Just put a little bit on Judd on Sportsbet, hoping I would get an instant 185% return.... no such luck.

One I do like is Dal Santo top 5, consistently good all season, even when St. Kilda were no good. I think he might pick a few 1's early on and then some 2/3s once St Kilda started to win games.

Very good bet on Dal Santo. Has been on fire in many of their wins. What price was top 5?

[MAY-Z]

Just put a little bit on Judd on Sportsbet, hoping I would get an instant 185% return.... no such luck.

One I do like is Dal Santo top 5, consistently good all season, even when St. Kilda were no good. I think he might pick a few 1's early on and then some 2/3s once St Kilda started to win games.

Very good bet on Dal Santo. Has been on fire in many of their wins. What price was top 5?

i dont think he polls until rd 10

[overloaded]

Just put a little bit on Judd on Sportsbet, hoping I would get an instant 185% return.... no such luck.

One I do like is Dal Santo top 5, consistently good all season, even when St. Kilda were no good. I think he might pick a few 1's early on and then some 2/3s once St Kilda started to win games.

Very good bet on Dal Santo. Has been on fire in many of their wins. What price was top 5?

i dont think he polls until rd 10

Agree May. Save your money

[Squids]

Was only $2.70

who do people have in spots 3-5 ?

Judd / Ablett / Pendlebury/

murphy? cox?

I don't see many more chances....

[CK]

Ablett will be a very hard one to line up. Couldn't possibly win it, even if he picks up 20+ votes, because Judd alone will get more than that. He will certainly get the "recognition" factor from the umpires (in that, a number of his teammates simply wouldn't be known enough to the umpires early), and does have some monster numbers in losses, but don't think people could seriously look at backing him. The last winner to come from a team that won five or less games was Kelvin Templeton back in 1980, and that was after kicking 75 goals from centre half forward - Ablett simply doesn't have that behind him. Save your money on him.

I agree entirely with those who say Dal Santo can't win. He may pick up a vote in round 1 against Geelong and possibly round six against Adelaide (both losses), but that will be it for him until round ten, and no Medallist has started that slowly to win it.

Acknowledging the concerns on Cox's poor history, I really can see him on anything up to 20 votes at present, as rightly pointed out by many about the lesser "known votegetters" around him this year. Contrary to some thoughts, Matthew Priddis is not a known votegetter. Last season was his best tally with 13 votes, and that was averaging 34 disposals a match (albeit in a much lesser performed team). This year, he averages 27 disposals a match, and still with a high handball to kick ratio (10 kicks, 17 handballs). Andrew Embley will get some also, but Cox's numbers (mentioned previously) will be hard to ignore.

Scott Thompson is an interesting one to line up. A known votegetter (has polled less than 12 votes in a season only once since 2007), his numbers are well above his career average this year, at over 29 disposals a match. The downside is how low Adelaide finish, but he is also unlikely to lose votes to many teammates. May surprise for a top 5.

[overloaded]

great preview CK, can you do a in depth preview on all the chances.

thanks

[Big Al]

Had a bet on dean cox
about time a big man won it, Scotty wynd was the last one back in 92
west coasts run home looks good
MELBOURNE away
ESSENDON home
BRISBANE away
ADELAIDE home
think judd will probably win though so a 20% win bet 80% place bet @ $17
The hip is a concern they are saying his right but they tend to say that even if there not
even if he doesn't miss games it may slow him up.
some great posts on this thread top stuff

[catchisthecry]

SAM MITCHELL! can you beat top 3 if ineligible?... just goes by votes received?

[brent-83]

Was only $2.70

who do people have in spots 3-5 ?

Judd / Ablett / Pendlebury/

murphy? cox?

I don't see many more chances....

My current top 5 order is Judd - Pendlebury - Mitchell - Murphy - Boyd.

[brent-83]

Was only $2.70

who do people have in spots 3-5 ?

Judd / Ablett / Pendlebury/

murphy? cox?

I don't see many more chances....

Hmm $2.70 maybe too short for my liking.

I never said Dal Santo has any chance to win the thing, but top 5, for sure. He has pretty much been in the top few players every game since they started their winning streak and has a good history of polling votes.

[brent-83]

Acknowledging the concerns on Cox's poor history, I really can see him on anything up to 20 votes at present, as rightly pointed out by many about the lesser "known votegetters" around him this year. Contrary to some thoughts, Matthew Priddis is not a known votegetter. Last season was his best tally with 13 votes, and that was averaging 34 disposals a match (albeit in a much lesser performed team). This year, he averages 27 disposals a match, and still with a high handball to kick ratio (10 kicks, 17 handballs). Andrew Embley will get some also, but Cox's numbers (mentioned previously) will be hard to ignore.

Scott Thompson is an interesting one to line up. A known votegetter (has polled less than 12 votes in a season only once since 2007), his numbers are well above his career average this year, at over 29 disposals a match. The downside is how low Adelaide finish, but he is also unlikely to lose votes to many teammates. May surprise for a top 5.

Can see your point on Cox (personally I have him on 15 at the moment, slightly ahead of Priddis), just don't think its worth taking the $2ish about him to win at WCE. Priddis actually has a strong polling history when you take into account the percentage of votes that go to a losing team (its not high, especially when teams are belted). He polled 20 votes over 2 seasons when WCE won 7 and 4 games. Agree re: the disposal totals, but not the handball to kick ratio. Embley has a shocking history, but I reckon Kerr will get a few votes this year too.

Thompson won't poll enough votes in losses to get top 5, unfortunately for him the Crows haven't even been close in many of their wins. Crows still play Gold Coast and Richmond though, and could be another 6 votes. I reckon you need 20+ to get top 5 this year, and can not see him on 14 at this point.

[Squids]

Totally disagree on Boyd, Western Bulldogs haven't won that many games and better more flashier types have been better, Griffen early on and Cooney as of late. Don't see Boyd who I think is terribly overated polling that many votes.

[Johno6]

Squids,

im confused...

in a diff thread u said Cooney is past his best, yet u just said he has been good as of late.?

[Squids]

Squids,

im confused...

in a diff thread u said Cooney is past his best, yet u just said he has been good as of late.?

I said that a while ago, his last few games have been very vote attracting games, running bounces, long kicks etc.