Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[Brodlach]

Seabrook unlucky, crowded for room to run home hard for third

[Spargo]

Belflyer thankyou very much!!!

Backed it at $41 last week, couldn’t believe today’s drift. So I backed it again at $41 then again at $51 then again at $61
Needless to say the boys golf weekend I’m on has now escalated quite quickly...

[Brodlach]

Three of my favourites running today

Seabrook
Trapeze Artist
Snowbrook


Praying for a miracle all up

Got two legs @ $181 in a place all up

[Brodlach]

Allergic way overs @ $91

As is Mandylion

[Brodlach]

Allergic way overs @ $91

As is Mandylion

I meant way unders

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Victorem in the Kosciuszko.

Who is B Looker? Think that was the first time he's ridden anything bar a hurdy gurdy

[LPH]

With Scratchings effecting Total Outlay yesterday:
1 Collect: Siege of Quebec
Loss: 26 Units

Balance after 5 weeks: MINUS 93.5 Units
Would be fair to say; "I need a few Exotics to help the respectability"

How impressive was Yucatan? WOW!
Big Statement here: Winx is no certainty in Cox Plate - Overseas Raiders?

[JK]

Had a good day yesterday, but kicking myself for missing Belflyer, couldn’t remember why it seemed familiar, should have checked in here yesterday morning lol

[LPH]

Le Romain was my 'big bet' for the day - $6 Place on SB
That hurt.

[daysofourlives]

Belflyer thankyou very much!!!

I also backed Fundamentalist, geez it couldve been a massive day

[JK]

Belflyer thankyou very much!!!

I also backed Fundamentalist, geez it couldve been a massive day

I backed Amphitrite but mate at our punting day was on Fundamentalist and was pretty wounded.

That (former) prick Williams never rides winners when I back his rides but I jagged 3 of his on Sat .. I’m sure normal service will resume fairly quickly

[OnSong]

Nice rundown LPH.

I don't follow much in Melbourne but I get on board the SA runners who head over there.

Being my home track, I study the form out of the Balaklava Cup meet and follow the horses from there.

Given the leader's bias that day, there has been some great form coming out of horses which didn't win on the day.

Tonight @ Cranbourne
R2) Mutheera started short at Balaklava from the McEvoy stable and was knocked off before going real close at Bendigo last start. Will jump around even money and rightly so, highly rated.

R7) Pretty Punk was finishing with a flourish in the Balaklava Cup (7th), and backed it up with second over 1800m in the Tokyo City Cup at Morphettville. Ben Allen gets the ride, don't think the 2000m will be an issue and is around the $4 mark.

Saturday @ Caulfield
R6) James McDonald and Smart Melody. They're flying.

Saturday @ Morphettville
R6) Live Fast, what a great name. Sadly, yet to perform for Gary Searle after arriving from Qld, but after a disappointing Coopers Sprint (1050m) on Balaklava Cup day, showed reasonable improvement in a 1200m BM86 at Morphettville going down by 2L. Kayla Crowther gets the ride, bit more weight - thus the $61 price - but if it can keep improving, it's in the race. Small speculative bet for me.

R7) I don't think you can go past Petrelle at $3, with Holy Blade, Carlingford and Lope De Capio as some value runners in exotics.

Saturday @ Royal Randwick
R7 Everest) I've been following Jungle Edge and Viddora for some 18 months now. That's where my money will be, along with Shoals (SA), Santa Ana Lane (love my lawn) and Redzel (tipped it here in this event last year).

Sunday @ Cranbourne
R10) Vinland was short on Balaklava Cup day for McEvoy stable, another beaten favourite, before crossing to win a midweek race at Flemington, while I've been an admirer of Wassergeist, which comes in as bottom weight and really can make up late ground over 1400m. Looks a good EW chance.

Mutheera: Beaten fave yet again, running third. FFS
Pretty Punk: Fourth, hit the front 100m to go. Maybe the extra distance hurt.
Smart Melody: Outclassed, outgunned. Disappointing.
Life Fast: Success story, ran 3rd @ $11 the place, not far off the winner either. Watch for its next run.
Petrelle: Not sure if Froggy butchered it (second) but geez, how it didn't win, I'll never know.
Viddora: Credible effort in boggy conditions. Ran similar race to Vega Magic but finished well ahead. Winner too classy.
Vinland: Scratched by McEvoy with track getting firmer throughout the day. Nominated for Murray Bridge Friday.
Wassergeist: Didn't get a run either. Nominated for Pakenham Friday.

[Brodlach]

Smart Melody should go no further that 1200m

[Lightning McQueen]

After having a good run for the last month I had a crap day Saturday on the punt, this was largely due to the missus being away and me being too pissed to study the screens, form and jockeys thoroughly as I went away from my usual criteria, in hindsight my usual style would've seen me do well.

I'm now on a two week pub and betting ban.

[Spargo]

I'm now on a two week pub and betting ban.

That won’t hurt ya, mate.
I went 16 years without a bet or a beer...














Then I turned 17

[Lightning McQueen]

I'm now on a two week pub and betting ban.

That won’t hurt ya, mate.
I went 16 years without a bet or a beer...














Then I turned 17

Late starter???

Wife emailed me yesterday afternoon "Take Friday week off, the day after your birthday, the Gawler Cup is on, I'll take you there"

13 days it will last then.

[JK]

Does your missus have any single sisters? (asking for a mate)

[Lightning McQueen]

Does your missus have any single sisters? (asking for a mate)

Not at the moment.

[LPH]

20/10/2018 (Posted 21:00pm Thursday)

Caulfield Cup Day!
Having performed incredibly poorly so far this Spring, with only a single winning week out of 5, I am in desperate need of some good dividends. Fortunately, these popular Race Days provide big pools in the Exotics – perhaps my best chance of ‘clawing’ my way back from certain bankruptcy is to ‘nail’ a big Trifecta or Pick 4. Pie in the Sky perhaps, but desperate times call for desperate measures!

The Caulfield Carnival continues & both Godolphin & Aiden O’Brien continue to ‘loom large’ in taking OUR biggest races & prize money! Thank goodness for Chris Waller & Darren Weir, eh? Not to mention Lloyd Williams – how good was Yucatan? All things being equal, he runs Top 5 in the Melbourne Cup, doesn’t he? He did cop a 2 kgs penalty for that win but WOW, that was some run! Provided he gets a reasonable gate, he goes very close to winning the ‘big one’ IMHO. Anyway, to this week…

Caulfield – MR 8 – The Caulfield Cup 2400m

You all know about my ‘early speculator’ on Homesman – so no need to outline that I think he can win the race, despite last week’s poorish run. That said, he has a much better gate this week (4) & he will get a much easier time getting to the fence from the jump. The $26 & $7.25 I got after the Valley run, I’m very happy with now! I still think he can win this race because he is so well weighted here. 6kgs under WFA is a huge advantage for this front running bloke – fingers crossed.

Looking at the rest of the field, dismiss O’Brien & Goldolphin at your peril – as shown last week. The long lay-offs between runs, or the travel to Australia, don’t seem to trouble these European runners much, it appears. Off the short back-up, Cliffsofmoher gets a fine Aussie Jockey in Hugh Bowman & gate 5. He is a genuine winning chance but might be better suited over 2000m rather than 2400m, but he goes into all Exotics. As does the Top Weight, Godolphin’s Best Solution. The gate is the worry. Do they go forward or back? The Godolphin runners have generally gone forward this Spring, making their own luck (& winning a number of races!). At time of writing, I am unsure of his racing pattern, so I am going to assume he’ll go back from gate 17, but who knows.

Ace High has the right profile to win a Caulfield Cup, having been a top staying 3 yr old & he has run well in all 4 starts this time in. This is his distance range, with a good gate & Oliver in the seat, I can see him running top 6 for sure. He’s a bit short at $11 IMHO, I’ve got him as a $15 chance, but I am wary of this fellow. You know he will run the trip, so again, he goes in all Exotics.

Red Verdon (2nd) beat Cliffsofmoher (3rd) at Royal Ascot in June & meets him 2.5 kgs better at the weights here. That said, he is 1st Up in Australia, & I do like them to have had a run here before I’m prepared to back them. Interesting runner – Ed Dunlop is a very good trainer of stayers.

Youngstar has no weight with 51kgs & ran an absolute treat at Flemington last start, narrowly beaten by Winx, under Handicap conditions. She drops 3.5 kgs on that run & has that ‘Mare type profile’ that wins these Spring Handicaps. She gets in light, McEvoy in the seat & she makes her own luck from the front 5 or 6 going out the straight. Provided she can get in 1 off the fence, she has a tremendous chance of going very close to winning this race IMHO. She ran really well in Brisbane over the Winter Carnival & that augers well in the Spring Cups. She’s short in the market at $6 but I give her a realistic chance of not only running well, but winning the race.

Of the rest, Kings Will Dream has to also be given a chance of winning, but he’s too short for me to back at $5.

Having already backed Homesman, I am not backing any other runner, & I’m thrilled with the gate because he gets to a great position going out of the straight the first time.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 6, 13, 16, 18 (42%) for 5 Units
Pick 4: 2, 13, 18 / 1, 2, 6, 13, 16, 18 / Field / 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 16, 18, 19 (4%) for 8 Units

Caulfield – MR 5 – The Ethereal Stakes 2000m

Yulong Meteor appeals to me highly as an Oaks chance in a few weeks. She probably goes back from the gate & will need luck to find a way through traffic in the straight, but if Walker can get her into ‘clear air’ at the 300m mark, I can see her storming down the middle of the track late. At the Powered $22 & $4.80, I’m happy to back her.

Backing: Yulong Meteor 3 x 7 Units

Caulfield – MR 7 – The Coongy Cup 2000m

Trap for Fools looks the obvious here. He has been running in good quality races over the past two starts, registering a sound 5th in the Turnbull Stakes behind Winx & Youngstar – if not beaten well, having led the race. He’s the likely leader here too. I expect him to get quite a soft lead out of the gate & probably takes a 3 or 4 length early lead while the rest of the field sorts itself out. I reckon he runs top 4. If he got out to Even Money the Place, I could easily have a big ‘go’ on him, but that’s unlikely.

The favourite is the Godolphin runner, Best of Days. The difference here is the trainer & a ‘local’ having run well behind a good one here last start. Too short for me. Also give chances to Prized Icon & Sixties Groove, while the mare Savomare, ran 2nd in this race last year.

I’ve settled on the Waller runner, Life Less Ordinary. This race is by no means his ‘Grand Final’ & I want to follow him throughout the Spring – I think this one could well be a Sandown Cup winner a week after the Melbourne Cup Carnival ends – might even get a run in the Geelong Cup or The Lexus. $11 Powered & $3 Place is OK at this point, but might just hold off until Saturday, probably get better than that.

Backing: Life Less Ordinary 1 x 5 Units

Caulfield – MR 9 – The Tristarc Stakes 1400m

This is an interesting mares race over 7 furlongs at set weights. This is a classic Sydney vs Melbourne Mares race, leading into the Myer Classic over the Mile, on Derby Day – no Markets out yet for that, so can’t get any guide here.

I actually collected last week on Booker - & those who have read my previews know I’m a fan of her. She’s on the quick backup here & should be thereabouts in the lead group. She loves the track, so she goes in Exotics for sure.

I am also a fan of the Sydney Mare, Prompt Response. She makes her own luck from the front & if she gets a ‘soft’ lead, she’ll go close to winning here. She’s got that Winter ‘Queensland Form’ that I like so much, running 2nd in the Dane Ripper, then winning the Tatts Tiara 2 weeks later. Is this the same preparation, with the Myer in mind? Stable mate Shoomukh, probably comes across, so Prompt Response doesn’t get it all her own way in front, but we saw last week how stable mates can help each other. Perhaps she sits behind Shoomukh, getting a ‘cart’ around the bend. The $11 Powered & $3 the Place is nice, particularly the Place Dividend.

Invincibella is a classy mare who should be finishing hard, if she can get a clear run in the straight. She’s the one to beat, no doubt, while the 2 roughies Bring Me Roses & Freehearted might cause a boil over. The later got no luck last time, so forget she went around. If she’s close enough on the turn, as the leaders ‘fan’, she could get a run through along the rail. She’s not out of this.

Backing: Prompt Response 1 x 6 Units

Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 13 (35%) for 4 Units

Caulfield – MR 6 – The Caulfield Classic 2000m

I have to have a small bet of Visao, due to the loss in Sydney. Never on the track & gets a much better gate here. Still on the Derby trail, I think. He will be happier running left handed & I just have to ‘stick’ after backing him last start. It’s a gamble, but considering my current position financially, I am prepared to take the $34 Powered & $6 Place.

Backing: Visao 1 x 4 Units.

Caulfield – MR 10 – The Moonga Stakes 1400m

He’s Baaaaacckkkkk. Yes, the Place Punters Pal, Tom Melbourne. Back him at your peril, but he is 6/4 the Place & makes his own luck from the front of the pack. The pace will be on in this race, so I’m looking for something to finish hard from the back of the field.

That said, Dream Force will be hard to beat here – quality galloper & 2nd Up record is very good. He’ll take some catching, but might get a torrid time in front & too short for me to back. Another with a realistic chance of winning IMHO is Bjorn Baker’s Music Magnate. Should get a nice run ‘in transit’, midfield, off the pace. Baker is very under-rated trainer IMO, watch out over the ensuing weeks as I think he’ll pick up a good race somewhere.

I’m going with the Stradbroke form here & want to back the top weight, Crack Me Up. 3rd up & with pace on up front, he should be running on over the final furlong. At the price, hoping to finish the day well. I really like the Place Dividend here, $16 Powered & $3.80 is right in my ‘betting range’.

Backing: Crack Me Up 1 x 5 Units

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 (35%) for 4 Units

There you go Lads, another bumper Rant this week.
Despite the financial position, still loving the quality racing.
Enjoy the Day, thinking of heading to Morphettville again this week.
Until next week at The Valley…

[OnSong]

Murray Bridge
R1) Had a good look at 9 Resista and think EW odds certainly appeals.
R2) 6 Quaffany comes out of the McEvoy stable as a beaten short priced fave at Balaklava Cup day. Really short race here, wary of taking the shorts but looks the quality selection here. No bet for me.
R3) No bet
R4) 5 Karaoke Express has shown good form out of the Balaklava Cup Day meet, placing in each race and has built fitness to challenge here. $5-$6 is good shopping. Value runner is 9 Midsomer Barnaby, which is the only horse in Deane Pannell's stable. The distance suits and I've won more than lost backing this brave fella EW at odds.
R5) 1 Love Club, 2 Swipe Me Right and 3 A Little Chunky look the main hopes but I'm a fan of 6 Aspalis after landing her at 30/1 in August. Should be hitting the line hard late.
R6) 1 Eclair Choice looks a good prospect from the Phillip Stokes stable at $3.
R7) 3 Domination won in dominant fashion for McEvoy on Balak Cup day but like many winners from that meet, has struggled to recapture the form. Goes in favourite, which needs to be respected, but I don't mind 5 Vivaldi's Quest and 8 Quiddick to give it a run for its money.
R8 MB CUP) Again, got my Balak Cup hat on here and 1 Temps Voleur should run top 4, 2 Silvera a 3 Modulate will be right up there, respect 6 Special Diva and 7 Excites Zelady as chances, 11 Vinland is a strong chance to win if the track remains a Good 4 and doesn't firm up further, while 13 Awake In Grinzing can add some value if it doesn't miss the kick from barrier 2.
R9) 1 Wanted By All and 14 Hikaya look a little better than 9 Iron Max.