07/10/2017 (Time Posted: 7:00pm Wednesday, 04/10/17)
Not too bad last week – the Trifecta in Tom Melbourne’s race was handy, although it would’ve paid much better if he’d won, but the $200+ is good enough. He seems to manage to get into ‘traffic trouble’ more often than not & this contributes to his status as a ‘Non-Winner’, don’t you think?
Let’s gloss over Grande Rosso, embarrassing but perhaps not suited by the fast pace of the Rupert Clarke?
So to ‘Headquarters’ in both cities this week, with
Winx going to ‘Mexico’ for a lead up run anti-clockwise, before her attempt @ immortality.
Flemington -
MR 5 Turnbull StakesThis is not a WFA Race but a Handicap. She’s well weighted for mine @ 1 kg below WFA but $1.15???
Think she wins because she’s the ‘class’ in the race but Humidor will be stalking her down the straight. He is so suited to Flemington but he carries WFA & she doesn’t, on that alone you have to say she wins. Suggest we just sit back & marvel. No bet for me.
Flemington -
MR 7 The Bart CummingsYou couldn’t but be impressed with
Almandin’s previous win over the same distance @ the same track, 2 weeks ago – he was awesome.
To be fair, he had all the favours with a strong pace up front but he blew them away over the last Furlong & a half. The stable mate
Crocodile Rock ran well to run 2nd but he was a long way behind – I can see him running in the ‘Lexus’ (or whatever that’s called this year) on Derby Day & probably gets a run in the Melbourne Cup too if he runs well here & in that race.
Tally is an interesting runner here. It gets a start in the Caulfield Cup because the Mornington Cup winner is exempt from the ballot – so this is clearly a lead up run for that race, being 2 weeks out. For this reason, I can entertain
a PLACE ticket on it, as I can see him winding up over the last 2 furlongs, down the outside.
The value in the race is
Yogi, IMHO. If you take a line through the JRA Trophy run (won by
Almandin), then the differential in price between Croc Rock & Yogi is too large. The
$26 Power Play is nice & the $4.40 the Place is a better bet than Croc Rock. Yendall has been riding well recently, so happy to have a ‘throw at the stumps’ but
Almandin is the one to beat, obviously. Bets:
Yogi: 2 Units by 5;
Tally 3 Units PlaceTrifectas: 1,9/ 1,9/ Field; 1,11/ 1,11/ Field; 9,11/9,11/Field
Flemington -
MR 8 The BlazerReckon there’s one here that’s way over the odds – Weir’s Mare
Kenedra.
The 7 Furlongs may be a touch short but
$61 enhanced & $11 the Place is worth a Punt IMHO. Placed 4 of 5 starts 2nd up. She’s no doubt being set for something a little longer (like The Myer on Derby Day over the Mile, or even a Caulfield Classic over 2000m) but
watch for her hitting the line late in this race. She’s 2 from 2 second up & placed 50% Track & Distance. Will need some luck from the inside gate & she does go back, but maybe she circles the field from the top of the straight &
worth a cheeky 1 x 3 Units @ the huge odds, I reckon.
If
Prompt Response gets a ‘soft lead’ then she’ll be hard to run down &
Petition gets her chance to win a good race. Gotta love the big fields as there’s some value on offer if you can ‘pluck’ a winner.
Randwick –
SR 7 The Spring Champion StakesIs it me, or is this year’s Race a bit lower in ‘quality’ than previous years?
Which of these runners goes to Melbourne for The Guineas next week? Do any?
Or can we find a ‘Derby Horse’ from this lot?
I’m thinking the Sydney 3 yr olds are better than their Melbourne counterparts, so the Derby winner could well come out of this race (or next week’s Guineas). Of this lot,
Ace High is 2nd favourite for the Derby @ $9,
Sully is $15 & next is the Godolphin runners
Astoria &
Sanctioned @ $17, along with
Tangled - I think these prices alone support the view that this year’s Spring Champion is a bit below par.
Of the 10 runners, 6 come through the Gloaming (1800m), 3 the Dulcify (1600m) & 1 runner a Maiden @ the Gold Coast!
The Gloaming is probably the superior form race, so looking @ those runners I can entertain backing
Sully @ the enhanced price of $10. If you go back through his form, he ran 2nd to Levendi in the Autumn over the unsuitable 6 Furlongs. He was beaten by 5 lengths in the Gloaming, but that was his first go ‘clockwise’, so willing to risk that run. 4th up here & in this field 2nd fav for The Derby, happy to have a small wager on him @ the price.
2 x 5 Units.
Trifectas: 4,6/4,6/ Field; 4,7/4,7/Field; 6,7/6,7/ Field
Randwick -
SR 8 The AngstLast week I stated that a Randwick Mile Race = Gai.
She’s got 2 runners in the field,
My True Love & the ‘well bred’,
Savapinski.
My True Love is unbeaten 2nd up. She does like to lead (what a shock for a Waterhouse runner) so the gate is a bit of a concern & she does find it hard to win. That said, perhaps the stablemate pushes forward from the inside & My True Love gets 1 out, 1 back behind Lovani or Imposing Lass. Also, the fact that Schofield rides is what pushes me toward her rather than the stable mate. The
$3.10 the PLACE is good enough to cover the bet, so the
Powered $11 is takeable.
3 Units x 7 Units.
Trifectas: 2,3/2,3/Field; 2,10/2,10/Field; 3,10/3,10/Field
Certainly hotting up with the Caulfield Carnival over the next 2 weeks & then Cox Plate & Flemington to follow in the weeks after.
Happy Punting Lads.
Posted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:57 pm
... Winx was awesome though
