Melbourne Cup 2010 Tips & Discussion

[Thunder Down Under]

For what its worth I am on Americain, Manighar, Shocking and Tokai Trick but as usual I could easily miss the winner.

[beeroclock]

I'll be watching Profound Beauty win the cup from the comfort of the Grand Tasman Hotel front bar

Same for me,but not at the Tasman damn it.

[gadj1976]

1. Shocking. Can't go past a proven stayer who's had a pretty good lead up campaign. Not handicapped out of it either which is great.
2. Zipping. Freak
3. Americain. Geelong cup winners normally do well on the first Tuesday in November
4. Harris Tweed if wet or Manighar.

[SCD]

so am i the only one going across?
if so i need some real hot tips for all races guys!

please....

Thank god we pay the $500 for Hill stand seats each year under cover...
the weather forecast isn't nice!

I really like Typhoon Tracy in the Myer and Soul in the sprint.
Thought Albert the Fat e/w in the last was also a good chance.
Good luck.

[mighty_tiger_79]

do the form for the wet trackers

the forecast on sunday looks very wet and miserable, plus the rain tomorrow, monday and cup day

[CK]

I keep coming back to Monaco Consul. The Caulfield Cup run was excellent and looks like it will get the trip pretty well. Should have no trouble handling the wet if the rain keeps coming down also.

Surprising to see Alcopop as high as $71 in some markets now. Obviously, that has a bit to do with where it lies in order of entry (currently 29th), but worth remembering a great run last year in its first preparation for 6th. If it wins the Lexus tomorrow, that $71 - rain or not on Tuesday - may look extremely inviting.

Harris Tweed's $35 also looks overs, given the Caulfield Cup run and an impressive 5th in last year's race. Will love the wet also and looked just short of a run at Caulfield.

[brent-83]

I keep coming back to Monaco Consul. The Caulfield Cup run was excellent and looks like it will get the trip pretty well. Should have no trouble handling the wet if the rain keeps coming down also.

Surprising to see Alcopop as high as $71 in some markets now. Obviously, that has a bit to do with where it lies in order of entry (currently 29th), but worth remembering a great run last year in its first preparation for 6th. If it wins the Lexus tomorrow, that $71 - rain or not on Tuesday - may look extremely inviting.

Harris Tweed's $35 also looks overs, given the Caulfield Cup run and an impressive 5th in last year's race. Will love the wet also and looked just short of a run at Caulfield.

Alcopop will shorten dramatically if he actually makes the field, and that will pretty much depend on him winning the Lexus unless there is a fair amount of attrition. I like Consul too, and thought highly of Harris Tweed, but he had a colic attack in the last week so not sure if he will be 100%.

[Groover]

I have put $5 on the following
Zipping
Shoot Out
Harris Tweed
Mr Medici

[CK]

Final field to be named shortly.

Some good Cup trials today:

- Apart from So You Think, a dominant Mackinnon stakes winner, thought that Descarado really stuck on well, Shoot Out worked home stylishly into fourth in a real eye catcher, with Shocking also making steady ground toward the end.

- Hard to go past Maluckyday's win in the Lexus, but connections still deciding about a Cup start. Moudre's fourth was solid enough, not sure if it would be enough in a few days though, although it does like Flemington - assuming it gets a run. There was a fairly high attrition rate today, with a number of contenders either not being paid up, turning in terrible runs (Alcopop), or bleeding and being banned (Metal Bender)

So You Think still remains a doubt for mine, but if he is given clear room with 400m to run and has been ridden off the pace on Tuesday, it will get interesting. The rain is going to be a major factor. 35mm fell from race three to race nine today and a fair bit more to come.

[CK]

Final Field:

1 Shocking M Rodd
2 Campanologist K McEvoy
3 So You Think S Arnold
4 Zipping A Hall
5 Illustrious Blue G Boss
6 Mr Medici D Beadman
7 Shoot Out C Brown
8 Americain G Mosse
9 Tokai Trick K Fujito
10 Buccellati S King
11 Descarado N Rawailler
12 Harris Tweed B Rawiller
13 Managhar Damien Oliver
14 Master O’Reilly Vlad Duric
15 Moncao Consul Carig Williams
16 Profound Beauty Pat Smullen
17 Zavite Michael Walker
18 Bauer Chris Munce
19 Holberg FrankieDettori
20 Precedence Blake Shinn
21 Red Ruler Mark Du Plessis
22 Linton Brett Prebble
23 Once Were Wild Jim Cassidy
24 Maluckyday Craig Newitt


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Brodlach]

-03.00 EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP (3200 METRES)
Of $6000000 and $175000 trophies. 1st $3600000 and trophies of $150000 to owner $10000 to trainer $10000 to jockey $5000 to strapper, 2nd $900000, 3rd $450000, 4th $250000, 5th $175000, 6th $125000, 7th $125000, 8th $125000, 9th $125000, 10th $125000.
(GROUP 1).
No Allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 24
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper
Rating
1 SHOCKING Mark Kavanagh Michael Rodd 24 57 118
2 CAMPANOLOGIST (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy 19 56 116
3 SO YOU THINK (NZ) Bart Cummings Steven Arnold 3 56 124
4 ZIPPING Robert Hickmott Nicholas Hall 16 55.5 119
5 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (GB) William J Knight Glen Boss 9 55 112
6 MR MEDICI (IRE) Peter Ho Darren Beadman 5 55 112
7 SHOOT OUT John Wallace Corey Brown 17 55 116
8 AMERICAIN (USA) Alain de Royer Dupre Gerald Mosse 12 54.5 0.5 112
9 TOKAI TRICK (JPN) Kenji Nonaka Shinji Fujita 4 54.5 111
10 BUCCELLATI (GB) Tony Noonan Steven King 21 54 107
11 DESCARADO (NZ) Gai Waterhouse Nash Rawiller 1 54 1.5 117
12 HARRIS TWEED (NZ) Murray & Bjorn Baker Brad Rawiller 13 54 112
13 MANIGHAR (FR) Luca Cumani Damien Oliver 20 54 110
14 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien Vlad Duric 18 54 107
15 MONACO CONSUL (NZ) Michael Moroney Craig Williams 14 54 110
16 PROFOUND BEAUTY (IRE) Dermot K Weld Patrick Smullen 22 54 112
17 ZAVITE (NZ) Anthony Cummings Michael Walker 7 54 110
18 BAUER (IRE) Luca Cumani Chris Munce 2 53.5 109
19 HOLBERG (UAE) Saeed Bin Suroor Frankie Dettori 10 53.5 108
20 PRECEDENCE (NZ) Bart Cummings Blake Shinn 15 53.5 3.0 108
21 RED RULER (NZ) John Sargent Mark Du Plessis 8 53.5 107
22 LINTON Robert Hickmott Brett Prebble 23 52 1.0 105
23 ONCE WERE WILD Gai Waterhouse Jim Cassidy 11 51.5 108
24 MALUCKYDAY (NZ) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Luke Nolen 6 51 1.0 103

[westozfalcon]

Holberg will think it's his birthday with only 53.5kg. It's used to carrying 58-61kg so expect a good showing on Tuesday!

[LaughingKookaburra]

Master O'Rielly paying double figures to finish in top ten.... Yes please!

[lebron]

What about Bauer? Francesca Cumani really wanted him to gain a run, as all trainers do but, has anyone heard how he is going?

[UkBuff]

Profound Beauty and Bauer both get 3200m. The advantage the Eurpean horses have obviously is that they are used to running on softer ground! I am thinking it could be the year when the overseas horses do v.well.
Obviously if SYT gets the distance it will win, but it is a BIG unknown!
Amercain for me!

[mighty_tiger_79]

well one of my systems threw up 8,11,24, so they will definately be included in my multiples

i find it hard to go past SYT, its win on sat was impressive, only thing that could stop it is how heavy the track becomes.

1 - shocking - include in tris and first 4's, goes up in weight from last year which is a concern given the conditions expected, did run well in the caulfield cup but dont think it will win this years

4 - zipping - was making ground on SYT in the last 200m of the cox plate, another who can finish in the multiples

7 - was impressed with its cox plate run and went ok on saturday, did get beaten 5.4lengths but the winner won by 3.8l so it wasnt far off the others and can figure around the placings

8 - americain - solid effort in the geelong cup which is a good pointer to this race, should be suited to wet ground but has raced on a slow track and got beat comprehensively

11 -Descarado - caulfield cup winner and went ok on saturday a real chance of winning

12 - harris tweed - 2nd in the caulfield cup and it did loom up and look the winner in that. has had health issues but I think its in with a big chance especially if we get a heavy track

13 - manighar - will handle track conditions and distance, good run in caulfield cup and can be included in exotics at best, dont think it can win

15 - monaco consul - hasnt won a race since last years derby, handles the trip and conditions, good caulfield cup run, but another who i dont think can win but can be around placings

18 - bauer - honestly - WTF is this doing here in this race with only 2 runs since last years cup - i dont think so

19 - holberg - another godolphin runner, seemed to have gone under the radar this year, or is that because of so many past failures?? frankie has wasted to ride it, so it must be a good horse, but it wont be doing anything tuesday

20 - precedence - the bart factor is huge, handles distance and track conditions and was an impressive winner last time out

the bottom 3 all ran the trifecta on saturday

22,23,24

22 - if can get cover and not get caught out too wide and not get too far back, could run on into the finish, but i think next year might be his chance

23 - good run on sat, but it cant win this

24 - solid winner saturday and comes into strong calculations for this

[dodgingandweaving]

Righteo... For first 4's and trifecta's.... Who can we leave out?
I've looked through the form and made cases for almost all of the runners, but who can't run in the first 4?

- Campanologist
- Precedence
- Illustrious Blue (Although I was half keen on him a few weeks ago)
- Buccelati
- Red Ruler
- Tokai Trick (Japanese horses go OK in the Cup though)
- Harris Tweed (I know it loves the wet, but surely it's just not good enough?)
- Once Were Wild


Anyone disagree, or got another one?

I know you'll all say Master O'Reilly and Zavite, but I think they're value chances of running top 4.

[Sorry Dude]

does anyone know any sites where sweeps are done? i am trying to find something to make it a bit easier to do in the office (for around 90 people).

[Booney]

Will be boxing in a tri for a half unit :

Shocking
So you Think
Americain
Descarado
Manighar
Maluckyday

[A Mum]

Forgive me if this has already been mentioned

Sportsbet are offering to pay 4th place dividend on your horse in the Melbourne Cup.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/content/of ... ing-offers

Bets just have to be lodged before Midnight tonight.

Sounds good to me and I'll be suggesting 'A Dad' take up this offer so I don't have to listen to him whinge about running 4th !!!