are sturt gone ?? can they make finals ??

[whufc]

For as bad as Sturt have gone they are only 3 points from being in the top 3.

[on the rails]

Looking at Norths draw compared to Sturts you'd have to say they have an easier remaining draw, so of the sides outside the five they are the one most likely based on the draw.

Not ruling either of them out for finals in 2010, as we were in a worse position with respect to wins:losses in 2007 and managed to make the finals

We do have what appears to be an "easier" draw but the way the season has gone for just about everyone except Centrals -anything could happen on a given day and don't forget, it is North we are talking about so I am not going into any game with any great confidence to be honest.

[Bluedemon]

season over, plan the September holidays now.

[Voice]

WE'RE ****!
But for some reason this thread is the 10th time today that I've been told we have to win 7 of our next 11 to make the finals. It's not AFL. You can make it with 8-9 wins in this league meaning we only need to win 5 of 11.
Anyway, as I said, we're ****.

Voice, you wont make the five this year with 8 wins and a draw. Nine (six more wins) and a draw, maybe if you're lucky but to be safe you'll need 10 wins. Your draw could prove very handy or could result in tears at the end of rd 23.

So you can be 3 wins and a draw at virtually halfway (9 games played) and only be 1.5 wins from top 3 but you won't make finals this year with 8.5 wins. Sorry if that makes no sense to me am Bays

[am Bays]

Voice, nowhere in my posts have I said you won't make it. All I've said is it is going to be difficult especially with your draw (a view shared by a high ranking SANFL offical I spoke with at Noarlunga two weeks ago). And whilst some sides have made finals with a less than 50% success ratio over a season it is also true that teams with 10 wins over a year have missed out because the clubs in 8th and 9th have won so few games (Glenelg 2006). So my point about making finals is that six wins from here on end will not guarantee you a finals spot.

I think you (sturt) are capable of making them, you need to look no further than Glenelg 2007 for a team in worse position than you at this stage of a season who managed to at least make it to the 2nd week of finals. If I was a Stirt supporter 9and thank god I'm not) I wouldn't be given up on the season like a few of my Sturt supporting colleagues here at work have.

[Bluedemon]

am bays on current form we are way off, alot needs to change at Unley for us to be even looked at a possible threat.

[Voice]

Voice, nowhere in my posts have I said you won't make it. All I've said is it is going to be difficult especially with your draw (a view shared by a high ranking SANFL offical I spoke with at Noarlunga two weeks ago). And whilst some sides have made finals with a less than 50% success ratio over a season it is also true that teams with 10 wins over a year have missed out because the clubs in 8th and 9th have won so few games (Glenelg 2006). So my point about making finals is that six wins from here on end will not guarantee you a finals spot.

I think you (sturt) are capable of making them, you need to look no further than Glenelg 2007 for a team in worse position than you at this stage of a season who managed to at least make it to the 2nd week of finals. If I was a Stirt supporter 9and thank god I'm not) I wouldn't be given up on the season like a few of my Sturt supporting colleagues here at work have.

My query was not whether you think we'd make it or not, it was as to why so many people think you can't get in with 8.5 wins for the season. It happens most years and I haven't heard a decent argument yet as to why it wouldn't be able to happen this year.

[Grahaml]

You never know with this comp. Even Port might start to come on and make a real run in the second half of the year. A few wins in a row can make the ladder look remarkably different.

But it's looking less and less likely. That gap between 5th and 6th might just be decisive. Especially when Sturt won so much more of the ball and hitouts. It's one thing to lose when you get less ball, but to get more and lose is a worry. I always think if you keep winning the ball over the course of the game, you'll eventually win out. Do Sturt just lack someone (or a few someones) who can really use the ball well under pressure?

[am Bays]

My query was not whether you think we'd make it or not, it was as to why so many people think you can't get in with 8.5 wins for the season. It happens most years and I haven't heard a decent argument yet as to why it wouldn't be able to happen this year.

Well IIRC most years 8.5 wins will not see you finish 5th. Yes it is possible, but it requires teams 9-7 winning an above average number of games for those positions. But anywho I've gone to the master to see what is the median or mode number of points the team who has finish 5th had since we went to a 20 game (23 rd) season, what the highest points tally has been and what is the lowest points tally of the team finishing 5th http://www.safooty.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=28453.

That will determine what the likelihood of Sturt making the finals is if they only win 8 and half games.

[Mr66]

Yes and Yes
The third question should have been "Are they a credible premiership chance?"
Which the answer is no.

[Squawk]

I’ve looked at the draw for Norwood, West, North and Sturt. I’ve assumed that Central, Glenelg and the Eagles will all finish in the top 5; that South and Port won’t challenge for the top 5; and that therefore Norwood, West, North and Sturt are competing for the remaining two spots in the finals.

Sturt has the toughest draw of those four sides.

All four teams have 2 byes remaining
Norwood and West play 6 games at home and 5 away. North and Sturt play 5 games at home and 6 away.

In the remaining 11 games:
Norwood play twice against Central, Sturt and West
West play twice against Central, Norwood and Port
North play twice against Glenelg, South and Port
Sturt play twice against Central, Eagles and Norwood.

In the final 5 rounds:(ie "the run home")
Norwood play North (h), bye; Sturt (h); Glenelg (a) and West (h) – ie one current top 3 side and 3 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots
West play Glenelg (a); Sturt (h); Port (h); South (a) and Norwood (a) – ie one current top 3 side; 2 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots and the 2 sides currently on the bottom of the ladder.
North play Norwood (a); South (h); bye; Eagles (h) and Port (a) – ie 1 potentially top 3 side, 1 of the four teams competing for 2 finals spots and the 2 sides currently on the bottom of the ladder.
Sturt have a bye in rd 19, followed by West (a), Norwood (a), Central (h) and the Eagles (a) – ie 2 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots and 2 potentially top 3 sides.

Therefore overall and in the last 5 rounds, IMHO Sturt has the hardest draw and North has the easiest draw, of those four teams that include Norwood and West.

[wycbloods]

I’ve looked at the draw for Norwood, West, North and Sturt. I’ve assumed that Central, Glenelg and the Eagles will all finish in the top 5; that South and Port won’t challenge for the top 5; and that therefore Norwood, West, North and Sturt are competing for the remaining two spots in the finals.

Sturt has the toughest draw of those four sides.

All four teams have 2 byes remaining
Norwood and West play 6 games at home and 5 away. North and Sturt play 5 games at home and 6 away.

In the remaining 11 games:
Norwood play twice against Central, Sturt and West
West play twice against Central, Norwood and Port
North play twice against Glenelg, South and Port
Sturt play twice against Central, Eagles and Norwood.

In the final 5 rounds:(ie "the run home")
Norwood play North (h), bye; Sturt (h); Glenelg (a) and West (h) – ie one current top 3 side and 3 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots
West play Glenelg (a); Sturt (h); Port (h); South (a) and Norwood (a) – ie one current top 3 side; 2 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots and the 2 sides currently on the bottom of the ladder.
North play Norwood (a); South (h); bye; Eagles (h) and Port (a) – ie 1 potentially top 3 side, 1 of the four teams competing for 2 finals spots and the 2 sides currently on the bottom of the ladder.
Sturt have a bye in rd 19, followed by West (a), Norwood (a), Central (h) and the Eagles (a) – ie 2 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots and 2 potentially top 3 sides.

Therefore overall and in the last 5 rounds, IMHO Sturt has the hardest draw and North has the easiest draw, of those four teams that include Norwood and West.

We play South two more times as well i think.

[Voice]

My query was not whether you think we'd make it or not, it was as to why so many people think you can't get in with 8.5 wins for the season. It happens most years and I haven't heard a decent argument yet as to why it wouldn't be able to happen this year.

Well IIRC most years 8.5 wins will not see you finish 5th. Yes it is possible, but it requires teams 9-7 winning an above average number of games for those positions. But anywho I've gone to the master to see what is the median or mode number of points the team who has finish 5th had since we went to a 20 game (23 rd) season, what the highest points tally has been and what is the lowest points tally of the team finishing 5th http://www.safooty.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=28453.

That will determine what the likelihood of Sturt making the finals is if they only win 8 and half games.

Obviously my memory isn't as good as I thought it was. My apologies am Bays. I thought it happened more often.

[gossipgirl]

I still think Sturt will make the finals and have an impact. They are still the only side to beat centrals so far this year

[am Bays]

Obviously my memory isn't as good as I thought it was. My apologies am Bays. I thought it happened more often.

No need to apologise, this year could be a year where 9.5 wins is enough to make the finals a la 2008. My point has always been Sturt need to win 7/11 to be reasonably sure of making the finals.

I think they can do it as there best is clearly good enough.

Your destiny is your own hands Voice, beat the likes of Eagles, West, Norwood and North (the sides you're battling with to make the finals and you'll be there.

[Bluedemon]

if Sturt make the Grand Final from the spot they are now, i will run naked around Unley oval.

[Dirko]

if Sturt make the Grand Final from the spot they are now, i will run naked around Unley oval.

Make sure you wear shoes though other wise the dog shit will stick between your toes.....

[Barto]

if Sturt make the Grand Final from the spot they are now, i will run naked around Unley oval.

I for one hope we lose now. Thanks.

[Dog_ger]

The Ghost of Jack has his head in his hands.

Whats up at Unly in 2010..?

[Dog_ger]

if Sturt make the Grand Final from the spot they are now, i will run naked around Unley oval.

I for one hope we lose now. Thanks.

WHEN


GO THE BLUES.