The South Australian Political Landscape

[DOC]

11,537 ballots outstanding

Liberals need 54.2% TPP of outstanding ballots to win

edit - 4,500 enrolled didn't vote, so, approx:

7,307 ballots outstanding

Liberals need 56.9% TPP of outstanding ballots to win (4,004 from 7,307)

Where is that number (no vote cast) from?

[dedja]

I haven't been able to get that info directly from the ECSA, but it has been reported in The Advertiser (I know, I know).

ECSA know exactly how many voted on Saturday, and the pre-polls, so have to wait until the end of the week to finalise postals. Reconciling those numbers against the no. of registered voters accounts for the approx 4,500 who apparently didn't vote.

I've based my analysis on this 4,500 number, arriving at 3,217 uncounted ballots remaining. The Advertiser is claiming that there are only approx 1,790 uncounted ballots, so I don't know where they got that figure from.

I guess we'll find out in the next few days.

[DOC]

Thanks.

[RB]

I'd expect no more than 90% turnout. Later-arriving postals (cf. prepolls) are usually less Liberal-leaning than earlier ones as well, although there probably won't be too many of them. So Labor still look likely.

[dedja]

Thanks.

Here's the details from The Advertiser

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sou ... d6b761bece

”While ECSA data shows there are 27,108 electors enrolled in Dunstan, only 12,779 cast a formal vote on election day (another 304 cast informal votes that are not counted in the tally).

There were 8022 declaration votes received before Saturday – 2543 postal and 5479 pre-poll.

However, postal votes are accepted until seven days after election day.

The commission received 3829 postal vote applications, which suggests up to 1286 people could return their vote this week.

On those figures, more than 4500 people did not cast a vote in the election – indicating lower voter turnout than at the 2022 general election.

[dedja]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

[Booney]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

This election was stolen.

#MDLA Make Dustan Liberal Again

[RB]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

Yep, I doubt there are many ballots remaining at all - just a trickle of postals. Today's count also favoured Labor very slightly. This one is all over. An extremely rare gain of an opposition seat by a sitting government at a by-election.

[dedja]

All over, Libs have conceded.

[dedja]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

This election was stolen.

#MDLA Make Dustan Liberal Again

It’s been more Labor than Lib during my lifetime, hence the recognition to rename in honour of Do Dustan.

[Brodlach]

Only ended up with 300 votes lead

[dedja]

Only ended up with 300 votes lead

Marshall won by less than that last time.

[Dutchy]

He is terrible, his #1 election promise was to get the on/off ramp at Majors Rd/Southern Expressway done and then when Libs didn't get in and Labor took on the project he flipped and ran a campaign against the ramp!

It is a dumb idea, though

It's only needed one way - to be able to head South or get off when coming from the South, don't see the need for people to get on/off going to/from the city.

Currently anyone in Sheidow Park. Flaggy, H/Valley, A/Park needs to etiher get on at Lonsdale or go backwards down the hill to get on at Marion Rd.

You can get on/off at Old Reynella, which is right next to Sheidow/Happy Valley

You can't head South from the Old Reynella exchange