Now come on, what are the AFL doing scheduling an Essendon Friday night game? Yeah, sure, the fixture was out prior to the CAS findings but how hard is it to move a Saturday or Sunday game to the Friday night? Now we have the unenviable task of staying awake through this FNF fixture. Unlikely, it is most weeks when the “Frothie Friday” comes along but this one will be extra sleepworthy. Really should have organised a catch up with mates for Friday night, perfect opportunity to make the Mrs feel like you given up the footy to spend time with her. Opportunity lost.
( PS – The betting I note is from Crownbet at the time of writing )
A couple of things from last week. Tom Hawkins gets a week for that? Let’s not be stupid. Clarkson managed to have a crack at one of his own players, the AFL and the government in one sentence! No wonder he’s the little master.
Essendon v Hawthorn –
Pretty poor performance from the Bombers last week, undermanned is one thing but not giving a yelp against a fellow battler is another. Whilst the chances of them beating the Dockers were slim, they gave nothing. The Hawks took a while to shake off the Demons, they eventually did but it wasn’t overly convincing. Still, 8-3 so...
I think these pretty listless efforts from the Bombers group will become more regular as the year wears on. Plenty of the older bodies will be getting tired, mentally too. The kids who aren’t battle hardened will struggle and the load carried by a few keys up the spine will take its toll. Pretty much got belted by a team yet to win and bar the efforts of Goddard, Daniher and Crowley against his old side it may have been much, much worse. Nice touch by the Dockers faithful giving Crowley a hand as he left the field. Footy needs that sort of thing.
Wasn’t a great day for footy as the Hawks went at Melbourne. The Hawks had hard bodies Mitchell, Lewis, Gibson and Birchall enjoy the slog but they came up on the wrong side of the clearance ledger. Outworked in and under for the first half the Hawks needed to use all their professionalism to scrape the 4 points out of this one. They did with Gunston and Breust again the keys up forward, Puopolo chimed in with an important one late after some good work by Rioli and young Stewart on debut drew a “shit” free kick, not me calling it shit the umpire tweeted as much! Again, footy doesn’t get hurt by that sort of thing. Clarkson acknowledged the young guy led with the head and rightly so he doesn’t like the look of players going bonce first for frees.
Yeah, nah, we’ll take it one week at a time. Hawks will just do enough here without over doing it. Hawks by 44 points. ( Hawks $1.01 Essendon $22 – yes, that’s correct )
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs –
Port made it two solid wins on the trot by downing the terrible Collingwood outfit by 10 goals plus. Some run from defence coming into Ports game. The Doggies took on and beat a fellow top 8 side by holding out the Eagles. Only 8 points, but the stats tell a different story.
The Pies jumped Port early and that was the only yelp as Port took control and led at every break eventually running out winners by 67 points. A couple of players who have been in and out over the last few years have taken the opportunity presented with injuries and suspensions and run with it. Paul Stewart and Cam O’Shea in defence, Aaron Young and Jarman Impey up forward and Sam Gray in the middle have all had time in the SANFL of late but have all taken a spot and made it theirs. Run from defence the key to Ports game and the likes of Pittard, DBJ and Hartlett are generating that run. The forwards are enjoying the slicker ball movement and the little blokes congregate around Dixon who draws 2 or 3 opponents. Big week for Charlie, after a sound game last week that was goalless I think he’ll want some majors to reward his hard work.
The Bulldogs are clearly stating system over personnel in the back half. They’ve not missed a beat since losing Murph and Johannisen and maintain their miserly defensive set up. They let in just 69 points per game on average and sides struggle to get the ball deep against them. Many goals scored against them are from 40m+. They smashed the Eagles last week around the contest, 35-30 clearances wasn’t the killer, 153-114 contested possessions was. With 124 more possessions the Eagles did well to stay within 8 points. So it’s the mids doing the hard work but don’t discount the work big men Redpath, Campbell and Roughead do in the air. They’re creating just as many headaches as Libber, Hunter and Wallis are.
I’ll go to this one with some optimistic thoughts, but know the task is ahead of Port to score against this defensive unit. Dogs by 16 points ( Port $1.82 Dogs $2.00 )
Brisbane v Fremantle –
Another salivating proposition this one. Brisbane didn’t offer all that much against the Blues and went down by 38 points and the Dockers registered a win pretty much by default as the Bombers came to town. 20 more I50’s should get you the points most weeks.
Talk on C7’s “Talking Footy” that the Lions may come cap in hand to the AFL for a priority pick at the end of the season. Now, if you keep making rubbish decisions in regards to recruiting and coaching appointments it isn’t up to the AFL to dig you out of it. Even if they do give you a priority pick that pick might just be ready to get the hell out of there in 3 years time anyway. Bad news for Justin Leppitsch with the chief slating him in as the coach for 2017....*first nail*. More injury worries too with Christensen to miss a month with a broken collar bone. On the lighter side big Jono Brown had his daughter tell him that she now barracks for Carlton as “The Lions lose too much”. Going rough when Carlton is a better option* ( Comedy effect, Carlton are on the improve )
Any tanking talk was put to bed last weekend and I loved Lyon’s response, “One pick isn’t worth destroying a culture for”. Excellent answer. But it raises a series of questions. If they weren’t indeed tanking how did they become so shit so quick? Other clubs lose soldiers and cover the losses, so why hasn’t their “system” stood up? The ultra defensive game plan was over taken last year by the all out attack of the Dogs, Hawks, Roos and Eagles so the plan had to change. Were the players listening over summer? So many questions, so little care about the answers.
Brisbane are a different proposition at home, the Dockers can’t be trusted. Anyone got any ideas on who to pick? Send them to
thisgamedoesntmatter@nobodywillbethere.net Brisbane by 4 points. ( Brisbane $2.25 Fremantle $1.65 )
Geelong v North Melbourne –
The Catters got back on track last weekend, a win over fellow top 4 aspirants GWS gives them some momentum heading to the bye weeks, another big game this week. North made a statement last weekend, Friday night in Tassie and they mauled the Tigers.
Now come on, Tom Hawkins gets 2 weeks down to 1 for THAT! The MRP have seriously hurt the Cats in a game that might make or break their top 4 chances. Seriously wrong call. After a couple of slightly down weeks the skipper stood tall last week when his side needed him. An amazing last quarter from Selwood as he propelled his side over the line. Possessions, clearances, tackles, score involvements, 77 ranking points in a quarter whatever that means....massive influence on the outcome of that one. Smith showing why they went after him too. Broke even with Mummy in the hit outs, but 19 possessions to 10 and a goal showed how valuable he can be to this line up. Geelong, you have a ruckman!
North were as good as Richmond were shit last weekend. The Roos started better, ran the game out better and slaughtered the Tigers. In the slippery conditions Wells and Swallow were equally outstanding. Wells outside running and 3 goals, Swallow inside with 19 contested touches and 11 tackles. He’s laid 98 tackles this year, the next best is 85 from Shiels and nobody else is over 80. He’s the heart and soul of this Roos line up. Harvey at his opportune best with another 4 majors and Petrie got his hands on it in the air. Week 3 of the testing stretch for the Kangas. Need Waite to start getting his hands on it again to take some heat off Petrie. Also need Goldy to come up.
Big game for both sides, I think North will show this week that they are indeed a genuine contender by beating the Cats in a close one. North by 9 points. ( Geelong $1.83 North $1.98 )
West Coast v Adelaide –
Another ripper in round 12. The Eagles left home and accordingly got rolled by the Dogs, was a pretty tame effort from the Eagles who got slaughtered in the contested ball. Adelaide made mince meat of the Saints late on Sunday afternoon with the big forwards too much for the Saints to deal with.
A couple of weeks ago it was nothing to see here but surely Simpson and his coaches must be wondering what to do when the side travels. Monsters at home muppets away. But, let’s take into account this. Losses to Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong, Bulldogs away with a win over Port. Wins at home over Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Richmond, St Kilda and Collingwood. Not exactly giant killers at home, are they? This the biggest test for the at home Eagles after picking on road kill in the west so far. The midfield seems to win the contested ball in spurts and the forwards monster the weaker sides. How will this Eagles line up manage the depth of Adelaides mids and forwards?
No. 1 scoring side in the competition, with the likes Jenkins, Walker and Betts all in the top 10 in the race for the Coleman. That’s some serious firepower. Some depth through the middle with Thompson being rested and the side not skipping a beat. 69 I50’s last week and they kept the lowly Saints to just 30, the midfield press worked a treat. No sulking last week as the free kick count was 21-9. Surely a # was in order? Jenkins benefitting most from the modern trend of “out the back” goals as the Adelaide mids get the ball deep, quickly, allowing Jenkins time and space to do his work. He’s proving to be just as clever at reading the play as he is at working hard.
The first real test for the Eagles at home and I like Adelaides chances. I think they can prevail, by 11 points. ( Eagles $1.48 Adelaide $2.65 )
St Kilda v Carlton –
Went from bad to worse for the Saints last Sunday, smashed early and then men down late. Unhappy trip to Adelaide and they lose some key men for extended periods. Carlton marched on, 4 of the last 5 and just a game ( and loads of percentage ) outside the 8 after a solid win over the Lions. Could they? They couldn’t. Could they?
Young forward gun Paddy McCartin went down with a nasty head clash, he’ll miss a couple, Hugh Goddard gone for the year with a ruptured achilles (ouch!) and Reiwoldt corked a knee in the first contest of the match, in reality that’s about the sum of their day. Under 300 disposals (comp avg 378 ) , just 30 I50’s ( comp avg 52 ) shows the dominance Adelaide had over them. Keeping the damage to 88 points in light of all that isn’t too bad! Have a few mids who plug away but missing McCartin, perhaps Reiwoldt from the front half and CHB Goddard doesn’t make for good times ahead. Not this week anyway. One step forward, two back for the Saints at times this year.
It’s now time to stop saying “Carlton are surprising us”. We can all see they’ve improved out of sight, the coach has them playing a style that clearly works against the other sides outside the 8 and it’s just a matter of time and a few key personnel before it works against sides inside the 8. By then they’ll probably be one of them. Weitering, just a gun. He’s come in like a 150 gamer and controls the back half. Bolton can sleep easy knowing the back half is going to get built around this kid. Super impressive. Ex-Crow Sam Kerridge is also making the most of his second opportunity, 30 touches and a goal last week and he’s been pretty consistent.
Yeah, the Saints just won’t win this one. Carlton by 38 points, they’ve won the last 4 over the Saints. ( Saints $2.35 Carlton $1.60 )
Richmond v Gold Coast –
Like the Tigers of old, hey? They were pretty insipid against the Roos in Tassie, some soft wins over bottom 4 sides masked the issues they still have. Up on the Gold Coast the Suns, well there was a distinct lack of, were just outclassed in the wet by the Swans.
Damien Hardwick in his usual stand up spot at the comedy club said his men can still play finals, when is he going to stop kidding himself? Season over for the Tigs. With just 4 wins and perhaps 5 at the midway mark they’ll need to win all of the games they play for the year from here on to be any crazy chance. They won’t. Book the holidays for September Tigers fans. They really didn’t have a chance last week though, the Roos were all over them. 94 tackles to the Roos and the Tigers couldn’t handle the heat. Hampson battle against Daw in the ruck, Rance was inundated and they wasted the clearances they won. They won them 43-35 and lost I50’s 41-72. Couldn’t handle the heat.
Pretty horrendous conditions for the Suns last week on the Coast, it’s only in sub-tropical climates that rainfall like that can come down. As expected the Swans handled it and the Suns didn’t. The ball spent that much time in the contest the Suns laid 119 tackles. ( Sydney 135 ). They get some soldiers back this week but clearly not enough to make a huge difference. Sam Day and Tren McKenzie offering some height at both ends of the ground.
Richmond win when they’re playing someone below them, only one game separates these two. Richmond by 21. ( Richmond $1.15 GC $5.50 )
GWS v Sydney –
One of a few really good match ups this weekend. The Giants are on a two game losing streak having succumbed to Adelaide and Geelong away, they need to get back in the winners list if they want a top 4 spot. Sydney on the other hand, as I say often, keep on keeping on. They should have dried out by now, they’d have been water logged after last week.
If not for some Joel Selwood heroics last weekend the Giants may have come away from Cat Park with a win. A couple of points down at ¾ time and they were right in it. It seems Phil Davis is quite punchable, three blokes have been suspended in the first 11 weeks for belting him, he also lost Hawkins late and the big man slotted two important majors. Mumford was well beaten in the ruck and will need to be at his very best up against Tippett this week, that match up will be crucial. The inside mids will also need a big week to match the Swans contested ball beasts. Griffen could be a handy inclusion this week. Looks like the Giants have got a seel out at home too, all 8,356 tickets are sold! ( Or given to corporate wankers for free )
I’ve struggled with filler for the Bombers and Lions this year, it’s getting the same with these guys, I can’t talk them up anymore than I already have. In less than ideal conditions the professionals beat the newcomers, Tippett huge with 50 hitouts, Mitchell, Kennedy and Parker combined for 34 tackles, 200 contested possessions for the group, but numbers are slightly skewed by the water on, in and around the ground. I expect the inside mids for the Swans to be right on their game here, they won’t want to let the Giants outside run get going. Hannebery, Kennedy, Mitchell will all be set for a contest here.
This one will be won in close. The Swans average 20 more contested possessions, the Giants average 20 more uncontested possessions. He who wins it, probably wins it. If you see what I’m saying. Can GWS bounce back or can the Swans keep motoring? I think Sydney too strong inside, by 11 points. ( $1.92 each of two )
Melbourne v Collingwood –
Queens Birthday Monday and the G will be freezing, what an amazing effort by Neale Daniher in the face of adversity. Puts the game into perspective. It is just a game, but it is more than a game, it brings people together in the good times and the bad. I, along with all of you who read this I am certain, wish him a peaceful journey through the next few weeks and months. Neale, I dips me lid to you.
The Dees were ok in patches last week but still have some work to do. They can win the ball, they can score, but they leak in defence and can be ineffective when moving the ball forward. So too can their counterparts, except the Pies don’t really score and they don’t really defend that well either. A short renaissance cut down by injuries to the Pies unit and they make some changes again to try and cover the gaps.
Anyone looking for a key forward, of sorts, Trav Cloke will most likely be on the market in October, just a lazy $450-500k and you too can have someone lacking pace, confidence etc etc. I think he’s been judged harshly of late as in my opinion he’s never been a “great” forward. Career averages of 13 touches, 6 marks, 1.8 goals and 1 tackle per game. Across a season he’s only kicked over 50 goals three times, two of them over 60. Hardly the numbers of the genuine key forwards. Is his time at the Holden Centre up? I’d say so.
Melbourne too good around the ball for the Pies I think, they average more clearances, more contested touches and more hitouts. Max Gawn for B.O.G against the worst hitout side in the league. Melbourne by 33 points. ( Melbourne $1.75 Pies $2.10 )
PAFC. Forever.
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