Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[helicopterking]

MR5#12/ 1,2,4,14
MR7#6/2,7,12,10
MR8#2/ 6,8,11,4

[LPH]

Great Ride!!! Got $6 & $2.20 this morning... Trifecta is a bonus too

[LPH]

Another Box Trifecta ... not a great divie, but the $3.20 on He or She was nice. I guess I'll have to accept that BHB is as good as they say, now.

[helicopterking]

Another Box Trifecta ... not a great divie, but the $3.20 on He or She was nice. I guess I'll have to accept that BHB is as good as they say, now.

BHB was brilliant. As was Hellbent in the last.

[mighty_tiger_79]

**** hellbent
Took a cheap quaddie
Only had 1,6 in last leg

[LPH]

WooHoo... just booked & paid for my Reserved Seat @ the Caulfield Cup Meeting
$150 is a little steep, but GA = $55 ($65 on the day) - I get a Race book & a Beer + at least I can see the entire Race!

[stampy]

how many races will we get thru at nazza this arvo?

[LPH]

01 / 10 / 2016

Sydney’s biggest day of their Spring Carnival – Epsom Day. Looks like the weather forecast is OK for the program, so I think we can bet with a bit of confidence that the track conditions will be OK – working on a Good 4 or a Slow 5? This should mean most runners will get a fair chance to win.
Think I’ll bet early, so I can just enjoy the AFL Grand Final & not worry about having to ‘chase’ or ‘get out’.

Sunday’s Turnbull Stakes meeting @ Flemington looks a Good Day too, weather appears OK & because Flemington ‘drains’ so well these days, I reckon they’ll be racing on a Good Track.

Randwick Race 7 – The Epsom 1600m (Randwick Mile)

Waller dominates the race with almost a ¼ of the field. Weir sends Palentino north to contest the race & Godolphin have just the 1 runner. Interestingly, very little comment around about Gai’s runner – considering her record in Randwick Mile races over the years.
I am prepared to risk Palentino – I think he’s a Flemington specialist. I realise Weir wouldn’t send him to Sydney if he didn’t think he can win & his distance record is excellent, but he’s never raced this way of going & I think he’s a risk @ the $7.50.
I think Hauraki can win he race. He drops 3kgs from WFA last start & his record @ the track is very good.
That said, as always, I won’t be backing him @ that price, but he MUST go into any Trifecta Bet.

I’m backing Le Romain Eachway – I’ve been with him all Spring so far & see no reason to get off. He’s a very honest performer & with Bowman in the seat & his love for this Track, I’m happy with the Odds Boost $15 & the $4 the Place is also good – Backed him 1 x 4 Units.
Am wary of Fabrizio – due to the ‘Gai factor’.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 13

Randwick Race 8 – The Metrop 2400m

Once again, Waller dominates with 6 of the 13 runners. Quite frankly, One would be a fool not to have a ticket on a Waller horse in any race 2000m or greater – he’s just such a great Trainer of Stayers. I guess when assessing this race each year, the Punter is torn between considering which of the runners (if they run well) will go on to the Caulfield Cup in 2 weeks, & those that won’t, having targeted this race as their GF.

From the former perspective, only 11, 12 & 13 haven’t won @ the Mile & a Half – so I’ll remove them.
If we assume that ideally (in the CC) the runner should be 4th or 5th up in order to ‘peak’ for the race, then that removes 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 …
That leaves us with 1, 2, 3, 4 & 11. From the later; 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12

I like them leading into a Caulfield Cup, so of the 5 listed, I’m backing Storm the Stars @ the price, 1 x 3 Units, & he’ll appreciate the weight drop. I think Who Shot the Barman is the best-credentialed runner & the way he finished off last start was very good. I was a Grand Marshal fan but I don’t think he’s the same horse without Jimmy Cassidy riding him – that said he was unsuited by the ‘sit & sprint’ race last start when Hartnel blew them away. Besides, I think his GF is the Melbourne Cup. Interesting Race.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11

Randwick Race 6 – The Flight Stakes 1600m

The Mile race for the 3 yr old Fillies. I am a Yankee Rose Fan, but I’m gunna bet against her in this race. I’m looking for some value.
I know she comes out of a better form race & if Omei Sword was running, then she’d be the favourite not Yankee Rose.
But I am always looking for value. With only the 6 runners, I’ve backed Sezanne.
Of those runners in the Tea Rose over 1400m, she was a bit unlucky when looming into the race.
The ‘blanket finish’ suggests that the ‘price differential’ between her & Awoke, is enough to have a small WIN bet on her.
Taking a Quinella with the Fav, as well as the 6. Also an Exacta: 5 & 6 / 1…
Strategy: 3 Units Win No. 5; 5 Units Quinella 1,5,6; 2 Units Exacta 5 & 6 / 1

Sydney Quaddie (15%) Don't usually do Quaddies, but because there's no main meeting in Melbourne, might take this one:

R6: 1, 5, 6
R7: 2, 3, 7, 8
R8: 1, 2, 4, 5, 12
R9: 2, 3, 11, 12, 13


Flemington (Sunday) The Turnbull Stakes 2000m

What a fine run by Jameka to win last start & gain automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup. She would have to be a genuine Top 5 chance in that race, as she’s very nicely weighted & in fine form. I reckon that Cairon Maher will not expect her to work too hard tomorrow, & will want the Stablemate to do well (I’m a little biased as I’ve backed her for the Cup).

This race is very competitive on Sunday, with many chances.
Hartnell’s previous run in Sydney was awesome but way too short IMHO for this race. No doubt Godolphin think he’s a genuine Caulfield Cup horse & that may be true, but I can’t back him @ even money, not with the quality in this field.
The United States can win the race & I personally think he’s a ‘place special’ – if I can get 6/4 the place, I’ll load up.
He’ll appreciate the wide straight @ ‘Headquarters’ & I can see him looking the winner a Furlong from home.

I’m backing Set Square (surprise, surprise) – she loves Flemington, she hasn’t had a lot of luck this time in & like The US, I think she’ll ‘fly’ the last Furlong. I can see her getting up on the line, & the $41 Odds Boost on Ladbrokes is too juicy to pass up – Win & Place 1 x 4 Units.
Really looking forward to this race. Could tip 6 or 7 of them & still miss the winner.

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10

Enjoy a HUGE weekend of Sport this week, Lads.
Hopefully I can get some money in the ‘kick’ for the Caulfield Cup in 2 weeks – really looking forward to experiencing my 1st race day @ Caulfield.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Moonee Valley tonight
1-4 ew is my best
Followed by
2-6
8-4

[JK]

Great preview LPH, outstanding!! I'm on Fabrizio in the Epsom, but who knows, lot of class getting around this time of year. Good luck to all having a crack this weekend!!

[mighty_tiger_79]

Last night a disaster.
First one just sat out wide in no man's land.
The last one got boxed up on the fence and caught behind tiring horses before flashing late just behind placegetters

[JK]

Unfortunately I didn't realise it was running around last night so missed it, but how did Benz look?

[gadj1976]

Mr 1 7
Mr 2 1
Mr 4 3
Mr 5 13

Sr 7 4
Sr 8 5

Astern into Hartnell into Ulmann

[LPH]

Flight Stakes Quinella pays $6... Exacta Pays $16.80

Sooooooo close to the Quaddie

[stampy]

Unfortunately I didn't realise it was running around last night so missed it, but how did Benz look?

it won, so musta gone ok

[mighty_tiger_79]

Did it look good or just avg???

[mighty_tiger_79]

Flemington

2 - 12
4 - 7
8 - 9,14
9 - 11

of course Jameka goes in again $$$$$

[gadj1976]

Mr 1 7
Mr 2 1
Mr 4 3
Mr 5 13

Sr 7 4
Sr 8 5

Astern into Hartnell into Ulmann

Third
First
Third
Third

Nothing
First

Astern got done, so nada there.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Hartnell

Wow

[mighty_tiger_79]

hartnell


wow