Coronavirus (Covid19)

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Spangas » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:21 pm

amber_fluid wrote:Are there any females in the world that enjoy mornings?
They’re all the same.

My missus is out the door for a morning run with the dog every day about 6 am. Would be great, but she never takes the kids :lol:
I apologise.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:23 pm

Spangas wrote:
amber_fluid wrote:Are there any females in the world that enjoy mornings?
They’re all the same.

My missus is out the door for a morning run with the dog every day about 6 am. Would be great, but she never takes the kids :lol:


Actually my wife does the same thing and runs with the dog each morning.
Mine you she comes back as grumpy as when she left.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Lightning McQueen » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:27 pm

I often ask the wife on a Saturday morning to think of all the things I could do wrong for the weekend and tell me off in advance for them so we can get it all out of the way with early and enjoy the rest of the time.
HOGG SHIELD DIVISION V WINNER 2018.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Dutchy » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:29 pm

WFH today with both kids and the wife home, think Ill head to the office next Tuesday :roll:

Lightning McQueen wrote:I often ask the wife on a Saturday morning to think of all the things I could do wrong for the weekend and tell me off in advance for them so we can get it all out of the way with early and enjoy the rest of the time.


If I won $1m today, my wife would ask why I didn't win $2m.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Lightning McQueen » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:38 pm

Dutchy wrote:WFH today with both kids and the wife home, think Ill head to the office next Tuesday :roll:

Lightning McQueen wrote:I often ask the wife on a Saturday morning to think of all the things I could do wrong for the weekend and tell me off in advance for them so we can get it all out of the way with early and enjoy the rest of the time.


If I won $1m today, my wife would ask why I didn't win $2m.


My wife wouldn't know until 13 months later when I send her a postcard from the Bahamas.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Pseudo » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:54 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:
Dutchy wrote:WFH today with both kids and the wife home, think Ill head to the office next Tuesday :roll:

Lightning McQueen wrote:I often ask the wife on a Saturday morning to think of all the things I could do wrong for the weekend and tell me off in advance for them so we can get it all out of the way with early and enjoy the rest of the time.


If I won $1m today, my wife would ask why I didn't win $2m.


My wife wouldn't know until 13 months later when I send her a postcard from the Bahamas.


<ring, ring>

<ring, ring>

Hello?

Hey honey it's me - fantastic news, I WON THE LOTTO! Pack your bags!

Oh wow, that's brilliant darling! Should I pack for warm weather or cold?

I don't care, just be gone when I get home.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:20 pm

Transmission modelling report here:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10218v2.pdf

Zero chance that current social distancing measures in place will be lifted by end of April.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jim05 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:36 pm

Q. wrote:Transmission modelling report here:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10218v2.pdf

Zero chance that current social distancing measures in place will be lifted by end of April.
Care to summarise Q?
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:41 pm

We report an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels. This suggests that a compliance of below 70% is unlikely to succeed for any duration of social distancing, while a compliance at the 90% level is likely to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions


Basically we need a 90% lockdown for at least 3 months.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:50 pm

Jim05 wrote:
Q. wrote:Transmission modelling report here:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10218v2.pdf

Zero chance that current social distancing measures in place will be lifted by end of April.
Care to summarise Q?
I’m in a meeting and getting dirty looks fo reading my phone


It models the application of social distancing (SD) measures, ie. if, we were 70% compliant (not good) with SD versus 90% compliant (good).

It tracks it over a 13 week period, then tracks transmission if SD is lifted at the end of 13 weeks (not good in any scenario).

Look, the massive weakness in the report is that it is relying on international data to make predictions on what is currently happening in Australia. Australia is definitely tracking very differently to northern hemisphere OECD countries, even more so if you break it down state by state. For instance, what happens to SA if we maintain 90% SD, widen testing criteria, maintain strict contact tracing & isolation for positives, and for the final four weeks of a 13 week period we have zero new cases? Could we loosen some of the SD measures within the State?
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:53 pm

4 new cases in SA today.

1 linked to the Ruby Princess. 1 linked to the Airport cluster. 1 is being investigated as a community transmission.

89 listed as recovered.

18 cases in ICU. 6 critical.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:57 pm

we do share the concerns expressed by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: “The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity”


Translation: This Social Distancing lark only delays the inevitable. You're all going to get it, it's just a matter of when.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:59 pm

Trader wrote:
we do share the concerns expressed by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: “The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity”


Translation: This Social Distancing lark only delays the inevitable. You're all going to get it, it's just a matter of when.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:05 pm

Trader wrote:
we do share the concerns expressed by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: “The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity”


Translation: This Social Distancing lark only delays the inevitable. You're all going to get it, it's just a matter of when.


It's not a lark. Restrictions buy time (to increase response capacity) and, as I mentioned above, the report has no local data.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:07 pm

All I got out of that report is that this is going to a loooong road, and it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel right now. :(
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:13 pm

The Bedge wrote:All I got out of that report is that this is going to a loooong road, and it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel right now. :(


Yeah, it's gonna be a long ******* winter :(
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby RustyCage » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:24 pm

Booney wrote:4 new cases in SA today.

1 linked to the Ruby Princess. 1 linked to the Airport cluster. 1 is being investigated as a community transmission.

89 listed as recovered.

18 cases in ICU. 6 critical.
Where is that info from? Looking at https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/home/dashboard gives different stats
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Brodlach » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:40 pm

RustyCage wrote:
Booney wrote:4 new cases in SA today.

1 linked to the Ruby Princess. 1 linked to the Airport cluster. 1 is being investigated as a community transmission.

89 listed as recovered.

18 cases in ICU. 6 critical.
Where is that info from? Looking at https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/home/dashboard gives different stats


That is what SA Health released
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Brodlach » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:42 pm

Spargo wrote:Starting to hit home at my work. Rock up this morning & 3 blokes I was talking to yesterday - gone. Just like that. Two of them had no idea it was coming. Let go at end of the day, f#cking awful.


7:41pm. We get a delivery at home from Star Track :shock:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jim05 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:48 pm

Brodlach wrote:
Spargo wrote:Starting to hit home at my work. Rock up this morning & 3 blokes I was talking to yesterday - gone. Just like that. Two of them had no idea it was coming. Let go at end of the day, f#cking awful.


7:41pm. We get a delivery at home from Star Track :shock:
2nd busiest day of the year through the network. The drivers will make some good coin today
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