Trader wrote:Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.
Is it though?
I agree it's higher than a 'fleeting contact', but sitting in a room for a number of hours with an active case wouldn't be unsimilar to having cases all around you.
Even if we then look at a country where it did get out of control and it was everywhere and the 'exponential' factor might be at play.
India.
31.6m cases, 1.366b people = 2.27% catch it. - possibly not the best example as their testing rate would be low so could easily be double or triple the number of actual cases (if not more).
America, a basket case according to many on here, they hit 10.6% of the population caught covid.
Spain 9%
Brazil 9%
UK 8.4%
Italy 7.1%
Germany 4.4%
Russia 4.3%
No doubt the 7.5% I used was based on a small sample size and shouldn't be considered the definitive answer, but based on the above countries where it did get out of control and was wide spread, I'm not sure the 7.5% used in my calcs is all that bad an assumption.
*dissimilar
If course it is exponential, if one person gave it to 16 people, then it would be safe to assume the those 16 people would have given it more than 16 other people should they have been allowed to "run wild".
Those countries you mention all put in measures to restrict the spread of covid, not just "let it run wild".