Albanese Labor Govt Watch

[Jimmy_041]

western australian dictator Macgowan has resigned

Good ****ing riddance
Maybe Andrews and Pallachook can take the hint
Problem in Qld is they will probably get Steven Miles who is a complete twat

[RB]

western australian dictator Macgowan has resigned

Good ****ing riddance
Maybe Andrews and Pallachook can take the hint

I'm not sure what 'hint' you're referring to, as McGowan, Andrews and Palasxckkxkz are all at least reasonably popular in their respective states. Perhaps by 'take the hint' you mean 'follow suit'.

Obviously winning a 4th term is always difficult, and history would suggest that Queensland Labor will have a hard time retaining their majority at the next state election.

[Jim05]

western australian dictator Macgowan has resigned

Good ****ing riddance
Maybe Andrews and Pallachook can take the hint
Problem in Qld is they will probably get Steven Miles who is a complete twat

Andrews ain’t going anywhere.
He has absolutely zero opposition to hold him accountable and Labor will hold Victoria for as long as they want it. The Libs are pretty much a non entity in Victoria and WA and this ain’t changing anytime soon

[Booney]

Struggling to get into the housing market?

Live in a share house or stay at home longer with your parents.

Struggling to pay your mortgage now you have one?

Easy, cut back on spending, get some more hours at work and you'll be right.

[heater31]

Struggling to get into the housing market?

Live in a share house or stay at home longer with your parents.

Struggling to pay your mortgage now you have one?

Easy, cut back on spending, get some more hours at work and you'll be right.

Minimum wage worker.....here you go have a 5.75% increase placing further pressure on inflation!

[Jim05]

Struggling to get into the housing market?

Live in a share house or stay at home longer with your parents.

Struggling to pay your mortgage now you have one?

Easy, cut back on spending, get some more hours at work and you'll be right.

How Albo and Chalmers haven’t sacked this RBA clown has me staggered

[Jimmy_041]

Struggling to get into the housing market?

Live in a share house or stay at home longer with your parents.

Struggling to pay your mortgage now you have one?

Easy, cut back on spending, get some more hours at work and you'll be right.

Minimum wage worker.....here you go have a 5.75% increase placing further pressure on inflation!

Chalmers says it won't affect inflation. AFR are going medieval on his ar$e

[Jimmy_041]

How Chalmers and Lowe differ on the wage and inflation conflict
Jun 7, 2023 – 5.20pm

Treasurer Jim Chalmers appeared to contradict RBA governor Philip Lowe’s view on whether the coming rise in award wages contributed to Tuesday’s latest rate rise. Here’s what they had to say.

RBA governor Philip Lowe: The Fair Work Commission-approved rise in award wages “is just one of the factors” for the rate increase.

“It’s perfectly understandable for the lowest paid workers in the country to be compensated for inflation.

“We will get ourselves into trouble if we accept the premise that all workers need to be compensated.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers: “Rates went up yesterday not because of the budget or because people on the minimum wage are getting paid too much, but because these inflationary pressures in our economy are more persistent than we would like.”

Lowe: “A concern would arise if the 5.75 percent [minimum and award wage] increase became a benchmark, or a quasi-benchmark, for outcomes in private sector wages more broadly.”

Chalmers: “I was pleased to see frankly, the Reserve Bank governor acknowledge today that the important increase to the minimum wage is not what is pushing up interest rates in his estimation, nor is it in my estimation.”

Lowe: “[The 5.75 per cent rise] was higher than we had factored in to our forecasts.”

“How much it adds to the inflation outcomes really depends upon whether it spreads across other parts of the labour market.”

Chalmers: “I come at it a little bit differently in saying that we need to make sure we get on top of inflation so that we get on top of inflation expectations.

“I think we need to be really careful here and not blame workers who’ve got a legitimate aspiration to earn more when they work.”

[Jimmy_041]

Productivity takes biggest hit yet, cash rate tipped to hit 4.85pc

Michael Read
Reporter
Updated Jun 7, 2023 – 4.22pm,

The largest fall in productivity on record and accelerating wages growth will push prices higher and strengthen the chance the cash rate could hit 4.85 per cent, economists say, despite evidence economic growth is slowing.

The economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 0.2 per cent in the first three months of the year, as softening household spending and a fall in dwelling construction weighed on activity, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Economists had expected a 0.3 per cent rise in activity.

The annual growth rate fell to 2.3 per cent from 2.7 per cent, and is tipped to slow further as the Reserve Bank’s most rapid interest rate tightening cycle in a generation forces households to tighten their belts.

Despite the slowdown in GDP growth, the national accounts revealed wage pressures intensified across the economy in March, prompting economists at Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics to revise their terminal cash rate forecast higher to 4.85 per cent.

Interbank futures imply a one-in-three chance the cash rate will increase to 4.35 per cent in July from 4.1 per cent, and are fully priced for a 0.25 percentage point hike by September.

Speaking on Wednesday, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe warned the path back to 2 to 3 per cent inflation would involve a couple of years of weak economic growth.

Dr Lowe said the main upside risk to the outlook for inflation and interest rates was the growing mismatch between nominal wages, which increased by 3.7 per cent over the past year, and productivity, which is falling at its fastest pace on record.

Asked whether the growth in remote working was driving the decline in productivity, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the “productivity challenge” predated working from home.

“I think a lot of people would feel like they’re more productive at home,” Dr Chalmers said.

“A big part of our economic agenda is investing in productivity. Not by trying to make people work longer for less, but by investing in their skills and their capacity to adopt and adapt technology, and to get the energy mix right in our economy.”

“If we do those things, we can shift the needle on productivity, but it won’t happen quickly.”

Dr Lowe said the Fair Work Commission’s decision to raise award wages by 5.75 per cent on Friday was one of the reasons the RBA board decided to lift the cash rate to 4.1 per cent on Tuesday.

Largest annual decline since 1979
The other reasons were the surprise lift in inflation in April, rising federal and state public sector wages and a resurgence in house prices.

“A concern would arise if the 5.75 percent increase became a benchmark, or a quasi-benchmark, for outcomes in private sector wages more broadly,” Dr Lowe said.

Dr Chalmers appeared to be at odds with Dr Lowe, with the Treasurer saying the Fair Work Commission’s decision was unrelated to this week’s cash rate increase.

“I was pleased to see frankly, the Reserve Bank governor acknowledge today that the important increase to the minimum wage is not what is pushing up interest rates in his estimation, nor is it in my estimation,” Dr Chalmers said.

The national accounts, which were released shortly after Dr Lowe’s address, were unlikely to have soothed the central bank governor’s concerns about the growing gulf between wages and productivity.

Output per hour worked, a proxy for labour productivity, fell 0.3 per cent in March and by 4.5 per cent over the past year, which was the largest annual decline since at least 1979, when records began.

The decline pushed productivity down to December 2019 levels.

Both Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics raised their terminal cash rate forecast to 4.85 per cent following the release of the national accounts, suggesting three more interest rate rises could be on the cards.

Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya said labour market data suggested productivity will most likely have weakened further this quarter.

“That in turn will prop up unit labour cost growth and keep services inflation stubbornly high.”

Falling productivity leads to higher unit labour costs, which are passed through to higher prices, and prevents the economy from expanding at a decent pace without generating inflation.

Unit labour costs – the difference between wages and productivity – increased 2 per cent in March after an 11.4 per cent annual surge in the private sector wages bill.

The annual rate of unit labour cost growth accelerated to 7.9 per cent from 6.9 per cent, well above the 3 per cent limit Dr Lowe has previously said was necessary to engineer a return to the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target.

Dr Lowe said ongoing strong unit labour cost growth would prevent inflation falling.

“The best way to achieve a moderation in growth in unit labour costs is through stronger productivity growth, which would also underpin durable increases in real wages and our national wealth and make more resources available to fund the public services that people value,” he said.

ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said the acceleration in unit labour costs would add to the RBA’s concerns about getting inflation back to the target band within a reasonable time frame.

“As we noted yesterday on our expectation for a peak of 4.35 per cent, risks are likely skewed toward the RBA needing to move more than just once more.”

Dr Chalmers’ opposition counterpart, Angus Taylor, said inflationary pressures were “off the charts because productivity is shot”.

“The treasurer needs to focus on doing his job, he needs to take responsibility,” Mr Taylor said.

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said tax reform, incentives for business investment, boosting housing supply and better matching workforce skills to employer demands were among the government-led reforms that could lift productivity growth.

“While productivity growth has been low over recent years compared to its long-run average, part of the problem could be the big rise in service-related jobs ... over the past two years which saw a boom in hours worked could be making the data look worse than it actually is,” Ms Mousina said.

Household consumption soft
While the RBA is struggling to contain inflationary pressures, the national accounts showed higher interest rates were having some success dampening demand.

Household consumption was soft, increasing just 0.2 per cent in the first three months of the year and consistent with mounting evidence that higher interest rates are forcing shoppers to cut back on non-essential purchases.

Discretionary spending declined by 1 per cent in March, while essential spending increased by 1.1 per cent.

Residential dwelling construction declined as higher interest rates and a rapid rise in material costs dampened demand for new homes. Building approvals declined by 24 per cent over the year and dwelling investment is 6.2 per cent below its June 2021 peak.

As the budgetary support from the pandemic runs out, higher taxes and mortgage interest payments reduced the household saving ratio to 3.7 per cent of income from 4.4 per cent, its lowest level since June 2008.

Personal income taxes jumped to 16 per cent of household earnings, a two-decade peak, as wage inflation pushed workers into higher tax brackets. Higher interest rates pushed mortgage interest repayments up to 4.4 per cent of gross income.


Net exports subtracted 0.2 percentage points from growth because of a lift in import volumes, and private investment added just 0.1 percentage points to growth owing to a 1.2 per cent fall in residential construction activity.

In its latest statement on monetary policy, RBA forecast that GDP growth would fall to an annual rate of 1.2 per cent in December 2023.

Ms Emmett said the combination of softening economic activity but still-strong inflationary pressures was making it increasingly difficult for the RBA to bring inflation back to target without a relatively sharp slowdown in economic activity.

“Further monetary tightening is likely to be required to bring down inflation, but households are clearly feeling the pinch of high inflation and higher interest rates,” she said.

Michael Read reports from the federal press gallery at Parliament House. He writes on economics, financial services, and politics. He was previously an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia and at UBS. Connect with Michael on Twitter. Email Michael at michael.read@afr.com.au

[mighty_tiger_79]

Hasn't been a great few weeks for albo

[Brodlach]

Libs complaining that the ALP have comeback early to work on cost of living, saying it’s a waste of taxpayers money (I disagree) yet are ok that Morrison is going to step down and create a by election

[mighty_tiger_79]

Bi elections

No need for them
Unless a reasonable explanation for leaving whoever the opposition is in that seat gets it.

[dedja]

[dedja]

Stage 3 tax cuts

Labor - too clever by half, turning a broken election promise into class war (again)?

Coalition - crocodile tears, when in reality they knew they wouldn’t get them up when proposed in 2018 so pushed them out in order to blame someone else?

[RB]

Bi elections

No need for them
Unless a reasonable explanation for leaving whoever the opposition is in that seat gets it.

I agree that many of them are pointless and the retiring member ought to fill the bill rather than the taxpayer. However...

Who determines what is a 'reasonable explanation'?
Who is the 'opposition in that seat'? E.g. in 2022 there were four candidates for Scomo's seat other than him (ALP, GRN, PHON, UAP). Gets even more complicated when independents are involved.

[Booney]

Stage 3 tax cuts

Labor - too clever by half, turning a broken election promise into class war (again)?

Coalition - crocodile tears, when in reality they knew they wouldn’t get them up when proposed in 2018 so pushed them out in order to blame someone else?

They knew they'd lose.

[dedja]

Bi elections

No need for them
Unless a reasonable explanation for leaving whoever the opposition is in that seat gets it.

I agree that many of them are pointless and the retiring member ought to fill the bill rather than the taxpayer. However...

Who determines what is a 'reasonable explanation'?
Who is the 'opposition in that seat'? E.g. in 2022 there were four candidates for Scomo's seat other than him (ALP, GRN, PHON, UAP). Gets even more complicated when independents are involved.

Not sure I agree with the proposition, but if you were going to change something, then if the sitting member vacates (for an unenforceable non-genuine reason), then award to the candidate who was 2nd on 2PP. As RB states, how are you going to define, then enforce the ‘reasonable’ explanation.

[dedja]

Stage 3 tax cuts

Labor - too clever by half, turning a broken election promise into class war (again)?

Coalition - crocodile tears, when in reality they knew they wouldn’t get them up when proposed in 2018 so pushed them out in order to blame someone else?

They knew they'd lose.

Correct weight.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Bi elections

No need for them
Unless a reasonable explanation for leaving whoever the opposition is in that seat gets it.

I agree that many of them are pointless and the retiring member ought to fill the bill rather than the taxpayer. However...

Who determines what is a 'reasonable explanation'?
Who is the 'opposition in that seat'? E.g. in 2022 there were four candidates for Scomo's seat other than him (ALP, GRN, PHON, UAP). Gets even more complicated when independents are involved.

Not sure I agree with the proposition, but if you were going to change something, then if the sitting member vacates (for an unenforceable non-genuine reason), then award to the candidate who was 2nd on 2PP. As RB states, how are you going to define, then enforce the ‘reasonable’ explanation.

By opposition I guess its either Labor/Libs. The others are time wasters.
Or you give it to who finished 2nd. They fill the remainder of that term and automatically get the next term.

Reasonable explanation would be something that forces them out of any workplace for extended period of time

[RB]

Bi elections

No need for them
Unless a reasonable explanation for leaving whoever the opposition is in that seat gets it.

I agree that many of them are pointless and the retiring member ought to fill the bill rather than the taxpayer. However...

Who determines what is a 'reasonable explanation'?
Who is the 'opposition in that seat'? E.g. in 2022 there were four candidates for Scomo's seat other than him (ALP, GRN, PHON, UAP). Gets even more complicated when independents are involved.

Not sure I agree with the proposition, but if you were going to change something, then if the sitting member vacates (for an unenforceable non-genuine reason), then award to the candidate who was 2nd on 2PP. As RB states, how are you going to define, then enforce the ‘reasonable’ explanation.

By opposition I guess its either Labor/Libs. The others are time wasters.

When you say 'I guess it's either Labor/Libs'... you'd need to have a law which makes this clear. However you can't have a law which gives preference to certain political parties over others. How about in seats where other parties/independents are competitive? Also a problem where you've got both a Liberal and National contesting against a Labor candidate etc. You might think that the others are time wasters but electoral laws favouring particular political parties are third world stuff. Then there's the problem of when the 'opposition' candidate is not interested in filling the spot.

Or you give it to who finished 2nd. They fill the remainder of that term and automatically get the next term.

Probably fairer to do a recount, ignoring all preferences to the vacating member (but full preference distribution of all ballots). (The winner of the recount might not have been the 2PP runner-up).

When you say, 'automatically get the next term', do you mean that at the next election, there won't be an election for that seat? Again, bizarre stuff that belongs in the third world. Especially since in safe seats there'd be no mandate at all, and the person filling the seat would be bound to lose re-election. Depriving voters of the ability to choose their candidate at the next election is a novel concept for sure, but not one that I think would fly with the electorate. (Bear in mind this would require constitutional change.)

Reasonable explanation would be something that forces them out of any workplace for extended period of time

My question was '(w)ho determines what is a 'reasonable explanation'? I agree that a principle like yours above could be agreed to pretty readily. But who determines whether that threshold has been met?

If it's the speaker (the speaker is the official who receives resignation letters from MPs), or a minister/Prime Minister, or person in holding some other political office, then that's ripe for abuse and best avoided.

However if it's an AEC official, other public servant, Governor-General, judge etc., that's also best avoided and those folks hardly want to weigh into political issues (especially as there's likely to be disputes about whether the threshold has been met). Of course if the courts are involved, it's probably cheaper just to have the by-election.

All people running for election should be prepared to stick around for their full term, serious ill health notwithstanding. I just don't think it's possible to design a sensible alternative to by-elections.