Preview Posted 7:12pm Thursday 08/03/2018
Saturday 10/03/2018 & Monday 12/03/2018Well here we are again, another Autumn Carnival.
Will be interesting to see if the pattern of the previous few years continues in Sydney with Wet/Heavy tracks throughout their Carnival. For Melbourne, we saw the Blue Diamond meeting 2 weeks ago result in an easy victory for the winner, Written By, & Booker had a shocker of a run 3 wide the trip to just miss the place in the Oakleigh Plate – I will be backing up this week.
Last week’s Flemington meeting resulted in number of favourites winning (which you would know by now, for me is not great) & the Great Mare won again. She’s the BEST this country has seen, I doubt anyone can argue with that now. I think she needs to go & beat the Europeans on their ‘turf’ @ Royal Ascot in Winter & perhaps come back for a 4th Cox Plate. Will she stay for ‘The Championships’? Time will tell.
So, to this week...
Headquarters gives us the ‘time honoured’ Newmarket Handicap plus the WFA Australian Cup – a below par field IMHO this year. For the 1st time in a long time, no Melbourne Cup Winner or Cox Plate winner from the previous year, which is disappointing. TBH, the field looks 2nd rate this year, based on the Spring Form of many of these runners. Sydney’s main race of the Day is the Randwick Guineas & Monday is Cup Day here – another below standard field really & appropriately no longer a Group 1 race.
Flemington R6 – The Newmarket Handicap
Unlike the Australian Cup, this field is pretty solid. As I said, I’m backing up with
Booker. She’s got no weight, which is a big advantage & her record at the distance is very good. She will get a far better run here than in her previous start & I’ve taken the ‘powered’ $12 & the $3.30 the place is very acceptable. Happy to back her
2 x 5 Units.
Am wary of a couple of others:
Catchy always runs well & she’s unbeaten 2nd up. You have to be impressed with Redkirk Warrior’s 1st up run & he won this race last year. That said, he rises 5 kgs on that win & I think $7 is as short as you’d want him. I love
Merchant Navy in Melbourne, but he’s far too short for me to back him @ 4/1 the win but
Evens the Place is a good bet IMHO – we could get 5/4 ($2.25) on the Day, I could entertain 10 Units the Place. Brave Smash’s win in The Futurity was impressive but I don’t like sprinters dropping back in distance at their next start, particularly up the straight 6 furlongs. If he wins, you can bet the Trainer will be in tears
Backing
Booker 2 x 5 units & saving on
Merchant Navy 8 units the Place.
Pick 4: 11, 14, 15 / 7, 11, 14, 15 / Field / Field (2%)
Flemington R7 – The Australian Cup
As I said, this field is 2nd Rate IMHO. Yes, Almandin is a Melbourne Cup winner, but he’s now an 8 yr old. Is he the same horse that won the 2016 Cup? The jury’s out, I think. I like the
Taj Mahal as a horse & backed him last year 2nd up when 4th, just beaten into a place in the McKinnon. He could well have a good Autumn & I can see him being very competitive i
n a Ranvet @ WFA at Rosehill over 2400m, but he’s too short at 6/1 1st up in this race. I can entertain backing
Hartnell, particularly @ the current
$2.60 on offer the Place. The boosted $10 the win is the best price he’s been for a long time. Taking him
1 x 4 Units.
The interesting runner is Weir’s Japanese horse
Ambious, can’t back him but still interested to see how he goes.
Homesman’s run 1st up was impressive & he will be improved by that run, so happy to put him in the multiples.
Backing
Hartnell 1 x 4 UnitsBox Trifecta: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10 (40%)
Randwick R7 – The Randwick Guineas
This race over the Mile has many runners on an ATC Derby trail, one would think.
Kementari has clearly come back in great form & is the one to beat here. It ‘Maps’ well from the draw & gets the gun run from the gate. I can’t back it at the short quote, but concede it’s the one to beat.
I think the distance might tell on
Trapeze Artist & think he’ll be feeling it with 100m to go. His racing pattern suggests that he’ll need it ‘quiet’ up front to hang on over the final furlong & I don’t think that will happen because Gai’s runner will set a strong ‘clip’, I think. That runner, (No. 11)
Siege of Quebec, is well over the odds & if Reith gets an easy run in front, at a good tempo, I can see him being right in the finish. For that reason alone, I’m prepared to have a small wager the Place on it, not to mention the 'Randwick Mile' & Gai's record in these races.
I want to back the Waller runner
Kaonic (No. 12). 3rd Up, good gate & jockey, plus it drops 2 ½ kgs on its previous start.
Record at the distance is perfect & I think he’s been set for this race.
1 x 4 Units.
Backing
Kaonic 1 x 4 &
Siege of Quebec 3 units the PlacePick 4: 3, 5, 11, 12/ 3, 5, 11, 12/ Field / Field (2%)
Randwick R6 – Canterbury Stakes
Don’t like the race. Field is too small & the prices too compressed - $5 the Field.
Randwick R4 – The Todman Stakes
There’s one here I’m keen to follow, despite its poor showing in the Blue Diamond 2 weeks ago in Melbourne,
Plague Stone.
Gate 14 is a worry but McEvoy in the seat may well compensate for that. He’s going to need to use all his powers to get this bloke into a decent spot, but if he can, the
Powered $21 is very appealing. The fact that Cummings has scratched the other Godolphin runner, suggests a small wager might be prudent. He has won a trial this way of going & ran 2nd in a 5 ½ furlong race this way too. The Top 2 are the ‘shorties’ in the race but I am prepared to gamble on this one,
1 x 3 Units.
Backing
Plague Stone 1 x 3 unitsMonday 12/03/2018 ...
Morphettville R7 – Adelaide Cup
Seriously, this is a weak field of ‘stayers’ – it’s just a race. Group 2 is its appropriate level IMHO.
Interestingly, most of the Victorian visitors have been meeting each other in the same races over the past months.
As with all 2 Mile races, weights & luck in running will play no small part in the final result. Weir & Hayes have 3 runners each (of 18), Robbie Laing has 2.
It would be great to see Leon McDonald win it or Clare Lindop win it in her last race day – personally, can’t see either winning but concede Place chances to both.
As always, I’m looking for Value in the race, & the one I’ve settled on is the one I know will run the distance – the Hayes runner No. 10,
Al Haram.
From the gate, I can see Dee taking him to the back of the field.
He’s going to need luck coming around the turn from the 800m to the 400m, but he will be running on. If he can get clear running in the straight, he might just run them down. The massive price is nice & in such a ‘crap shoot’ of a race, I’m looking to collect on the Place dividend. If he wins, bonus!
Backing
Al Haram 1 x 5 Units.
Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 16 (30%)
There you go, Lads. Looking forward to a great Autumn. Let’s hope the weather stays fine.
Until next week … Happy Punting!
Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:06 pm
( First all up I've got in months! )