Meanwhile off field the Talia brother who made a bad decision at the end of last year seems to have topped that off with an even worse decision this year, caught with an illicit substance he’s found himself in deep water, again. In an alcove, in a lane, with some coke. My guess is he wasn’t looking for some Southern Comfort to mix it with. *Allegedly, of course*
FNF – Collingwood v North
Kicks off this week with a very important match up. North with 5 losses on the trot need to sure things up with a win, the last month is horrendous so it’s crunch time for the Kangas. A loss to Port last week further eroding any confidence they may have had. The Pies come into this one in some decent nick, a 3 match winning streak halted by a 5 goal loss to the Crows in Adelaide. No disgrace there and they’ve got some forwards presenting to the mids.
North have got a big week at selection ahead, Petrie looks to have the backing of the coach perhaps for better or worse. Goldstein looks like he hasn’t come back from the round 10 game against Sydney when he left the field early with ice on his knee. Since then he’s been down on output and the side is feeling it. Lots of dooms dayer’s in the media and on forums writing this lot off, interesting to see how they go about this weekend. Friday night, all eyes on them and the North spectators will be looking for something to hang their hats on. Line in the sand?
The Pies have got some midfield pressure going and that allows their forwards to have some confidence leading up when they have ball in hand. With the forwards confident of the mids winning it their getting in motion and creating space for each other, no doubt the return of some form to big Cloke is important but that’s not been the catalyst, it’s in the middle with Grundy getting possessions, a little like Trengove at Port he’s not dominating hitouts but he is getting good possession numbers and applying ground level pressure. This is helping Sinclair and Adams in the trenches.
North will go in favourites with the bookies, but not with me. Collingwood by 13 points. ( $1.92 each of two )
Sydney v Carlton –
Looks like the rub of the green is going against the Swannies this year, tight losses to the Dogs and Hawks in Sydney and the after the siren loss to the Tigers has them 5th at 11-5, they could well be 14-2 and clear on top, but they isn’t, I tells ya. Hardly doom and gloom though. The Blues are paddling now, a better effort against the Eagles but it was in Melbourne and the Eagles, well, don’t fly all that well.
Sydney just aren’t having things fall their way in the close ones, but they’re right in 2016 make no bones about it. Rohan had a break out game last week which eased the focus on the goal less Buddy for the first time this year. Still had 19 touches, did Bud, but Frawley blanketed him near goals and Bud had to go high to get his touches. Parker was excellent in the clinches and did what he could to get his team over the line. Jones will be missed across half back for the next few weeks as he comes back from a bad looking ankle.
Perhaps a sign of the future with Weitering going forward after a knock to his leg and kicking two majors. Wayne Carey says if you’ve got any talent you’ll eventually end up forward of centre and this kid has talent in spades. Against the Eagles web it was the dependable half backs in Docherty and Simpson setting them up but they looked a bit toothless up front until Weitering went up there. Several midfielders got forward to kick one and that’s the reason they stayed in the contest.
Sydney too good at home and probably a bit pissy they lost last week. Sydney by 44 points. ( Sydney $1.05 Carlton $10 )
Gold Coast v Fremantle –
The Suns went up to Cairns to face the Doggies and never looked likely. Been a torrid year and one they can’t get to the end of quick enough. The Dockers, much like the Suns, can’t wait for the season to grind to a halt, much like their current game style. Closed the Cats down and were still in it with 5 minutes to play.
Dead rubber so I won’t spend too long here. Both teams decimated by injury and what might have been a ripping top 4 contest when the fixture came out turns to a stinker with very few having an interest in this one. The Dockers have gone to plan A, boring, dour defence to limit the damage. The Suns have just gone back to basics by going long to Lynch and Wright, who I might add will be hard for the Dockers to counter as they struggle for height down back. Might be the difference. Fremantle will look to smother this one across the half back line and give the dangerous GC forwards no room. That’s what this one will boil down to.
If the makeshift Suns mid’s can get over 45 I50’s to Lynch and Wright it will be too much for the Dockers defenders. The key is getting it in there. Gold Coast by 16 points. ( Suns $1.80 Freo $2.05 )
West Coast v Melbourne –
The Eagles get another one at home against a bottom 8 side after just holding on over the Blues at the G. Once again not very convincing when outside of WA. The Demons continued their disgusting run at Etihad, they’re one side who’d rather go to Perth than the Docklands. The Saints kept them as their bitches.
Not sure why, nothing to back it up but my gut feel is the Eagles are a chance to cause an upset in September. The 6 who are right in it are well justified to be ahead of the Eagles and North in the betting, but I think the Eagles could be a smoky from the two who nobody rates. Like I said, don’t know why and I’m most likely wrong. If not for better ball use the Blues would have beaten them last weekend, the only thing the Eagles had more of were tackles, means they had less of the pill.....lucky for them the mids got plenty of it in good places and Cripps, Yeo and Schofield kicked 6 of the sides 12 without a miss. Important finishing in a low scoring game.
And Melbourne have now lost to St Kilda for a decade. A. Decade. Coming back from Darwin to the House of Pain, Etihad, they went in favourites with the bookies, not often the bag men get it that wrong. The toughest road trip in football is the 3km from the G to Etihad, well so it seems, the Demons are rank when the roof is shut. Rank. And last week was no different. Got out to a 18 point lead early and had 400 disposal...but did nothing with them other than give it back to the Saints. Only 4 Demons didn’t give up a turn over. Don’t be fooled by talk of Melbourne improving this year, 7 wins and bar the GWS surprise in round 1 it’s been Essendon, Collingwood (twice ) , Richmond, Gold Coast and Fremantle.
The Eagles at home, too strong for a side who is just not there yet. Eagles by 38 points. ( Eagles $1.14 Melbourne $5.75 )
Bulldogs v St Kilda –
Doggies just did what they had to up in Cairns over the Suns, losing Stringer for a week or two the only lowlight from the trip to the winter warmth up North. Saint Kilda fans lined up at the TAB outlets when they saw Melbourne, coming home from Darwin, as favourites. The Saints could have made it ugly if not for poor kicking.
We know sides coming back from Darwin don’t have a good record, the Dogs are coming home from an equally draining Cairns environment. The Dogs lose Stringer but played Saturday night, the Saints Sunday. Will the travel and Stringer loss impact on the outcome here? It won’t hurt the Saints, that’s for sure. The Doggies are a much better side inside the contest, they win around 20 more contested touches than the Saints on a weekly basis. That’s significant. Both sides score about the same, very much about. Both have kicked the same (205) amount of goals this year. They rank #1 and #2 for disposal efficiency. It’s the Saints on top there. It’s down back where the Saints get hurt. The Bulldogs the second best defence the Saints the 15th best and that’s where it will be won.
The Dogs will notice Stringer missing, especially if they are looking for a big goal in a big moment late as he knows when the time to shine is there but all in all they should be able to score against the suspect Saints back half. Dogs by 38 points. ( Dogs $1.30 Saints $3.50 )
Geelong v Adelaide –
The hoops have been pretty average for a few weeks, the biggest problem the lack of spark up forward or is it the way the ball is coming in? Bit of both, not pretty but you go to Freo and come back with 4 points you can’t complain. They no complain. The Crows kept on keeping on making it 8 on the trot as they beat the Pies by 5 goals at the AO. The run continues and again it’s total team football getting it done.
Just looking a little shaky after topping up over the summer and making it clear 2016 was to be their year. It still could be but some things need to change for that to happen and the first thing they need to do is start hitting the scoreboard. 11 goals against Fremantle, 9 against Sydney and 13 against the Saints with only the win coming over the Dockers. Not ideal in a competition that commands 100 points + to win. Hawkins widely focussed on with his lack of form ( just 8 touches in each of his last 3 outings, 6 goals ) Motlop all out of sorts ( 4 goals in his last 5 matches ) and what is looking like a one man midfield with Paddy doing all the heavy lifting. Need to do what Adelaide does, share the load.
So it’s total team football up against a man who is carrying his side most weeks and it’s Paddy v Crows round II. Adelaide haven’t lost since Patrick came to town 8 weeks ago and they’ve taken their game to another level since then. Sloane is clearly the leading man in the middle and he, like his team, has taken his game up a notch. 2nd in the comp for tackles, 7th for contested possession and he has answered the call for ball inside the contest with Matt Crouch coming along for the ride. It’s given the likes of Atkins and Lyons room to move outside. Again, as noted last week, when the oppo go forward Adelaide’s mids hold across half back and don’t go deep, someone please man them up across the D50!
I’m pretty bullish about Adelaide this week and think they’ll win quite comfortably to break their 13 year drought in Geelong. Adelaide by 25 points. ( Cats $1.75 Adelaide $2.10 and get on Adelaide I reckon )
Essendon v Brisbane – AFL Spoon Day 2016
Now, what to make of this one? The Bombers have been anything but listless, they give a yelp despite being 1-15 . The Lions give nothing. Other than in the pressers where Leppa fires up and the big ginger is hot at the moment. They too, 1-15.
Look away now, keep looking away and don’t come back. Like looking at the sun this one will be, take a sneak peek and then turn the other way before you do lasting irreparable damage. In brief, I think the Bombers will give the Lions a bath, and they’re filthy at the moment so they need it. Numbers suggest this one will be close but anyone who has watched Essendon this year knows they are playing with some heart and with some intent, two things the Lions have been devoid of. Leppa will be very, very keen to get the win here and I reckon his boys will know exactly that in the pre game address and build up. On the flip side cool Woosha knows his unit are desperate at the contest and have some scoring options in form. Brisbanes defence is weak.
Essendon to deliver the most embarrassing of timber cutlery to the Bears of old. Essendon by 19 points. ( Essendon $1.47 Brisbane $2.70 )
Hawthorn v Richmond –
Getting the job done, again. Sydney had the momentum late in the game but when it was needed the star power shone. Burgoyne and Rioli with the last two of the night to take the 4 points from the Swans grasp. The Tigers did it fairly tough against the Bombers, other than a Martin master class it might have been “full Richmond” like and a loss.
The Mayblooms make no bones about milestone games being important to them and with Mitchell bringing up his 300th game this weekend they’ll be cherry ripe to make sure he gets chaired off smiling on Sunday afternoon. Amazing performance by two of the games true stars last week with Shaun Burgoyne perhaps the difference in a top of the table clash that had star power on all lines for both sides. Two super last quarter goals from on or just inside 50 when the game was tough in tight just further demonstrated how bloody good this bloke is. Throw in Cyril’s “McAveney Knee Shaker” and they just get the job done. Don’t underestimate the back half with Frawley ( mentioned here ) doing a ripping job on Franklin. Chuck in another good one from Gibson and the Hawks take the choccies.
The Tigers took all of the 100 minutes to beat the Bombers last week, Martin put on an absolute master class and carried his team over the line. 6 less scoring shots than the Bombers, -7 I50’s and -24 tackles. Dead set lucky to get out of that one. Martin, unbelievable. 43 touches, 14 clearances, 4 R50, 6 I50, 2 goals and some scribes questioning his impact as he went at just over 50%. So what? When you get over 40 and go at 50% you’re doing better than half the Richmond line up. Oh, and a word or two on the retirement of Troy Chaplin. Suck shit. Glad you never made anything of yourself after you jumped off a sinking ship. Stinking rat.
Hawthorn to sure up top spot, staying a game clear. Hawks by 39 points. Look for Siciliy to have a big one. ( Hawks $1.14 Tigers $5.75 )
Port v GWS –
Go Ports. Midfield stood tall, forwards kicked truly and the young defence held the Kangas wide and pressured them when they weren’t as Port went under the roof and kept a slim finals chance alive. Not slim was the margin the Giants beat the Lions by, but no real surprise there. One surprise was GWS fans outnumbering the opposition fans, only in Queensland.
Finals were out of reach, then they were a pipe dream, now people are calling Port a chance to dislodge the Kangas in the 8. We’ll know by late Friday night if Port are still in it. Expected several changes this week with some players returning and Ebert, Krakouer etc have strengthened the side but it might be too late. Schulz bagged 3 last week to give his career a glimmer of going on another year, Boak and Gray continued their good form and young Austin down back kept Petrie pretty well out of the game. He’ll probably get Patton to deal with this week and Austin needs to spend a summer with me, I’ve found it easy to add 4-5 kg’s in a summer. It’s what he needs to do. Bulking phase I call it.
Interesting assignment for the Giants, they’re a genuine top 4 chance, top 2 even, if they are they must win this one. Albeit a different opponent their last trip to AO wasn’t pretty and they looked completely out of sorts. They’ve got some continuity from Patton and Cameron up front, Palmer is a pain in the arse as the defensive small forward, Shiel is just all class as are several of their other young guns, Kelly and Greene in that bunch. Mumford is getting first hand on it but his possessions are slowing up, he was doing both in spades in the early part of the year.
GWS should be favourites to win this, you’d expect them to be too clean for Port who turn it over too much and good sides kill you when you cough it up. But, they don't travel well at all. 0-3 at Adelaide Oval. Stone cold 4:40 time slot, I do however have a free 3 hour drinks package at the game. Won't be cold.
Port by 8 points. ( Port $2.20 Giants $1.68 )
