Why did Labor Lose Kingston in 2004?

[Sojourner]

The seat of Kingston is the Noarlunga and surrounding suburbs area south of Adelaide. Gordon Bilney won the seat for Labor after relocating from Canberra and saw successive Labor victories in Kingston until he retired when he was eventually knocked off by a Liberal Candidate, Labor won the seat back - David Cox, yet at the last election, Kingston a seat tipped to be retained by the ALP was lost to the Liberals by a few hundred votes and was a seat where the results had to wait several days to come through, the winner being ex SANFL footballer Kym Richardson from West Torrens.

This area has a diverstity of people that live in it, yet is genrally recognised as having a reasonable number of people that are on welfare or work for the minimum wage. The Mitsubishi engine plant closure would have put people out of work in the area and you would think that it would go against the Liberal Party in relation to Tarrif protection, yet clearly it didnt.

So why then? Why did Labor lose in Kingston?

Will they win it back this time around?

My thoughts are that they lost it on preferences, Family First preferenced Liberal and I think that got them over the line. The AOG Church at the Reynella markets gets an average of 2000 at their meetings, and there are various other similar groups in the area, all of whom would have people in them who have switched from Labor and Liberal to Family First.

Resultantly next time around it could well again come down to preferences.

Thoughts?

[PhilG]

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[Wedgie]

Basically Kym Richardson was looked upon as someone who might do something for the community unlike the other 2 who were never seen in the area except for at gravy train openings or when their offices felt like abusing public servants for actually upholding the laws their government originally created.
Also lots of mortgages in the area and most were keen for lower interest rates.
There was also a lot of local issues rather than a federal labour/liberal thing but I would expect this seat to go back to Labor at the next election if some that live in the Hackham and Chrities Beach areas work out which boxes to tick.

[Sojourner]

Good point Phil, yet why do you think Labor lost the above seat?

On your point, I cant quite remember how many votes a party needs to secure a seat in the Legislative Council on their own merits, I think it is 80 000 votes, Family First did 43 000 the first time and Andrew Evans got in on preferences, the second time Dennis Hood got over 60 000 and preferences made up the gap, the question is whether or not they can get to that level on their own to win a seat in their own right like Fred Niles CDP party are able to in NSW. Considering the massive growth of the AOG and similar groups I would think it would be a likely possibility, if they can gain one on their own they can start working towards a second on preferences.

In Victoria Family First were not given preferences from either Labor or Liberal, yet they responded by giving their own preferences to the DLP which combined with other preferences gave them two seats. The DLP being the Catholic version of Family First.

The beauty of that being that there are too many parties for them all to be preferenced last, so minor parties are in a position to begin dismantling the two party system which will be a good thing!

[McAlmanac]

In Victoria Family First were not given preferences from either Labor or Liberal, yet they responded by giving their own preferences to the DLP which combined with other preferences gave them two seats. The DLP being the Catholic version of Family First.

Only one. John Mulholland missed out in a recount.

[PhilG]

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[McAlmanac]

Sojourner, what do you mean "Legislative Council"? Kingston is a federal seat!

He is referring to the upper house in the South Australian Parliament when talking about Evans and Hood.

[am Bays]

As a former voter in that electorate (1990 - 1998) and member of the Kingston young Libs I think Wedgie hit it on the head, mortgages and a strong local candidate got Richo over the line. A grape growing accountant from willunga as a Labor man, talk me through that?? A strong LAbor candidate from Noarlunga & Christies would have seen Labour retain that seat, never going to stay Labor without a good strong local candidate. Jeanes was one of the few 1996 members to get turfed out on the GST concerns of lower middle Australia i.e a seat expected to go under the GST campaign

Kingston is a diverse seat (a bit like Wakefield but not as extreme) conservative South (McLaren Vale Willunga) with a Labor heartland middle (Hackham O'S beach Christies etc)

However a lot of middle ground suburbs like Aberfoyle Park and Hallet Cove.

However I believe it is a seat that will cross back over next election given the relative working class nature of the seat, the IR laws will tip the swinging voters the ALP way compared to their belief that they think they have more chance of lower mortgages under the coalition. Plus a margin of 0.1 % with an expected swing against the goverment and Richo is in trouble despite being seated behind Howard in Parliament.

No point having low interest rates if your can't afford them due to poor conditions.

Forget the ideology of IRAQ, Hicks, education etc, next election to be fought on IR laws and interest rates, which party will give me more in my pocket each payday to spend on my kids......

[noone]

Id agree with that analysis 1980, and if I owned a house id bet it on Kingston returning to the ALP. wether or not the ALP get the swing to get government id be certain that the ALP will take kingston.

[am Bays]

Put it this way noone, if Labour can't win kingston they have no hope of sitting on the right hand side of the speaker.

[stampy]

david cox didnt give a shit hence he lost