Port Adelaide 2017

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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby valleys07 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:41 am

AA ruck debate aside, Paddy was sensational for us yesterday.

On stats alone, it is hard to look past Grundy or Kruezer for AA.

I have been on the Grundy wagon for a while now but the gap is closing, Kruezer has been outstanding over the past 5-7 weeks.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Stumps » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:25 am

grundy best in comp for me
Gun
Stumps....
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Jim05 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:30 am

valleys07 wrote:AA ruck debate aside, Paddy was sensational for us yesterday.

On stats alone, it is hard to look past Grundy or Kruezer for AA.

I have been on the Grundy wagon for a while now but the gap is closing, Kruezer has been outstanding over the past 5-7 weeks.

Funny that many people including myself don't rate Bellchambers at all but he pantsed Ryder a few weeks back and beat Grundy on Saturday.
Kreuzer would be my AA ruckman at this stage with Paddy next
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Rik E Boy » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:50 pm

Kruezer for mine.

regards,

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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby GWW » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:20 pm

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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Booney » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:55 pm

Stumps wrote:grundy best in comp for me
Gun


Grundy is not a gun. He's capable but no gun.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby morell » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:10 am

People need to watch more games and stop looking at over aggregated data. And that's me saying that!

Paddy Ryder, as a ruckman, has the most influence on his team winning of any in the AFL. His taps to advantage aren't just taps to advantage, they're often perfectly positioned down the throat of a fast paced moving midfielder resulting in a clean centre clearance tap to advantage. If there was a stat called "taps resulting in clean clearance" - anecdotally Ryder would be winning it. It's like the difference between getting an uncontested kick on the back flank as opposed to winning the ball in a critical forward line clearance.

Saying Ryder averages less hit outs therefore he's not as good is massively over simplistic. Do we say a player is better than another because they average more disposals? Is Tom Mitchell a better player than Dustin Martin? No. Of course not.

Hitout and Clearance stats are hard to analyse because of the nature of our game. A ruckman might clearly win a hitout but because of the bounce of the ball or a flat footed midfielder, still lose the clearance. So I look at hitouts like tickets in a clearance lottery. If you win the hitout, you might have a couple more tickets. Win a hitout to advantage, a couple more, win a clean one and hit a team mate, a couple more again. If you added up all of the lottery tickets Ryder has provided the Port midfielders and then looked at their outcome, it becomes a bit clearer - Port Adelaide are 2nd in the AFL for clearances.

The fact Port are 4th and Kruezer's Carlton and Grundy's Collingwood are 15th and 16th respectively is perhaps unfair but it adds to the analysis. Ryder has been the difference on multiple occasions this year. Stepped up when it really matters. West Coast kicked 7 goals in a row on the weekend - Ryder then took 2 or 3 contested marks, kicked a crucial goal, to really stem the flow and get us back into the game.

Because of all of the above, Patrick Ryder, dear folk of safooty.net, is your 2017 All Australian Ruckman as of 11 July.

Just ask his opposition:

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2 ... er-is-no-1

Adam Simpson wrote:"Ryder's the No.1 ruckman in the comp at the moment, he'd be an All Australian straight-up selection in my eyes"
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Rik E Boy » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:46 pm

morell wrote:People need to watch more games and stop looking at over aggregated data. And that's me saying that!


The fact Port are 4th and Kruezer's Carlton and Grundy's Collingwood are 15th and 16th respectively is perhaps unfair but it adds to the analysis. Ryder has been the difference on multiple occasions this year. Stepped up when it really matters. West Coast kicked 7 goals in a row on the weekend - Ryder then took 2 or 3 contested marks, kicked a crucial goal, to really stem the flow and get us back into the game.



You've just contradicted yourself a bit there. The ladder placings add nothing to the argument. Carlton are almost on square one of their development and they've beaten GWS this season. I'd have Ryder ahead of Grundy as Boon has but without looking at any stats at all I'd say Kruezer has the bigger impact. Ryder has been more than handy but Kruezer is a menace.

regards,

REB
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby morell » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:25 pm

Rik E Boy wrote:
morell wrote:People need to watch more games and stop looking at over aggregated data. And that's me saying that!


The fact Port are 4th and Kruezer's Carlton and Grundy's Collingwood are 15th and 16th respectively is perhaps unfair but it adds to the analysis. Ryder has been the difference on multiple occasions this year. Stepped up when it really matters. West Coast kicked 7 goals in a row on the weekend - Ryder then took 2 or 3 contested marks, kicked a crucial goal, to really stem the flow and get us back into the game.



You've just contradicted yourself a bit there. The ladder placings add nothing to the argument. Carlton are almost on square one of their development and they've beaten GWS this season. I'd have Ryder ahead of Grundy as Boon has but without looking at any stats at all I'd say Kruezer has the bigger impact. Ryder has been more than handy but Kruezer is a menace.

regards,

REB
Aggregated means summed up. My example was granular. But that's splitting hairs. The overall crux of my argument is that seasonal hit out data means 2/5ths of **** all when evaluating rucks. If we want to use aggregated data - use clearances, as that's what ruckman are trying to manufacture. Winning a hit out but losing the clearance is pointless.

Ladder placements have to be at least considered. In an even season if a ruckman has massively influenced their team to such a degree that they have one, two or three more wins then IMO that's a pretty big tick in their column. Ryder has done that.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby bennymacca » Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:47 pm

So how many games have you watched of other teams Morrell?

My guess is not many, yet you are arguing that if only we watch paddy more that we would see how good he is.

Classic supporter bias. You are arguing he is more important to port than what other players are to their teams. Which may be true. But that doesn't automatically make him all Australian
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby The Bedge » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:04 pm

I think Ryder has been super, I think he should be in AA calculations.

It's not just his ruck work, it's his ground ball work, his ability to drop back in defense and take contested marks/intercept marks and also his ability to go forward and kick goals.

He's taken the most contested marks for a ruckman in the comp - more than twice that of Kreuzer, averages more hit outs, averages 3.3 one percenters a game, 2.9 I50's a game, more centre clearances, more contested possessions and a far greater disposal efficiency than Kreuzer.

Doesn't mean i think he's better than Kreuzer either - Kreuzer is having a huge year, i just don't think peoples calls towards Ryder being AA ruck are totally outrageous.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby bertiebeatle » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:07 pm

bennymacca wrote:So how many games have you watched of other teams Morrell?

My guess is not many, yet you are arguing that if only we watch paddy more that we would see how good he is.

Classic supporter bias. You are arguing he is more important to port than what other players are to their teams. Which may be true. But that doesn't automatically make him all Australian


Bit rich coming from you regarding supporter bias!
He once again proved on Sunday he is the best ruckman in the comp at the moment.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Wedgie » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:11 pm

morell wrote:If we want to use aggregated data - use clearances, as that's what ruckman are trying to manufacture. Winning a hit out but losing the clearance is pointless.

Geelong are neck and neck with Port on clearances and GWS are comfortably in front. Using your theory Ryder is no better than Smith or Stanley and Mumford ahould be the AA Ruckman.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby morell » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:13 pm

bennymacca wrote:So how many games have you watched of other teams Morrell?

My guess is not many, yet you are arguing that if only we watch paddy more that we would see how good he is.

Classic supporter bias. You are arguing he is more important to port than what other players are to their teams. Which may be true. But that doesn't automatically make him all Australian
Does Adam Simpson have supporter bias?

If you think I can't be critical of Port then you really haven't been paying attention.

and I watch most games most weeks.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby morell » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:14 pm

Wedgie wrote:
morell wrote:If we want to use aggregated data - use clearances, as that's what ruckman are trying to manufacture. Winning a hit out but losing the clearance is pointless.

Geelong are neck and neck with Port on clearances and GWS are comfortably in front. Using your theory Ryder is no better than Smith or Stanley and Mumford ahould be the AA Ruckman.

Yeah look that's really not what I am saying at all but keep on keeping on.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby morell » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:53 pm

Just as an aside. Coaches MVP as of Round 16 (an award that should be rated much more highly)

Ryder - 47 and the leading ruckman
Kreuzer - 41

Must be more of that pesky supporter bias sneaking in.
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby human_torpedo » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:25 pm

While I think Ryder is certainly right up in the mix for AA, with Kreuzer atm, with Grundy behind those 2.. The real story here is Morell dismissing stats as irrelevant and not the basis of the argument!! Goes against literally everything you have ever said on here, ever..

Everyone has some form of supporter bias. While Adam Simpson wasn't supporter bias as such, Ryder had just towelled his side up so it was fresh in his mind, and they haven't played Carlton yet, so Ryder was probably the best ruckman he had seen this year. Which is probably correct
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Wedgie » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:34 pm

Anyone seen this?

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/ratings-hub

Interesting that Ryder isnt rated in the top 10 ruckmen in the comp. He's 15th! :shock:
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby morell » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:35 pm

human_torpedo wrote:The real story here is Morell dismissing stats as irrelevant and not the basis of the argument!! Goes against literally everything you have ever said on here, ever..
Stats back up the argument that Ryder is the best ruck in the comp. My point was people using or misinterpreting bad stats.

Bad stats are bad mmmkay?
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Re: Port Adelaide 2017

Postby Jim05 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:37 pm

morell wrote:Just as an aside. Coaches MVP as of Round 16 (an award that should be rated much more highly)

Ryder - 47 and the leading ruckman
Kreuzer - 41

Must be more of that pesky supporter bias sneaking in.

Just like the Brownlow though I've found the winning side more often than not gets the most votes.
I have Kreuzer slightly ahead at the moment but those 2 are clear daylight ahead of the rest and there could be a argument that both make the AA side
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