3/ 11/ 2016
So here we go again, no sooner does Cup Day end (of which I had a pretty good one, I don’t mind saying – Flippant winning for us was superb, having seen the Replay of the race, it won like a good thing!) & what a good Cup it was this year.
‘Hutchy’ on Get On is fast becoming the star tipster to follow – wouldn’t surprise me if they ‘move him on’ (like they did ‘Racetrack Ralphy’) for being too successful. After all, the Bookies run the Channel & the Show. Pays to make hay whilst the sun shines & follow him.
So to Oaks Day: Only betting on the one race on Thursday – he says, knowing full well that he’s more likely than not to bet on other races
But with all good intentions, here’s my Preview of the race:
Flemington Race 8 – The VRC Oaks
Have a look at the field Lads – THE best named Filly in the race is the bottom one “
Penthouse Kitten”, out of Pentire by Scattercat…
I love witty owners!!! Gold!
The obvious is
Yankee Rose – all things being equal, she wins.
But as you know by now, I can’t take those short odds, particularly over the 2500m. So I’m looking elsewhere. When the price is so short in these Group 1 distance races, I am reminded of the ‘unbeatable’
Whobegotyou getting rolled by a 100/1 shot a few years ago in the Derby.
On the Cox Plate run, you have to say she’s the ‘one’, but an extra 500m & 8kgs adds SOME doubt IMHO.
The weather forecast is fine, so we can assume a Good 4 again.
The form lines of those in the field with a winning hope, says they either ran on Saturday in the Wakeful &/or the Ethereal on Caulfield Cup Day – the one that didn’t run Saturday is the Hayes runner Harlow Gold, she ran in the Vase on Cox Plate Day against Boys.
The winner will come from No.s 1 to 9 (big statement, I know)
I believe
Barriers play a big role in this race (& the Derby) because of the short run to the Winning Post at Flemington – the Speed Map suggests that Harlow Gold & Bella Sorellastra get the runs of the race on the fence, midfield, so both must be considered for Exotics at least.
No. 4 goes back to the tail of the field No. 9 pushes forward, 1, 3 & 6 have a choice to make – whether to push forward or go back. I think 1 & 6 push forward, which might mean they are a bit wide going around the 1st bend, meaning they will use up some ‘petrol’ early, whist I reckon
Sebring Dream goes back.
The Kiwi Filly
No 5 Elenora should lead early but I reckon Ollie will steady her up & give up the lead heading into the back straight.
I can see her sitting 3rd on the fence at the 1400m. She’s a winning hope IMHO & she could well look the winner at some point in the straight.
I want something on her – boosted Odds of $12. I also want to back
Sebring Dream in the race - I can see her ‘peeling’ out around the 300m & following Yankee Rose into the straight. I would want $2.70 the PLACE to back her. Backing
Elenora 2 x 5 Units.
Exacta: 3, 5 / 1 for 3 Units.
Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8Looking forward to Saturday too, now.
I will be at the Cross Country of the 3-Day Event this week (no doubt keeping an ear on the Races from Flemington at the same time
)
Hopefully, there's no bloody loser Protesters!