2010 Brownlow Medal

[mighty_tiger_79]

anyone got any updated thoughts?

[Bum Crack]

Chapman

[brent-]

Much harder year than previous I have thought.

I really don't mind Hodges chances out of all the favourites though, and I reckon Swan is no chance.

[JK]

Had this conversation with a few mates the other day, and I reckon Hodge would be a couple clear at the moment .. I havent studied it deeply or kept any records, it's just the feeling I get

[mighty_tiger_79]

is hodge a vote getter? He is courageous which fans love but do the umps?

[brod]

is hodge a vote getter? He is courageous which fans love but do the umps?

53 career votes
7 last year

[mighty_tiger_79]

thanks brod.

Id be prepared to lay hodge betfair

[brod]

thanks brod.

Id be prepared to lay hodge betfair

Mitchell has always been a better vote getter for the Hawks

[Q.]

Mitchell had a very poor first half of the season and has missed games. I would be very surprised if Hodge was not in the top 3.

[MAY-Z]

is hodge a vote getter? He is courageous which fans love but do the umps?

53 career votes
7 last year

i think he only got 2 votes in their premiership year when he was expected to popll very well

swan is the intersting one when it comes to historical votes - last year he got no where near teh amount of votes he deserved (didnt even get the most for collingwood) but a couple of years ago he got a heap of votes when he wasnt even invited to the medal as he was thought to be no chance

[brent-]

Hodge was injured last year and not playing in the midfield. Different story this year. Historically Sewell and Mitchell have been the best Hawks as far as vote getting goes, but Hodge has had a few years where he has polled 15-16. I'd imagine he'd be in the top 5, probably top 3 at the moment but its very hard to tell.

[Mop Up]

My bets at Round 11
Montagna $10 @ 67 - Into 17 now
Goddard $10 @ 15 - Into 11 now
Chapman $10 @ 41 - Into 25 now
Harvey $10 @ 67 - Into 34 now

[mighty_tiger_79]

harvey at 100 on betfair

[CK]

From looking at stats for the players, watching a number of games, and allowing for "corrections" on previous year's vote tallies (eg. its difficult to think that Swan will poll as badly as he did last year, with not as many rivals for votes like Didak and Davis were in 09), I would have thought the rough tallies for some fancies would be in the region of:

G. Ablett: 12-16 (just hasn't had the same impact this year, and a few quiet - by his standards - last few weeks, despite high possession numbers)

L. Hodge: 14-18 (will have at least 6 games with near definite no votes. Also has some big numbers in early season losses, minimising the chances of 3's)

D. Swan: 15-19 (some massive numbers in wins, which didn't have some of his usual vote takers having big games)

B. Goddard: 12-16 (he is hard to line up. Before last year, had never polled a preference vote in matches, only 3's, for his whole career. Has some early season goal tallies to boost his chances. Will share votes with a lot of teammates, suggesting a few Saints with 10+ votes)

L. Montagna: 14-18 (some of his tallies in games are huge, with high tackle counts and a reasonable free kick differential, but may also suffer from sharing votes)

P. Chapman: 13-17 (Has a big positive free differential: 24-8, with a good tackle count and high ratings in a number of key indicators, like goal assists, inside 50's etc. 4th in league for disposals despite missing a game)

C. Judd: 13-21 (Yes, this is a big range, but he is really hard to line up at the best of times. Opening five games huge, with four of them wins. Has very good possession tallies in some medium to narrow losses, and obviously an umpire favorite, could be at either end of this tally)

Just some thoughts anyway

[brod]

Hodge was injured last year and not playing in the midfield. Different story this year. Historically Sewell and Mitchell have been the best Hawks as far as vote getting goes, but Hodge has had a few years where he has polled 15-16. I'd imagine he'd be in the top 5, probably top 3 at the moment but its very hard to tell.

Hodge had had two good years
2005 - 15
2007 - 16
These two years account for nearly two thirds of his career votes.
Other years
2002 (1), 2003 (4), 2004 (4), 2006 (4), 2008 (2), 2009 (7)

[mighty_tiger_79]

well thats convinced me hodge cant win

[brent-]

Can not see Carlton winning enough games for Judd to win. I reckon Lenny Hayes would be going alright to this point. Has a great history over the last two years with 15 votes in 2008 and 20 in 2009. Could quite easily be on 13-15 by now.

[overloaded]

Judd as if

[CK]

Judd as if

Chris Judd in 2010:

Season Rnd Versus K H D M HO T FF FA G B SC Rat W/L
2010 R16 Sydney 12 16 28 1 0 9 2 3 1 0 6 106 Loss Details
2010 R15 Western Bulldogs 16 11 27 5 0 4 3 1 2 2 14 115 Loss Details
2010 R14 Brisbane Lions 17 12 29 3 0 4 2 1 0 0 0 99 Win Details
2010 R13 Fremantle 13 17 30 3 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 86 Loss Details
2010 R12 North Melbourne 14 9 23 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 69 Loss Details
2010 R11 Melbourne 12 10 22 1 0 7 2 0 1 0 6 95 Win Details
2010 R10 West Coast 18 7 25 4 0 10 0 1 2 1 13 130 Win Details
2010 R9 Hawthorn 19 11 30 5 0 7 0 0 0 2 2 124 Loss Details
2010 R8 Port Adelaide 16 11 27 6 0 8 0 0 1 0 6 126 Win Details
2010 R7 St Kilda 15 9 24 4 0 5 0 1 1 0 6 98 Win Details
2010 R6 Collingwood 15 22 37 5 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 110 Loss Details
2010 R5 Geelong 14 13 27 3 0 5 4 0 1 1 7 108 Win Details
2010 R4 Adelaide 14 16 30 3 0 9 2 2 1 0 6 121 Win Details

Collingwood R6: Loss by 53 points
Haw R9: Loss by 50 points
Nth Melb R12: Loss by 29 points
Fremantle R13: Loss by 9 points

[overloaded]

You can have $21 Judd with me if you like. PM me