AFL - finals week 3

[mighty_tiger_79]

AFL - Preliminary Finals
Week 3 Next Sports Event England v Pakistan @ Headingly (Cricket)Vuelta a Espana 2010 @ (Cycling)Stage 15 --- Solares - Lagos de Covadonga @ (Cycling)Lions v South Australia @ Centurion (Cricket)Italian GP @ Monza (Motor Sports)


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Collingwood v Geelong MCG - 17-9-2010 19:45AEST
Head To Head
Collingwood 1.85
Geelong 1.95
Head to Head and Lines INCLUDE EXTRA TIME - Note Margin Betting or Draw is Paid at the End of NORMAL TIME (Extra Time NOT included)

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St Kilda v Western Bulldogs MCG - 17-9-2010 19:45AEST
Head To Head
St Kilda 1.25
Western Bulldogs 4.00

[mighty_tiger_79]

st kilda should be closer to $1.10, they will smash the dogs

[Wedgie]

I noticed St Kilda are $2.80 in the betting for the flag, surely when they beat the Bulldogs this week they'll be shorter for the GF and an opportunity to get a really good % on the GF?
(Bulldogs wont get within a bulls roar of them this week)

On the other hand Collingwood are $1.85 ($2.75 for flag) to win this week and Geelong are $1.95 ($2.90). I couldnt see either of them being shorter than $1.50 to win the GF if they progress which their flag odds would make them.
Surely the GF betting would be having St Kilda around $2-$2.20?

Note: Ive only looked at sportsbet.com.au , probably even more value if I looked around.

[Mr_Willy]

I noticed St Kilda are $2.80 in the betting for the flag, surely when they beat the Bulldogs this week they'll be shorter for the GF and an opportunity to get a really good % on the GF?
(Bulldogs wont get within a bulls roar of them this week)

On the other hand Collingwood are $1.85 ($2.75 for flag) to win this week and Geelong are $1.95 ($2.90). I couldnt see either of them being shorter than $1.50 to win the GF if they progress which their flag odds would make them.
Surely the GF betting would be having St Kilda around $2-$2.20?

Note: Ive only looked at sportsbet.com.au , probably even more value if I looked around.

Think about it this way.

You get $1.25 this week - regardless of who they play next week if they win they will not be favourites... Probably around $2.50 at least. $2.50 x $1.25 = $3.125.... So $2.80 you are better off taking the $1.25 this week then dumping the winnings on St Kilda next week....

[mighty_tiger_79]

it all depends on who the saints play next week

saints v pies - saints would be around $3

saints v cats - saints would be around $2.40 if not shorter

[Mr_Willy]

it all depends on who the saints play next week

saints v pies - saints would be around $3

saints v cats - saints would be around $2.40 if not shorter

Really? I would think if geelong get over the pies, they would be raging favourites..

I think St Kilda will be $2.60+ regardless of who they play.

Even at $2.40 it would be a $3 all up with this week

[Wedgie]

Geez I must rate the Saints higher than everyone else, the only final they've lost in the last 2 years was last year's GF which could have gone either way.
This year they'll be playing one of two teams that would have had the crap beaten out of it the week before whilst they have the bye.

[mighty_tiger_79]

WAFL · Grand Final
Head to Head

Head to HeadClick a to view all markets for an event Win Line

CLAREMONT vs SWAN DISTRICTS
Start:
Closing:
Market is open.
Win : Pay on winner of match at the end of Full Time. Extra Time included.
Line : Pay on winner of match at the end of Normal Time, Dead Heat Rule applies.
1. CLAREMONT 1.24 -25.5 : 1.90
2. SWAN DISTRICTS 4.00 +25.5 : 1.90

claremont just win and should cover the line

[mighty_tiger_79]

SANFL - Finals
Week 2 Next Sports Event Race 6 - Dodge Tide v Preventable @ Pakenham (Horse Racing Specials)C Scheepers v Y-F Xu @ (Tennis)S Ferguson v S Zhang @ (Tennis)D Tursunov v Y Bhambri @ (Tennis)S Voegele v E Ivanova @ (Tennis)


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Glenelg v Eagles AAMI Stadium - 19-9-2010 12:40AEST
Head To Head
Glenelg 1.68
Eagles 2.17


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Central District v Norwood AAMI Stadium - 19-9-2010 15:40AEST
Head To Head
Central District 1.72
Norwood 2.10

[mighty_tiger_79]

South Australian Football League 2010
SANFL - Premiership 2010 - Outright Winner Next Sports Event Race 6 - Dodge Tide v Preventable @ Pakenham (Horse Racing Specials)C Scheepers v Y-F Xu @ (Tennis)S Ferguson v S Zhang @ (Tennis)D Tursunov v Y Bhambri @ (Tennis)S Voegele v E Ivanova @ (Tennis)
Time Left: 141 Hr 8 Min

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19-9-2010 12:40AEST
Winner
Central District 2.15
Norwood 2.65
Glenelg 5.00
Eagles 6.00
Payout on winner of South Australian National Football League 2010

AFL - Preliminary Finals
Week 3 Next Sports Event Race 6 - Dodge Tide v Preventable @ Pakenham (Horse Racing Specials)C Scheepers v Y-F Xu @ (Tennis)S Ferguson v S Zhang @ (Tennis)D Tursunov v Y Bhambri @ (Tennis)S Voegele v E Ivanova @ (Tennis)


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Collingwood v Geelong MCG - 17-9-2010 19:45AEST
Head To Head Line Line (Ev) 1-39 40+
Collingwood 1.85 - 2.00 (-5.5) 2.40 6.50
Geelong 2.00 - - 2.50 7.00
Draw 67.00
Head to Head and Lines INCLUDE EXTRA TIME - Note Margin Betting or Draw is Paid at the End of NORMAL TIME (Extra Time NOT included)
Other Bet Types: 1st Team To 25 Points | Half Time Leader | Quarter Time Leader | Total Points - Odd/Even | Tri Bet | Winning Margin | Winning Margin Spread | Plus 24.5 | Plus 39.5 | Quarter By Quarter | Half Time-Full Time Double | Half Time Margin | 1st Scoring Play | 1st Scoring Play - 2nd Quarter | 1st Scoring Play - 3rd Quarter | 1st Scoring Play - Last Quarter | 1st Team to Score | 1st Team To Score - 2nd Quarter | 1st Team To Score - 3rd Quarter | 1st Team To Score - Last Quarter | Super Margin

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St Kilda v Western Bulldogs MCG - 18-9-2010 19:20AEST
Head To Head Line Line (Ev) 1-39 40+
St Kilda 1.21 1.92 (-26.5) 2.00 (-29.5) 2.30 2.40
Western Bulldogs 4.50 1.92 (+26.5) 2.00 (+23.5) 4.75 21.00
Draw 67.00

[mighty_tiger_79]

Collingwood 2.75
St Kilda 2.80
Geelong 2.90
Western Bulldogs 16.00

[mighty_tiger_79]

Norm Smith Medal - Grand Final Best Player - ALL IN BETTING


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17-9-2010 19:45AEST
Winner
Dane Swan 11.00
Gary Ablett 11.00
Brendon Goddard 15.00
Nick Riewoldt 15.00
Joel Selwood 16.00
Alan Didak 17.00
Scott Pendlebury 17.00
Paul Chapman 18.00
Lenny Hayes 18.00
Leigh Montagna 21.00
Jimmy Bartel 23.00
Nick Dal Santo 23.00
Luke Ball 31.00
Travis Cloke 31.00
Dale Thomas 31.00
Steve Johnson 31.00
Harry O'Brien 34.00
Sam Gilbert 34.00
Jason Gram 34.00
Heath Shaw 41.00
Corey Enright 41.00
James Kelly 41.00
Stephen Milne 41.00
Adam Schneider 41.00
Dayne Beams 46.00
Leigh Brown 51.00
Darren Jolly 51.00
Nick Maxwell 51.00
Sharrod Wellingham 51.00
James Podsiadly 51.00
Sam Fisher 51.00
Leon Davis 61.00
Matthew Stokes 61.00
Travis Varcoe 61.00
Steele Sidebottom 67.00
Darren Milburn 67.00
Matthew Scarlett 67.00
Harry Taylor 67.00
David Wojcinski 67.00
Jarryd Blair 81.00
Chris Dawes 81.00
Ben Johnson 81.00
Shannon Byrnes 81.00
Cameron Mooney 81.00
James Gwilt 81.00
Brent Macaffer 91.00
Andrew Mackie 91.00
Jason Blake 91.00
Tyson Goldsack 101.00
Paul Medhurst 101.00
Joel Corey 101.00
Brad Ottens 101.00
Michael Gardiner 101.00
Clinton Jones 101.00
Justin Koschitzke 101.00
Brett Peake 101.00
Farren Ray 101.00
Ben Reid 126.00
Alan Toovey 126.00
Jarryn Geary 126.00
Matthew Boyd 126.00
Brian Lake 126.00
Tom Hawkins 151.00
Josh Hunt 151.00
Cameron Ling 151.00
Daniel Cross 151.00
Barry Hall 151.00
Andrew Mcqualter 176.00
Tom Lonergan 201.00
Ben Mcevoy 201.00
Daniel Giansiracusa 201.00
Ryan Griffen 201.00
Jarrod Harbrow 201.00
Simon Prestgiacomo 251.00
Mark Blake 251.00
Zac Dawson 251.00
Lindsay Gilbee 251.00
Robert Murphy 251.00
Shaun Higgins 301.00
Jarred Grant 401.00
Dylan Addison 501.00
Nathan Eagleton 501.00
Ben Hudson 501.00
Liam Picken 501.00
Callan Ward 501.00
Ryan Hargrave 601.00
Brad Johnson 651.00
Andrejs Everitt 751.00
Mitch Hahn 751.00
Josh Hill 751.00
Wil Minson 751.00
Tom Williams 751.00
Easton Wood 751.00
Liam Jones 1,001.00
Brodie moles 1,001.00
Jordan Roughead 1,001.00

[Mr_Willy]

Geez I must rate the Saints higher than everyone else, the only final they've lost in the last 2 years was last year's GF which could have gone either way.
This year they'll be playing one of two teams that would have had the crap beaten out of it the week before whilst they have the bye.

If you are basing your assessment on that argument then you would be over rating them....

I think they were VERY VERY lucky to win the first final against Geelong.

I don't think the Bulldogs will let them have it easy.... Won't be anywhere near as easy as Geelong's win on the weekend, and the game the saints play will take a lot out of them even if it isn't very physical....

If they are playing Collingwood they will be close to $3, if they play Geelong they will be around $2.40 but I think if Geelong can beat Collingwood they will be really up and about and get a lot of support at the bookies.

I rate St Kilda, I just think Collingwood are MUCH better and if Geelong beat Collingwood, well it sort of fathoms that Geelong are better than St Kilda.

[Mr_Willy]

Interesting Norm Smith Market.

Don't mind the odds for Kosi, Ottens, Medhurst, Mooney, Varcoe, Davis and even Milne.

Massive odds - they aren't the kind of players who will win B&F's or anything, but on their day could definitely win a Norm Smith.... because weight of possesions doesn't mean much in a GF, but if one of the above players could kick 5 or 6 which is possible then that could be enough...

Even Stevie J at $31 as a past winner....

[saintal]

IF it is a Coll V St K final, I think the market would be a lot tighter than some suggest above. St K were there last year, and you would hope they have learnt from the experience. On the other hand the Pies performances in big games is always a little suspect, and if they do manage to topple Geelong, have they played their GF a week early?

St K's recent record against the Pies (granted the Pies did flog them last time around) has also been very good.

A lot will depend on how the prelims pan out. If the Pies easily account for Geelong, then yes, they will be short priced favs agreed.

[SCD]

Collingwood 2.75
St Kilda 2.80
Geelong 2.90
Western Bulldogs 16.00

Assume for now the two favs in Collingwood and St Kilda..
With the odds this week - the all up would be

Collingwood $1.48 ($1.85 this week)
Saints $2.30 ($1.21 this week)
Makes a 111% market next week...

They bet 104 - 105% on the game, so there is no value here at all IMO...
Take the all up on the team you like and most likely you will be better off.

[mighty_tiger_79]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/f ... 5925024952

[Smart Punting]

•1.5units - Geelong 1-39 @ $2.55