by OnSong » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:17 am
Balaklava Cup Day! Good luck all
Race 1
1300m Maiden
Going with Angaston on top, seemed to stick on ok behind a good one in Defiant Dancer last start. Should get a sit behind Dubai House, which I expect to lead, but question whether it will see out 1300m first up. I like the look of a very green Oolong Gaze in its last run at Oakbank. If Sweeney has got it going straight, think it has plenty of upside. Jive Baby was honest enough last start at Gawler, just wondering about backmarkers on this track. If anything is making ground, Sowpods is a chance to sneak a place.
Tips: 1, 6, 4, 8.
Bet: Angaston should give you a sight for $3, small nibble EW on Oolong Gaze ($6.50) for the thrillseekers.
Race 2
1600m Maiden
Interesting market here with Elevenbee making its Oz debut. Travis Doudle bought it from NZ and he has some form doing this, with Jaguary impressing in its handful of starts in the past month or two. Market has it favourite with this in mind and some ability over the longer distances in previous starts. I’ll be watching on pace runners closely in Race 1 and if not much is making ground, consider Sassy Raider for an EW ticket. Sirius Journey also seems to be making progress and can improve further from its first run back from a freshen up. Wasn’t much between Chapette and New Testament last start but Chapette is half the odds. Not keen on either of them, nor Ironic Smile, which goes up 4kg.
Tips: 1, 6, 7, 4
Bet: Sirius Journey ($8) EW if the on pacers are holding ground.
Race 3
1050 Maiden
I loved the way Star Parfait went in its recent trial, seemed to be under a hold at the line and showed good early toe. Olive Grove also trialled up well, running WNC but cruising to the line. Kiroshima draws a barrier at last, has race fitness on its side but seems to find the last 100m a bit tiring. Same can be said about Nic’s Secret. One at odds I don’t mind is Cadelle, which travelled pretty well for second behind Sisstar (admittedly under a hold) in a recent trial. Stalagmite ran 4th in that trial and went on to get a second at Gifford Hill on Sunday.
Tips: 9, 5, 7, 2
Bet: Star Parfait ($3) to win, small EW on Cadelle ($20)
Race 4
1200m BM60
There’s a few here you’ve got to be fairly forgiving with to consider, given the market has them relatively short. Expect Apalachian to find a much better sit with Crowther on board this time around. Bwuva back in class and better for the run. Finding it hard to line up the rest, although I have seen Perfek run an ok race at odds here before.
Tips: 2, 1, 8, 5 - then 7
Bet: Wide barrier concerns me with Bwuva but has class, leaning Apalachian ($2) but not keen on going big.
Race 5
2200 BM60
I always find it hard to line up Chilean Wonder, form fluctuates like a yo-yo but out of the Grant Young stable, has to be respected. There’s word from the SA Footy camp that Aliris is primed for this one. Sagaab’s form improved last run under heavyweight conditions, while I’m interested to see how Todd handles Rock On Ivy, which was part of a Grant Young F4 here a few weeks ago. Money for Comfort Man too.
Tips: 2, 5, 7, 9
Bet: Track suits on pace = Chilean Wonder ($3.30), track even = Rock On Ivy EW ($7)
Race 6
1400m BM56
One that jumps out at me is Sylvan Crest, back in class with a good barrier draw. Oh So Unfair was a former blackbooker and has performed well in classier races. Doesn’t mind firm ground either. Not jumping out of my skin to back Miss Brixton here either. Forgive Miss Harmonium for last run? Hahndorf is an ok horse but would want $10+ to back it here. Look for Mabel Josephine late if track is even.
Tips: 2, 7, 6, 4
Bet: Sylvan Crest ($6)
Race 7
1050m Open Handicap
Domination trialled nicely alongside Parisfal, a Flemington winner, and its form since joining Grant Young has been very impressive to say the least. All Over Bossanova looms as the main danger. Really building an appreciation for the Will Clarken stable and he brings Columbia here in good order. Raquel Clark also hops aboard Tequila Time, and that’s always a good sign.
Tips: 5, 2, 11, 8
Bet: Going with Domination ($8) EW.
Race 8
1600m Balaklava Cup
I know Shrouded In Mist galloped the track on Saturday and after being trapped 3WNC against both Tatoosh and Wasabi Bob, it’s some value if you can get an EW quote. Wasabi Bob plummets to 51kg with Jerry Chau aboard. Charossa the class on pacer here, but back in distance which does cause concern. Still, like it to be there in the finish. Loved the way Dexter You Devil found a way late in its most recent win, while Waging War’s 1L loss to Behemoth was very credible.
Tips: 3, 1, 9, 5, 2
Bet: Charossa under $5 doesn’t inspire me value-wise. Will take EW odds about Shrouded In Mist instead ($8.50).
Race 9
1600m BM60
By now, I’m tired and at this point of the day, it’s genuine getout stakes. Since lobbing a $20 shot in the last a few years ago with a throw at the stumps by just backing 7, I’m going to do it again. Ballast, a winner at Quorn last start, will upset everyone here.
Tips: 7
Bet: Ballast ($20). Why the F not?
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!