13/10/2018 (Posted 21:40pm Thursday 11/10/2018)
At the outset I apologise for the length of the Preview, but there’s so many good races to assess.
Having only managed 1 winning week out of 5 so far this Spring, it is becoming increasingly obvious that I am somewhat flawed in my assessment of race horses! The losing percentage is significant, at this stage, but there are good week is still to come with some interesting racing ahead. Like most Gamblers, I keep coming back for more. This week is no different.
Before I go into the Previews of a terrific (if not difficult) Day’s Racing, it would be remiss not to make some comment about the ‘furore’ over the barrier draw for The Everest & the strange happenings in Sydney this week. At the risk of making a ‘political statement’, the Leftist, Tree Huggers complaining about the ‘Light Projections’ on the Opera House was amusing, if not weird.
Apart from the fact that the venue has had these types of projections on its ‘sails’ before (the Olympic Rings & Mardi Gras to name but two), the irony of the whole ‘saga’ is that the complex was built on the proceeds of gambling – ‘Tatts Lotto’ to be precise. How hilarious then, that the ‘Outrage Police’ would try to sabotage the event! But I digress…
What a ‘bumper day’ at Caulfield with Group & Listed races everywhere!
Caulfield – MR 10 – The Herbert Power 2400mThis is traditionally a very interesting race with many of these expecting to go on to bigger things in the coming weeks. Traditionally, we should not use this race a guide to the Caulfield Cup (next week), as there are few who repeat their form in THAT race. What we can look at is the Melbourne Cup.
With this in mind,
Big Duke comes under notice. He was disappointing in Sydney, but there were excuses – bad ride (3 wide the trip) & he never got out to have a crack at them in the straight. I am prepared to go again on him. Rising Red was scratched from the Bart Cummings last week when I thought he could win, so I am wary of him here.
I ALWAYS respect any Godolphin runner &
Prize Money will no doubt be ‘warming up’ late. One would expect him to go back from the draw & he hasn’t carried a weight this light since he was a 3yr old. I think he’ll be better suited to Flemington than Caulfield, but look for him running on at the end.
Backing: Big Duke 2 x 8 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 13 (35%) for 4 Units
Caulfield – MR 7 – Caulfield Guineas 1600mThis race is nicknamed ‘The Stallion Making Race’. How interesting then that No. 7 & 13 are Geldings (might need their names changed to Jesus Christ if they end up Stallions!) &
Oohood, who is the lone Mare in the race. How short would she have been in the Thousand Guineas?
3 of the past 4 winners of this race have ‘backed up’ from The Golden Rose in Sydney, only last year’s winner did not. As a result of his run in that race,
The Autumn Sun is the rightful favourite here & Waller says he’s one of the best he’s trained.
Pace & luck in running might play a part in the final ‘wash up’. The fav will be running on no doubt, but not sure the shorter straight of Caulfield will be to his advantage. No doubt he’s very good & will most likely go very close to winning the race but I can never take the Odds on, so looking elsewhere.
Of the leaders, Mick Price’s runner
Tavisan might be a chance in the race at $21 Powered & $4.20 the Place. There is doubt over whether he’ll run the Mile, but he’ll be in it for a long way. Another of the ‘go forward’ horses, that will most likely run the trip, is the Weir runner
Leonardo De Hinchi. He’s yet to miss a ‘place cheque’ from his 5 starts, including winning The Stutt Stakes at Mooney Valley, over the Mile last start. Before that run, he was just ‘nabbed’ at the post by Brutal – a horse with big wraps. The same outcome might happen here, with the fav charging home late. Therefore an Exacta bet might be prudent here.
I’ve settled on another here in
Gem Song. He ran a good 2nd in The Dulcify 2 weeks ago over the Mile, beating Purple Sector. That horse ran really well last week & Gem Song drops 3.5 kgs from that run. Running left-handed here might cause him an issue (particularly around the turn upon straightening) so he’s a risk, but at the price of $16 Powered & $3.40 he’s the best value in the race IMHO.
Backing: Gem Song 1 x 4 Units
Exacta: 4 / 1 for 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 8, 15 (83%) for 2 Units
Caulfield – MR 6 – Thousand Guineas – 1600mHaving just beaten
Fiesta in The Flight Stakes to break her ‘duck’, if
Oohood was running here she’d be well in the market, if not favourite, wouldn’t she? As a result, hard to go past the Chris Waller runner. Good gate, good form, good jock – good enough for me!
$16 Powered & the $3.50 the Place is a ‘gift’.
Backing: Fiesta 1 x 5 Units
Caulfield – MR 7 – The Toorak Handicap – 1600mAnother Group 1 Mile race – this time for the older horses.
Hartnell was great for me last start but he’s too short in price for this race & I actually think he’s better suited over further now he’s 8 yrs old – despite the win last start over a Mile in The Epsom.
Jungle Cat was fantastic last start here over the 7 furlongs but he’s never raced further than that distance & the betting drift suggests the ‘good judges’ are sceptical of his ability to win here – I’ll risk him too. Difficult race to assess speed wise as most of the leaders come from out wide. What is the result of that? Perhaps that means the speed will be on from the start, if so, the back markers will be suited – as will
Hartnell because he will run the race out.
Of the leaders, I can see the best advantaged will be the Waterhouse runner
Siege of Quebec. His 7th in The Epsom was pretty good considering the work he had to do early from gate 14. He gets a much easier time of it on Saturday, from gate 8, & provided he jumps well, I can see him 2 or 3 back, 1 out. That’s the perfect spot to attack from & at the $15 Powered & $3.80 is very acceptable.
I feel pretty confident (not that I have ANY right to be confident about any of my tipping recently), that he’ll run well & finish top 5. He might even get a nice trail behind Weir’s
Cliff’s Edge or McEvoy’s
Dollar for Dollar. Happy to back him at the price.
Backing: Siege of Quebec 1 x 5 Units
Caulfield – MR 8 – Caulfield Stakes – 2000mIt wouldn’t surprise me to see Lloyd Williams scratch
Homesman from this race before the Cup, next week – I hope so anyway! That said, this is an ideal WFA warm-up for that race & also leading into The Cox Plate in 2 weeks. One would think a number of these are having a final ‘tune up’ ready to run 2nd to Winx at The Valley.
The Charlie Appleby runner, Godolphin’s,
Blair House ran a great last 300m in The Underwood to run 4th. The gate might again cause him some issues here, but at the $15 Powered & $3.80, he’s very much a betting option here
Again, Darren Weir holds the key to the race with 3 high quality runners.
Humidor is a really good chance of winning this race IMO. $9 Powered is very tempting but the $2.60 the Place is a real gift. He runs top 5 for sure here, doesn’t he?
WFA is his go & this distance too is perfect for him. Must go in all Exotics. He almost beat the Mare in last year’s ‘Plate’ & although I think she’s got a mortgage on the race again this year, he can beat her with the right run & a bit of luck – but we’ll discuss that in 2 weeks!
What does
Benbati do from the gate? Do the Godolphin pair work together from the back?
Tosen Basil showed his true worth last start, narrowly beaten in The Underwood – what would’ve the Trifecta paid if he’d got up? Just like Humidor, WFA is his go too. This former Japanese runner is highly capable of winning a race like this. He’ll give a big show from the first 5 in the field & at the $15 Powered & $3.60, he might just have enough in hand to beat this lot.
This should be a fantastic contest & I think it’s the BEST race of the day
– highly worthy of Group 1 status, with a very strong field of high quality gallopers engaged. Very open!
Backing: Tosen Basil 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 (if not scratched – add 8 if he is), 12 (35%) for 4 Units
Randwick – SR 7 – The Everest 1200mI must state from the outset that I am not a fan of this particular event. $13 million in prizemoney is far too steep & doesn’t actually reflect the ‘quality’ of the field IMHO – at this point in its history, at least.
Whilst I understand the intent, I wonder about the ‘sense’ in scheduling such a race in direct competition to the Classics in Melbourne, on the same day. Anyway, enough politics – it’s another race to bet on. The openness of the field in trying to determine a winner is accurately reflected in the odds quoted for the race. 6/1 the field suggests its wide open & probably also reflects the fact that the track conditions could play a role in the likely outcome.
Last year’s winner
Redzel is favourite & rightly so, despite a disappointing effort last start. At the time of writing (Thursday evening), the track is already a Heavy 8 & with more rain expected, both Thursday night & on the day, we can expect that the track condition is unlikely to improve – in fact, more likely to get worse! With this in mind, I’m focussing on proven ‘mudlarks’ & inside gates might actually be a disadvantage.
Jungle Edge loves the wet, having won 7 of 14 with 4 placings on a Heavy Track. For this reason alone, a small wager on him is not silly. He has shortened in price but still $61 Powered & the $11 the Place is very inviting – 1 x 3 Units is a decent bet
. He definitely goes in all Exotics too.
Redzel also has a very good wet track record – having been placed 5 of 6, with 2 wins, Le Romain the same.
The Hayes Camp is very ‘bullish’ about
Vega Magic. He will definitely go forward this year, unlike 2017. He’s a query in the Heavy, but has won 2 of 3 on Soft ground & I think the race will be run to suit the front runners.
Where does
US Army Flag lob? He’s failed in his only start on Heavy ground but remember ‘UK Heavy’ is VERY Heavy ground (one could call it ‘slop’ rather than Heavy). He has placed 4 of 4 on ‘Soft’, winning 3. Discount this bloke at your peril, I say.
Aiden O’Brien doesn’t bring them out here for fun. He’s a genuine Northern Hemisphere Star this horse & I expect him to be handy in the run. Probably about midfield, with cover. $3 the Place is a little short (having not raced in Australia), but might just get better on the day. To back him the win I’d want minimum $12 (currently $10 Powered), but he should go well.
The mare
Shoals has good wet track form (2 from 2 on Soft & 1 from 1 Heavy) & she’s quality - having won 3 x Group 1 races throughout her career. Is she up to this lot? I would suggest Yes, & she’ll be forward in the run too. She’s a bit short for me to back her at $8 Powered, but concede she’s well in the race with a Place chance. Others to have won on Heavy ground are; No. 2, 13 & 14.
I am a big fan of both
Santa Anna Lane &
Brave Smash but their racing patterns might play against them in the Heavy going. As One would expect, a very open race. Exotics might be the go here.
Backing: Jungle Edge 1 x 3 Units & Le Romain 2 x 6 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 (35%) 4 Units
Pick 4: 3, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 / 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 / Field (5%) for 4 Units
There you go Lads, sorry for the length of the Previews.
Really looking forward to the fantastic racing in Melbourne – the Carnival begins!
Let’s hope we can get a couple up.
Caulfield Cup Day next week…